Sochi – Russia’s southern capital (photo: Pixabay)
It turned out that the Russian Black Sea Fleet would not be able to stop Western forces from destroying Sochi – the southern, informal, second capital of Russia, where Vladimir Putin stays (like Stalin before him) for up to six months each year. Russian military told Putin that modern Western fleet situational awareness systems and long-range land attack cruise missiles could dominate the sky over Sochi and strike any Russian targets throughout the Black Sea basin.
As a result of this shock, Russian leadership planned actions aimed to strengthen the Black Sea Fleet, including restoring cruise missiles to be deployed from submarines and to introduce a Bastion coastal defense missile system. Nevertheless, without full control of Crimea and followed by the vast expansion of the Black Sea Fleet, modernisation measures would not change the overall negative balance of power in the Black Sea, that took hold after the collapse of the Soviet empire.
To change the system, you do not like you must meet a basic condition. In the southern European perimeter you must be able to block the passage of NATO ships through the Bosporus. To achieve this goal, you need to have a forward sea presence at the foreword perimeter well behind the Bosporus in the Mediterranean.
In this way, the Turkish Straits would be defended on their maritimes approaches from the western navies and before entering the Black Sea. Then the Bosporus becomes the first bolted position to be defended on the outskirts of the Mediterranean, moving the possibility of action away from the Black Sea basin, which becomes an additional internal buffer, shielding the Crimea and the Don and Volga areas – that is, the soft underbelly of Russia. And of course the southern capital – Sochi.
And so the Soviet Union did at its zenith, dislocating the Mediterranean squadron from the Black Sea Fleet. At its peak, it numbered 30-50 ships and its primary task was to block the freedom of action of the American Sixth Fleet operating in the Mediterranean Sea and additionally to support Arab client countries.
The Soviet Union, which was never a real naval power, ended its life, and with it ended the Black Sea squadron escapades into the Mediteranean. The Black Sea, like the Baltic, ceased to be dominated by the continental empire. That opened these waters to the world ocean and to the influence of the American naval power that came to landlocked eastern European peninsula with NATO and the economic and political expansion of the West that brought also the advent of democratic systems.
The focus was on securing the port of Tartus and providing air cover for land operations and providing sea communication to the air base in Hmeymim in Syria.
In general, it can be said that the Russian fleet coped poorly with the task set for it in Moscow. This is evidenced by the fact that as part of the Russian armed forces, which are undergoing major organisational shifts, navy does not get adequate influence on the highest and most important military tenures in Russia.
Of course, we all remembered when frigates, corvettes and submarines repeatedly attacked with Kalibr missiles a number of targets in Syria, including the first famous attack on October 7, 2015, Putin’s birthday. That day, four Caspian flotilla corvettes fired 26 Kalibr NK 3M14 missiles with a range of 1500 km over Iran and Iraq to targets in Syria.
Later, ships were also used for such attacks: a total of about 25 volleys and 140 missiles, including by frigates of the Black Sea Fleet from the Mediterranean from a distance usually about 100 miles from the coast of Syria. On average, one salvo consisted of 4-8 missiles.
Kilo-class submarines also fired cruise missiles – a total of about 40 pieces on an average distance of 400-900 km deep into Syria. The Kalibr missiles themselves proved to be a good weapon system, but the Russians do not have enough of them in their warehouses – just like the French during high-profile French actions in Libya and Syria.
Taormina near the Strait of Sicily, which divides the Mediterranean into the west and east (photo: Pixabay)
It should also be remembered that the fighting Syrian factions, on which the Kalibr missiles were tested, do not have anti-aircraft defence or modern radars, so it can be said that this weapon has not been properly tested against a professional, sophisticated opponent. They are also rather expensive – up to USD 6.5 million for one piece. And although they are theoretically difficult to detect, it is not known what the result of their use was, except to demonstrate to the Americans and Western countries a capability to strike far.
The squadron left Sievieromorsk from the Northern Fleet. While traveling along the Rimland of Europe, particularly spectacularly on the English Channel, Kuznetsov literally dragged at less than 10 nautical miles per hour and smoked mercilessly, which indicated serious engine failure and poor propulsion of the ship. Anyway, after returning to its home port in February 2017, the ship was moored waiting for repairs. The repair continues to this day.
Kuznetsov takes up to 50 planes and helicopters on board, but when she passed Gibraltar she only had 10 Su-33 and 4 new mig29K with her, plus a few helicopters.
Since Kuznetsov has no catapult, the planes take off from the ramp with the help of afterburners, but in this case the low speed of the ship (it needs to be at least 20 nautical miles) prevented combat launch. In total, on-board aircraft made only 420 combat flights over Syria, of which as many as 2/3 from land bases in Syria. Two planes by the way crashed from the sea due to a chassis failure and poor pilot training.
The powerful battlecruiser Pyotr Velikiy did not take part in almost any action, because it did not have the capacity to strike at land from the sea; now this is to change with the ongoing renovation at the shipyard.
This was done thanks to the mobilisation of a landing fleet which included ships made in the PRL – the Toad 775 project, which can carry a Russian marine battalion and 12 tanks with supplies.
In addition, civilian ships were bought in Turkey, Greece and even Ukraine, after which they were repainted to the military colours belonging to the Black Sea fleet (although the crews on them are civil). All so that they would not be stopped by the Turks on the Bosporus.
The presence of the Russians in the Eastern Mediterranean, in Syria, and in particular in Libya, would potentially make the Black Sea an internal lake of Eurasia, and if the anti-access A2AD systems were deployed in the Sicilian Strait and in the eastern Mediterranean and the presence of the Chinese fleet coming through the Suez from the east would grow changing the balance of forces in Europe intersecting the former British imperial line of maritime communication stretching through Malta and Suez to the Indian Ocean. In addition monopolising control of strategic flows between Asia and Europe, in this case on the critical sea route.
Autor
Jacek Bartosiak
CEO and Founder of Strategy&Future, author of bestselling books.
Strategy&Future
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