(goodfon.ru)
Baltic States
200 prominent Lithuanian politicians and public figures sent an open letter to President Gitanas Nausėda on Wednesday, asking him to promote Taiwan’s participation in international organisations, including the UN and the WHO, to open Lithuania’s economic representation in Taiwan and also to advocate for the country’s full independence among EU leaders. This shed light on serious controversies inside Lithuania’s political establishment regarding its relations with China. The Lithuanian president replied that he supported cooperation with Taiwan, but membership at the World Health Organization (WHO) is only open to the UN member states.
Taiwan’s public diplomacy has clearly played a role here; over the last couple of weeks, Taipei has sent 100,000 facemasks to Lithuania in an aid deal brokered by the Lithuania-Taiwan Parliamentary Friendship Group. Many public activists advocate the idea of abandoning the “One China policy” being pursued by Vilnius, with Chinese diplomats reportedly pressuring Lithuanian media, think tanks and politicians.
In spite of its size, Lithuania is doing what it can to help its much poorer neighbors. For instance, the government in Vilnius has approved 100,000 euros as humanitarian aid for Armenia, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The cabinet of ministers decided on Wednesday to allocate 40,000 euros to Ukraine and 20,000 to each of the other countries. The money will be used to purchase protective equipment.. Moreover, the leader of the country offered a separate program of aid against COVID-19 to Belarus. Actually, the Baltic States have enormous concerns about their economies and like many other EU states are calling on the European Union to commence a new “Marshall Plan”, known as the European Economic Recovery Plan. It’s worth noting that the Baltic States have decided to support Germany and Netherlands over the issue of “corona bonds.”
Lithuania promised to organize an international boycott campaign against the nuclear plant which is under construction in the Belarusian city of Astravets. This is to be seen as part of the broader energy security strategy of the Baltic States. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are planning to synchronise their power grid with continental Europe by 2025, switching away from the Moscow-controlled BRELL network that also includes Belarus.
Representatives of the US and Germany reassured Lithuania that NATO remains committed to the security of the Baltic states in spite of the raging COVID-19 pandemic. This was a timely reminder, especially since the US battalion deployed to Lithuania last autumn for six months, is scheduled to leave the country this spring, and there have been rumors that COVID-19 may bring some changes in the process of rotation.
Robert Gilchrist, the US ambassador to Lithuania, and Pentagon officials said that US plans for military presence and investment projects would go ahead.
Ukraine
In Ukraine, the latent political crisis among the oligarchs continues, including the President and different political elites. This week the top question was whether President Vladimir Zelensky would appoint the former President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili as a new Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine. However, until now Zelensky has not decided what to do with the political destiny of Saakashvili in Ukraine. Apparently, Zelensky is calculating the risks for his presidency if he appoints Saakashvili, but Ukraine is deeply divided over this candidature and the same can be said about the European elites. In spite of that the sentiment is that if appointed, Saakashvili may well succeed in his efforts; his previous tenure as a head of the public administration in Odessa was marred by conflict with then president Petro Poroshenko, meaning that not all of his political and economic aims were implemented.
Neither COVID-19 nor the economic situation can stop Ukraine from its efforts to contain the Russian threat in Eastern Ukraine. Ukraine continues to conduct military drills and modernize its armed forces. Ukraine’s defense spending rose from 41st to 35th position in 2019 – according to the SIPRI military expenditure database. This is logical because Ukraine definitely understands that the Russian aim is to deprive the country from the access to the Black Sea.
As stated this week, Ukrainian Vice-Admiral Serhii Gayduk remains concerned that Russia is still committed to its “Novorossiya” project in the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Minister of Defense discussed this with the British Ambassador this week. Britain is paying enormous attention to the situation in the Black Sea and maintains strong connections with Ukrainian Naval Forces. This week, the Ukrainian Marines conducted different types of military exercises in the Kherson region. Concurrently, in the Black Sea area, Naval Special Forces counteracted the “enemy’s” sabotage forces and weapons in Odessa.
After the adoption of the law that allows for selling Ukrainian agricultural land to foreign entities (signed by Zelensky on 28th April), the Ukrainian Parliament is now working on a new interesting piece of legislation named “On Inland Water Transport.” The most intriguing element of this bill is that foreign ships can enter the Ukrainian inland/riverine water system. Additionally, there was envisioned a comprehensive liberalization of the entire sector which would permit foreign investments into the industry. Moreover, it opens the way for development of a future river transportation system in Eastern Europe.
Ukraine is preparing special laws which will make it impossible for military SMEs to operate in the international markets without the approval of State Concern “Ukroboronprom.” New authorities are planning to establish a more centralized system inside the Ukrainian system of military procurement and military technologies.
It is important to give the most important military achievements of Ukraine during the recent week:
Belarus
Belarus will receive a loan from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development in 2020-2021 in the amount of 90 million euros for a period of 11 years to finance their emergency response to the epidemiological situation. In total Belarus may receive assistance from external lenders to the tune of approximately $2-2.5 billion to combat the consequences of coronavirus. Belarus is now working with international organizations, the World Bank, the IMF, the China Development Bank, the European Investment Bank, and the governments of individual countries in order to obtain financial support for recovery after the epidemic coronavirus. The entire support package costs approximately $5-6 billion – both direct and indirect. This is 3-4% of the annual GDP of the country. At the same time Belarus continues to receive humanitarian aid from China. This week a new transfer of aid arrived, amounting to around 70 tons.
On April 23, the Presidents of Lithuania and Belarus had a telephone conversation. They discussed the issue of increasing the supply of goods and greater involvement into this process of the infrastructure of Klaipeda port. The presidents also discussed in detail the topic of diversification of energy supplies – oil and gas. In addition, the heads of state discussed the interaction of the two countries in the field of nuclear safety (the nuclear plant in Belarus). Lithuania opposes the nuclear plant which is being built some 50 kilometres from Vilnius as a breach of international safety standards. Minsk denies all allegations.
Lukashenka continues his quest for diversification of energy supplies and Lithuania’s infrastructure system fits perfectly into these plans. However, the situation is complicated by many international factors, but both sides understand the importance of the issue for the future geopolitical stability of the region.
Poland
The Head of the Polish Ministry of Defence announced that the Ministry has finalized negotiations concerning the Javelin ATGMs delivery agreement. The Head of the MoD also added that more purchases are planned to take place in future. The delivery concerns 60 launchers and 180 missiles.
Over the last few days, the media in Poland picked up on the White House statement thanking Poland for – inter alia – its decisive action on 5G security. This rather cryptic statement was made more intriguing by an apparent denial of the Presidential Palace that 5G was a topic of a recent conversation between Donald Trump and the Polish president Andrzej Duda. Over the last couple of days some light has been shed on this issue; apparently, the Polish digitalization ministry has published an updated version of its 5G toolbox, which was first unveiled in January this year.
Apparently this most recent version of the toolbox – now deleted from the Ministry’s webpage – contained provisions that would favor implementation of Open Radio Access Networks, as well as set conditions – some argue purposefully vague – regarding security conditions that must be met by prospective 5G infrastructure providers. It’s worth noting that while the January version of the document recommended that dependence on one hardware manufacturer is to be avoided, the most recent one “demands guarantees” that this is the case.
While it is fairly evident that this new version of the “Toolbox” is a result of a not-so-covert political pressure of DC aimed at stymying Huawei, what is worth noting is that the apparent focus on promoting OPEN-RAN technology is likely to damage the standing of other 5G infrastructure manufacturers, most predominantly Nokia and Ericsson, thus likely attracting the ire of the EU. The new toolbox has been harshly criticized as an “affront to transparency”, and an unjustified intervention that has not been consulted with telcos and other outside parties, thus putting the development of 5G networks in Poland at risk.
Autor
Ridvan Bari Urcosta
Senior Analyst at Strategy&Future
Strategy&Future
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