(Photo: Jacek Bartosiak)
This is by all means fascinating reading, describing the forthcoming relentless Pacific War from the perspective of the interests of the Japanese Empire. The author was not only a fleet intelligence officer but actually the chief liaison officer between the Japanese foreign affairs ministry and the Japanese fleet command, which was the most powerful and influential component of the Japanese armed forces, wielding decisive influence over the political decisions of the Empire and the course of the war itself.
The author was also a member of the powerful Black Dragon Association, which had an increasing influence on the policy of the Japanese government. Members of the Black Dragon, operating in China, Russia, Korea, Indochina, plus other Asian countries and even in the USA, pursued the imperial goals of Japan for several decades, using methods that we would today call methods of Hybrid War or New-Generation Warfare, dealing with propaganda, the dissemination of false information, espionage, sabotage, disinformation, intelligence and subversive activities, political destabilisation, political killings, bribing and the broadly understood building of agent influence and networks, all for the benefit of the interests of the Japanese Empire.
(Photo: Jacek Bartosiak)
After its publication in Tokyo, this book fell into the hands of people who were opposed to the growth of power of the Japanese Empire in East Asia and who translated it and then passed it on to the Americans, who eventually published it in Boston in 1942.
The content makes it possible to reproduce well-mapped mental maps of the Japanese leadership on the eve of the war. It was written from the perspective of a person directly involved in building the might of Japan as an emerging superpower that would establish a new world order with the help of Germany and Italy by pushing the interests of the US and Great Britain out of eastern Eurasia in this way – the book also describes how the Germans and Italians will do the same in Europe. The book was written right after the Axis alliance was formed and was based on a conviction that a new global order should be built.
From the author’s acknowledgements alone, it is clear that the publication had the support of the Japanese Navy and governmental departments. Matsuo had already written books on American-Japanese relations, including the crisis of the League of Nations, which is clear from the content of the Tokyo publisher’s note.
Of course, the conditions of the Pacific theatre of war were described in detail, along with its proposed course, with a very thorough reference to the description of the geostrategic significance of specific places in the Southern and Western Pacific and in the Indian Ocean. In particular, this applies to places such as Hawaii, Yap, Guam, the Philippines, Singapore, Hong Kong and the South China Sea – i.e. a place known to us from the current geostrategic competition between the US and China.
The author with great enthusiasm also describes the game of systematic balance between Japan and the United Kingdom and the United States, with a significant share of rivalry between them for the control of colonised space in China and (which is very valuable) with the key-because-pivotal (i.e. ‘pin’) role of the Soviet Union in the whole game, to which he devotes a lot of description. It is especially worth recommending to Polish readers to trace the logic of thinking from a Japanese perspective. You can learn a lot about Tokyo’s role in the game of the balance in Eurasia, according to Tokyo. And it is different than the commonly accepted belief in Poland.
The author describes the future battle for Singapore, Guam, Midway, the Philippines, Hawaii, as well as the anticipated naval battle for California and the Panama Canal. At the same time, he predicted the possibility of an American bombing raid on Tokyo. Of course he did not foresee the rapid development of strategic bomber aviation or the development of nuclear weapons, but let’s agree – this was not easy to predict.
With amazing detail, he describes the importance of Singapore with its British fleet base, which like a hinge enabled the British to be present in Asia and to emphasise the importance of Hong Kong. It is clear how Singapore’s sea fortress and British presence there must have iritated the Japanese.
At the very end of the book there is also a reference to Poland and our September war of 1939, described in the wider context of the balancing game in Europe and Asia, again with the key-rotational role of the Soviet Union. Here again, the Japanese perspective could be fascinating for Poles and other nations of the Baltic-Black Sea Bridge, which were the subject of the game of world powers in the Second World War.
It turns out that in Tokyo, Stalin’s every move was carefully observed, seeing that he had full room for manoeuvre in the upcoming game. It was believed that the Soviets took advantage of the situation of Moscow’s geopolitical independence from Great Britain and the United States, which gave them room for manoeuvre to subordinate eastern Poland, the Baltic states, Finland and Romania. As the author – Kinoaki Matsuo – wrote, the Soviets with their structural interdependence were watched constantly, to see whether or not they would enter the war on the side of the side of the Axis countries and to preserve the negotiating field with the Anglo-Saxons, whose interests were directly threatened by the aspirations of Japan, Germany and Italy.
For those dealing with the current Chinese-American rivalry, the dilemmas of the great game in Eurasia are frightening, especially when reading a book that is like a reflex from the era. It turns out that we still have the same or very similar considerations and arguments, the same places, the same powers, similar sanctions and the fight for control of strategic flows, the same narrow sea passages that determine the fate of East Asia.
This is a fascinating book, which I would recommend to everyone. Written in 1940, it treats the growing rivalry in East Asia and the Pacific as a real war for domination, which only lacks the kinetic element, but which is inevitably coming, which you need to prepare for, perhaps even by making a preventative strike, because this is the logic of the theatre of war in the Pacific. In this way, the book’s content can serve as a memento in the present.
Autor
Jacek Bartosiak
CEO and Founder of Strategy&Future, author of bestselling books.
Strategy&Future
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