(goodfon.ru)
Military Life has not stopped, it continues
Despite COVID-19, militaries are trying to keep the military readiness of the allies in full combat readiness. Particularly, at the times when the Russian disinformation warfare has been activated in recent weeks. The Lithuanian Defense Minister Raimundas Karoblis stated that Allied troops also “fall victims to the corona fake news quite often” and called to strengthen EU and NATO cooperation.
Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace, a leading supplier of remote weapon stations, has been awarded a contract for delivering its Protector Remote Weapon Station (RWS) to Lithuanian Armed Forces in a $170.8 million Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program, that is a part of the United States Army Common Remotely Operated Weapon Station (CROWS) program and includes a request for Oshkosh Defense Joint Light Tactical Vehicles (JLTV).
From April 13 to 18 near Daugavpils, at the Meža Mackeviči training ground (“Forest Matskevichi”), the Steel Brawler exercises (“Steel buoy”) are held. These maneuvers “are aimed at improving the NATO expanded combat presence group deployed in Latvia and at coordinating the actions of the armed forces.” About 600 soldiers and 100 pieces of military equipment participate in the Steel Brawler exercises. At the same time, a strict ban on mass events has been introduced for the civilian population of Latvia for several weeks now. But, apparently, it does not apply to the military, especially foreign ones.
The Estonian Defense Forces Commander has notified that the Kevadtorm (Spring Storm) exercises scheduled for April 21 through May 22 will take place at the appointed time – although they will be conducted in a reduced format than originally planned. Reservists will not be called upon for them, but military personnel from NATO’s foreign contingent located in Estonia will be involved. Maneuvers will concentrate mainly within the central army training ground.
For Estonian officers, this is a huge disappointment, because at first it was assumed that the “Spring Storm” will cover a significant part of the territory of the state.
Military units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are being trained at the military training ground near Uzhgorod. The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, the Defense Minister of Ukraine Andriy Taran and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Colonel-General Ruslan Khomchak attended the training. The training is supported by Air Force fighter jets, reconnaissance and transport aircraft, Army aviation transport helicopters and engineering units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. As we can see, Ukraine does not avoid military trainings in spite of the Covid-19.
The Swedish government has asked the parliament to issue an approval of the sale of two used submarines to Poland: HSwMS “Södermanland” and HSwMS “Östergötland”. The government also indicated that those vessels shall be operated by the Polish Navy. In case of a positive response from the Parliament, Sweden would need to receive funds from Poland covering at least the cost of modernization, training and future maintenance. The submarines are not new and they need to be modernized, but for Polish Navy they can be a serious enforcement.
Belarus
The United States has named their first ambassador to Belarus in more than a decade. Washington has previously pledged Minsk to help build a sovereign country, as recent months saw a flurry of activity between Vilnius, as well as the EU and the US diplomats, and Belarus. The US President Donald Trump announced on April 20 that he intended to nominate career diplomat Julie Fisher, a top State Department official for Europe, to the embassy in Minsk.
Fisher previously held assignments at NATO and served in Russia, Georgia and Ukraine. The United States recalled their ambassador to Minsk in 2008, when the authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko ordered a reduction of the US diplomatic staff in the country. The U.S. move will irritate the Russian Federation, but current business with Coronavirus may both postpone the appointment in the U.S. and make Russia more amenable. Fisher’s nomination comes at a crucial time for Belarus; after Lukashenko bucked Moscow during December negotiations regarding tightening of the Union State, the Kremlin has sought to heap pressure on Minsk by hiking up oil and gas prices. The former has been particularly painful for Minsk, since it sources a significant part of its revenue from refining Russian crude. Lukashenko has responded to Russian pressure by a PR campaign coupled with taking some steps towards diversifying oil sources. This in turn resulted in secretary Pompeo’s visit to Minsk in February, a number of contracts being signed with third party oil suppliers and some discussions with Warsaw regarding building up oil pipelines that would feed oil shipped to refineries in Belarus (via Gdańsk).
On April 8, in Belarus conducted an online conference “Belarus Energy: From Politics to Economics” and recently they have presented outcomes of this conference. First, the outcome that Alexander Lukashenka almost achieved relative victory in negotiations with Russia, but that this was possible only due to the external factors: Covid-19; the OPEC+ “Oil Deal” and the subsequent fall of oil prices.
The price of $30 per ton declared by the Belarusian authorities now looks excellent compared to the price at which Belarus bought Russian oil in January – $360 per ton. But this price is unlikely to be static, because the global situation is very dynamic. On gas, on the contrary, Belarus has a contract with a fixed price of $127 per thousand cubic meters, which is much higher than the market under current conditions: the Belarusian authorities declare a fair price of $40-45. Like other buyers of Russian gas, Belarus is interested in lowering this price, but there are no clear mechanisms to force Russia to abandon the agreements favorable to it. Minsk even announced its plans for filling out its reservoirs with cheap Russia oil until it is possible to be done.
Alternative sources of oil are still on agenda, but for instance the Ukrainian route is much more expensive than oil from Russia. The port of Odessa, taking into account its technical capabilities, can unload a tanker per week for 80-100 thousand tons of oil. Thus, the limit of oil supplies to Belarus by sea through Odessa is 3.8-4.8 million tons per year (subject to uninterrupted contracts and navigation).
Belarusian experts are forecasting that this and the following year can bring huge economic challenges to the country, because the Belarusian budget is still completely devoid of foreign exchange earnings for oil and oil products, which reduces the budget’s ability to service external debt. At such a speed of spending the gold and currency reserves as now, by the end of the year they will be exhausted so much that they will have to close the currency markets.
Belarus continues to develop its relations with various international financial organizations: the IMF, the World Bank and the European Investment Bank. Earlier, the IMF announced its readiness to provide up to $40 billion for these purposes to middle-income countries, given the sharp deterioration in the global economic situation in connection with the coronavirus pandemic. Based on the conditions of access to the quick financing tool, Belarus may qualify for an amount equivalent to approximately $900 million. Belarus counts on loans from the World Bank (90 million euros) and the European Investment Bank (50 million euros) to combat COVID-19. Moreover, the EBRD plans to invest on the territory of Ukraine around $400 million, but Minsk demands more than that – $1 billion from EBRD. At the same time, China has already sent medical equipment to Belarus thought to be worth $1.6 million in total.
Baltic States
The Baltic States are facing a serious challenge. From one side, they need to maintain all measures against the spreading of coronavirus in their countries and from the other, they need to send a message to the east that their armies are able to conduct all necessary military precisions against any potential invasion.
On April 16, an airplane from China with medical equipment landed in Vilnius. Around a third of all protective medical gear ordered from China has already reached Lithuania. The shipments so far included 7.64 million pairs of disposable gloves and 3.65 million medical face masks. Out of the total 31.55 million pieces of Protective Personal Equipment (PPE) ordered from China, some 12.7 million have already reached Lithuania. Simultaneously this has triggered political debate.
Lithuania, like Estonia, is facing an interesting division of the political elite. Actually, over this issue the entire European Union is divided. One side supports the offer of Chinese humanitarian assistance, but another faction is against and, behind generous Chinese actions, sees nothing other than political calculations, with much of this assistance being “faulty.” The first Chinese shipment of facemasks arrived in Lithuania at the end of March, as a humanitarian aid from Chinese tech giant Huawei. It partnered with other companies to provide 20,000 protective masks and 120,000 pairs of gloves to Lithuania to help combat the spread of the deadly coronavirus. Huawei has come under scrutiny in Europe, including Lithuania as a United States ally, which has expressed concerns about the security of Huawei gear in a future 5G network. Lithuania has also received 810,000 safety glasses, 1.8 million disposable caps, 1.8 million disposable gowns, 1.05 million disposable overalls, 15 million disposable gloves, and 3.6 million disposable overshoes from China.
“Rail Baltica” remains one of the most important projects of the entire region, and reportedly will be completed in 2026. It is an 870-kilometre railway that will connect Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, but has recently encountered delays. Now all sides pledged their support and committed themselves to finishing the project by the agreed date. This project is a 6-billion-euro high speed rail infrastructure project. On April 16, it launched the first tender for the procurement of electrification engineering services.
Poland
Poland decided to send a group of doctors to the US to help its American colleagues in the fight against the coronavirus. The corresponding agreement was reached during a telephone conversation between the presidents of the two countries, Andrzej Duda and Donald Trump. The medical mission of Polish doctors will go to Chicago. In addition to supporting local doctors, they will undergo practice in the treatment of patients with the coronavirus. What is also worth noting is the apparent praise Trump heaped on Duda regarding his “strong action in regards to 5G networks”.
Speaking alongside Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki, countries minister of development Jadwiga Emilewicz stated that Poland will follow in Germany’s footsteps, and prevent possible hostile takeovers by foreign companies. As per Emilewicz’ statement, this would be achieved by designating threatened companies as “strategically important”. Currently the catalog of “strategically important firms” numbers 24 entities, predominantly from the energy and mining sector.
The EU and the Eastern Partnership
The European Parliament will call for the creation of a “common economic space” between the EU and six former Soviet republics of its Eastern Partnership program as a part of a process of “gradual integration” into the bloc, according to a draft report. The parliamentary draft report also denounces Russia’s “illegal” actions in Eastern Partnership countries — Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine — including what it calls destabilization, invasion and annexation. The document is to be debated by the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee in the coming weeks and could potentially be endorsed by the full chamber in May. The draft document also proposes setting up “an extended international peacekeeping force along the Ukraine-Russia border,” in which an EU-led mission “should be offered for deployment to the parties in the conflict, to assist in tasks such as de-mining, assisting with preparations for local elections and securing free access for humanitarian aid organizations.”
Romania
The U.S. Ambassador to Romania, Adrian Zuckerman has announced that Romania will receive USD 800,000 aid as health assistance to help local authorities to cope with the fight against the novel Coronavirus. This help is an addition to a recent U.S-funded operation to transport protective equipment so desperately necessary to save lives. Romania recently assisted the United States in various ways including helping to repatriate American citizens from around the world.
Autor
Ridvan Bari Urcosta
Senior Analyst at Strategy&Future
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