“Defender Europe 2020”
On January 29, the Secretary of State of the Security Council of Belarus Andrei Ravkov received Jennifer Moore, US Chargé d’Affaires in Minsk, with the military attaches of the United States, Germany and Poland accompanying her. The meeting discussed issues of Belarusian-American interaction, as well as touching upon problems of international and regional security in the context of plans for large-scale military exercises “Defender Europe 2020.” In this regard, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko instructed to develop plans for a response to the deployment of NATO and US military contingents at their borders. It is important to note that NATO announced the exercises in spring but at the same time in Moscow the Colonel General Anatoly Sidorov, Chief of the Joint Staff of the Collective Security Treaty Organization has stated that CSTO is planning to conduct military drills. During the command-and-staff exercise “Indestructible Brotherhood 2020” (Нерушимое Братство), which will be held in the East European region and Caucasus, will be worked out on the challenges of use of the CSTO peacekeeping forces. Russia sees NATO exercises as a “direct provocation against Russia.”
On January 30, by order of the Minister of Defense of Belarus, under the leadership of the Chief of the General Staff a comprehensive check of the combat readiness of the Armed Forces was launched. The main purpose of the comprehensive check is to determine the ability of military command, control bodies and commanders to manage subordinate military units and subunits, and to assess the readiness of military units and subunits of the Armed Forces to fulfill their mission in a rapidly changing environment. Troop actions will take place at training grounds and individual sections of terrain. Close attention will be paid to the state of technology and weapons, as well as to the operation of the supporting systems.
Lithuania and Poland will each assign a brigade to the NATO headquarters in Poland to “train and act together” for the defence of the Suwalki Gap. In Vilnius, the two countries on Wednesday signed an act of affiliation between Lithuania’s Iron Wolf Mechanised Brigade and Poland’s 15th Mechanised Brigade and have assigned them to the NATO’s Multinational Division North East headquarters, with the task to “train and act together in order to protect the Suwalki Gap”. The brigades will remain under the command of their respective countries, but NATO headquarters will be able to train with them in joint military exercises.
The first Lithuanian-led EU cyber rapid response teams began their rotation in 2020, according to the country’s Defence Ministry. The CRRTs include 6-8 cybersecurity experts from Lithuania, Poland, the Netherlands and Romania, and will continue working on defining operational procedures and toolkits. The force will be able to respond to incidents within 72 hours after receiving requests from states, EU bodies, or military missions. In future, the teams will be tasked with responding to cyberattacks on all EU institutions and operations. It is part of the EU’s Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), a network of defence programmes developed by the member states.
America visits Belarus; Minsk welcomes Russia jealousy observing…
State Secretary Mike Pompeo arrived in Minsk for what promises to be an unprecedented event for relations between Minsk and Washington. The last meetings of such level took place 25 years ago. He promised to provide Belarus 100% of its energy supplies. Thus, it is time to wait for the Russian response – would the Kremlin able to make concessions to Belarus after Pompeo’s visit or will it continue its pressure on Belarus?
In Belarus, an analytical centeris discussing Polish-Ukrainian relations in the military sphere which are not as peaceful as they seem. Logically it is possible to anticipate that the two countries, in this writer’s opinion, have a common enemy in the Russian Federation. However, the Polish military leadership, despite openly declaring a “Russian threat from the East,” sees Ukraine as an equally threatening factor to Polish security. First of all, this is evidenced by active measures to form a new division in the Polish ground forces, most of whose formations and units will be deployed near the Polish-Ukrainian border. At the same time, the 18th mechanized division should become the most powerful in composition in the Polish Army. Moreover, the intensity of the exercises of the Polish army in the areas bordering Ukraine has significantly increased in recent years.
In the town of Nowa Dęba, located 100 km from the Ukrainian border, two brigade tactical exercises were held for the first time simultaneously. On January 20-24, a command post exercise (CPX) with students of the War Studies Academy under the name “Twierdza-20” was held in Przemysl, just a few kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Despite the small composition of CPX participants from the Polish Armed Forces – only about 200 people, all of them are senior officers in ranks from major to colonel. In this regard, Twierdza-20 is actually acquiring state significance. The proof of this is the deployment of the Subcarpathian Voivodeship Crisis Response Center for the period of the exercise, which is usually carried out only in wartime and in extremely significant emergency situations.
America visits Ukraine…
President Vladimir Zelensky said to Pompeo that he was ready to fly to the United States at a moment’s notice if he had a package of important agreements for Ukraine that he could sign there. This is a direct sign that he is not ready to be part of political struggle inside the United States. Furthermore, he expressed hope that the United States would be more actively involved in the processes of a peaceful settlement in eastern Ukraine and the de-occupation of Crimea due to the appointment of a separate official from the State Department on this issue. It will be interesting to see if the U.S. appoints a person that might cover both Donbas and Crimea, because Kurt Volker was officially responsible only for Donbas. In turn, the State Secretary had a meeting with the Metropolitan of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine Epiphanies. Russia claims that Pompeo has special direction in his foreign policy towards strengthening any potential anti-Russian position that emerges within Orthodox Christianity. Actually, Pompeo usually has regular meetings with Orthodox priests in every Orthodox country, but is clear that he supports the idea of the independence of the Ukrainian Church from Moscow.
The United States, Canada and the European Union introduced new sanctions on Russia for violating Ukrainian sovereignty in Crimea. A total of eight individuals and a railway company face restrictive measures in the form of asset freezes in the US over their involvement in annexed Crimea. Among those sanctioned were the prime minister of the “Republic of Crimea” and senior officials in the city of Sevastopol. US sanctions freeze all property belonging to the individuals and entities, and prohibit US persons from transacting with them. The U.S. State Department promised to continue sanctioning Russia for the annexation of Crimea.
In Odessa, representatives of the Ukrainian Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the US Coast Guard are negotiating the transfer of patrol boats such as “Island.” Reportedly, the first two boats will be part of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in May 2021. First the transfer of two boats from the U.S. Coast Guard to the Ukrainian Navy took place on September 27, 2018 at a naval base in Baltimore (Maryland, USA). They reached Odessa only in October 2019. It seems highly likely that these boats will be used for purposes of deterring Russia in the west part of the Black Sea.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Oleksiy Goncharuk said that Ukrzaliznytsia could be handed over to the German national railway operator Deutsche Bahn AG for 10 years. The Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine and the German national railway operator Deutsche Bahn AG in Davos, Switzerland signed a memorandum of understanding. Whilst it should be noted that it is still unclear whether or not Germany will be ready to invest huge amounts of money to an aging Soviet-built system of railways and infrastructure, this is a sign both for both for Russia and the Americans that the Germans are increasing their economic and political presence in Ukraine, at least according to what has been announced. Ukrainian Instability actually plays against the prospect that such investments will be realized unless Putin and Merkel will appease the conflict in Ukraine. So far, the German railway operator Deutsche Bahn can delegate 15 senior representatives to work with UZ. But this will happen after DB specialists examine the situation in the UZ and coordinate development plans with the Ukrainian side. Concurrently, Ukraine is planning to build the new Sknilov-Mostiska railway with the European gauge standard 1435mm. Until now from Ukraine to Poland it possible to reach only by Soviet-built railway from Lviv to Przemysl. The new line would increase passenger traffic on the Ukraine-EU direction to 634 thousand people a year by running three trains daily. Among the other benefits of the investment project is integration with the European railway network and access of railway enterprises of the EU to the railway network of ultrasound. The estimated cost of the project is $ 20.8 million. The expected project implementation date is 2021. Actually this is the greatest chance to make true infrastructural commitments in Ukraine, for example by concession. Germany is claiming its desires for an economic presence in the country, but Erdogan already enjoys huge benefits from it, especially in terms of military cooperation. On February 3 he is planning to arrive in Ukraine to negotiate a Turkish-Ukrainian Free Trade Agreement.
If in the Eastern direction economic expansion is facing some political obstacles, in the European direction (in Germany), Warsaw has some successes, but these attempts of Poland to extend its economic activities are facing opposition from Germany. Polish carrier LOT is acquiring Thomas Cook’s German airline Condor, creating a leading aviation group in Europe carrying more than 20 million passengers a year. The two airlines have confirmed the deal, which will allow the combined entity to serve 20 million passengers a year. LOT’s owner has insisted a €380 million German government bridging loan will be repaid. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki hailed the purchase saying: “Up until now foreign companies have been taking over Polish precious assets, now it is the other way round!” The merger brings together two firms of almost the same size, with the Polish firm booking revenues of €1.9 billion in 2019, compared to Condor’s €1.7 billion in its 2018-19 financial years. Nevertheless, Condor will continue to operate under their current brand and management. The trickiest issue here that Condor is traditionally competing with Lufthansa and TUI fly and if LOT managed to merge with the German company, Poland would be crucial player in the market. In response, Lufthansa intends to terminate cooperation with Condor as soon as it can and does not want to support the Polish competitor. Additionally, Lufthansa is also considering complaining about the use of state aid by LOT to the European Commission.
The energy security of Ukraine is now taking on a new dimension because usually Ukraine had some resources of energy from its own deposits but now the situation is changing. The 5 largest gas fields of Ukrgasvydobuvannya, have been depleted by more than 80%. The state-owned company is exploring new sites.
Lithuania
A new small load of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Russian gas company Novatek, the 17th in the new gas year that began in October, is on its way to Klaipeda port.
Lithuania will seek to host a regional EU Civil Protection Center tasked with responding to chemical, biological, radiation and nuclear incidents. The Lithuanian government on Wednesday endorsed plans for the country to submit an application to set up the center that would cover the Nordic and Baltic countries.
Romania
Romanian oil and gas group OMV Petrom might be interested in taking over the stake of its partner – US group ExxonMobil – in the Neptun Deep offshore gas project in Romania’s Black Sea section. OMV Petrom and ExxonMobil hold 50% of the project each, Exxon also being the operator. Black Sea Oil And Gas (owned by the American fund Carlyle), which has already decided to invest in the exploitation of another gas perimeter in the Black Sea, and an association headed by Cox Oil, are interested as well. This is actually quite interesting because Russia already controls the entire Eastern part of the Black Sea, and only a small piece of the sea is left in the western part. Moreover, Zelensky has invited American business to develop the shelf of the Black Sea too.
Moldova
President of the Republic of Moldova Igor Dodon said during his speech from the tribune of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe that the status of neutrality of the Republic of Moldova will contribute to strengthening security in the region – “I would like to see Moldova no longer considered pro-Russian, pro-European, pro-American or pro-Romanian.” He mentioned that his country is divided geopolitically. Former Foreign Minister of Moldova and Director of the Wider Europe program at the ECFR think tank, Nicu Popescu, has stated that international recognition of Moldova’s neutrality “is quite dangerous, [and] may limit even dialogue with the EU.” Popescu meant that due to the conditions set in place by such status, the European future of such a country is uncertain.
Moreover, Popescu warned President Dodon about the chances that Moldova will receive a favorable loan (from 300 to 500 million dollars) from Russia. The Russian Federation is not a very generous partner even for its allies. Look at what President Lukashenko says about the Russian Federation, look at what former President Nazarbayev says about the relationship with the Russian Federation. Everyone is very frustrated because the Russian Federation is not a very generous partner, unlike the European Union or the United States.
Commentary:
Moldova is changing. Igor Dodon under the auspices of Russian protection reached out to Americans and Moldavian opposition in arguing that they are altogether rid of local oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc. Plahotniuc for many years led Russian initiatives in the country but for the West he was a corrupt leader. Eventually, Dodon won over both the corrupt leader and the pro-European opposition. Now he is planning to concentrate all his efforts to remain in power in the upcoming Presidential elections in 2020. Russia is ready in her terms to allow scenarios of the federalization of Moldova and by a policy of “small steps” to bring Tiraspol and Kishinev closer. Eventually, according to this scenario, Tiraspol will have “special status” in the country. This prospect scares Ukrainian politicians because it is exactly what Russia wants from Ukraine – a “special status” for two separatist regions. The appointment of Dmitry Kozak in Russia as a person that will be responsible for Ukraine in Putin’s Administration is raising concerns amongst the Ukrainian establishment because previously he was responsible for Moldova and advocated plans for its federalization. Interestingly, this week Dodon mentioned that Moldova has its own language, which deeply irritated Romania.
Autor
Ridvan Bari Urcosta
Senior Analyst at Strategy&Future
Strategy&Future
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