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Poland
GAZ-SYSTEM signed a contract with Saipem Limited for the performance of works related to laying the gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea. The scope of this contract also covers the landfalls where the offshore part will be connected with the onshore components in Poland and Denmark. The contract value is approximately EUR 280 million. According to the schedule, the first works within Saipem’s scope will be commenced in the 2nd half of this year and, among other things, will consist of preparing landfall work sites in Poland and Denmark, as well as beginning the construction works necessary for microtunnelling. It is also expected that the 2nd half of this year will see the start of activities at sea – the launch of the pipeline pre-lay route surveys. Vessels preparing the seabed for pipeline installation will mobilize in the Baltic in the 1st half of next year. Pipelay as such will start in the summer 2021. The pipeline handover for operation is planned in October 2022.
The ambassador of Poland to Belarus Artur Michalski, in an interview with the Belarus 1 television channel, noted the positive dynamics in the economic relations of the two countries and said that Poland was ready to help Belarus in diversifying energy sources. Artur Michalski said that Belarus and Poland were starting their cooperation in the energy sector. “An active political dialogue between our states helps a lot here,” the ambassador emphasized. “We understand the need of Belarus to diversify energy sources, we have already done this for a long time. We know that Belarus is talking with many countries about possible transit routes – with the Baltic countries and Poland, too. Politically, everything is clear here. We have a very friendly attitude towards this process.” The diplomat noted that Poland would like to help Belarus in diversifying energy sources. Michalski also said that in general, there is a positive trend in the economic relations of the two countries. Now, the annual trade turnover between Poland and Belarus exceeds $3 billion.
Ukraine
The Ukrainian government is currently considering the opportunity to send Ukrainian work force to Austria, Finland, Denmark, Norway and other countries. For example, openly Finland is expected to attract 15 thousand workers from Ukraine this year. Concurrently, on May 4 Polish consular offices in Ukraine resumed issuing visas for agricultural and horticultural work, as well as international transport. Ukrainian and Balkan countries work force is a crucial element for surviving the EU economy. In Ukraine, it triggered a huge debate because it is deeply harming the Central Ukrainian dignity; some politicians even called it nothing else but “slavery.”
More likely, the U.S. State Department will appoint the retired Lieutenant General Keith Dayton as a new United States Ambassador to Ukraine. Dayton currently serves as the Director of the George C. Marshall Center in Garmisch, Germany. He also serves concurrently as Senior U.S. Defense Advisor to Ukraine. Hе also was the U.S. Defense Attache to Russia.
He stated in 2017 that “We stand side by side in our shared beliefs, for example, in protecting our partners in the East by the enhanced forward presence in the Baltic states and in Poland.” Dayton deeply feels the region and it is a serious event when Washington is appointing high-level military to the country which is fighting against Russian aggression.
Ukrainian remote controlled unmanned ground vehicle “Hunter” equipped with a rifle combat module continues to be tested in the combat zone, in Donbass. “Hunter” was created by domestic specialists of the Design Bureau “Robotics.” “Hunter” has a control radius of the platform 1500 m, which can be extended to 3000-4000 meters (in open areas). The combat platform is equipped with a secure communication channel with a frequency range from 5 to 6 GHz, which makes the RSVK fairly invulnerable to the action of hostile Radio-electronic systems.
Ukraine is exporting the P-18MA (P-180U) a ground mobile long-range detection radar station (radar) operating within the meter wave range, which is an improved version of the old analog radar P-18. It should be added that the Aerotechnika-MLT manufactured radar has improved detection characteristics and provides automatic tracking, integrating data received from other radars and radio altimeters. The exchange of radar information takes place via the provided data exchange link in the agreed exchange protocol. Last three times the systems were sold to Turkey.
Ukraine is developing high-tech military strategy of drone “swarm.” The Advanced Defense Research Projects Agency (DARPA) will sign contracts with nine Ukrainian companies that develop technologies for drones. Thus, under the Offensive Swarm-Enabled Tactics (OFFSET) program, the agency hopes to stimulate technological developments aimed at creating unmanned swarms: 250 small drones or ground robots will work together in difficult urban conditions. The program provides work in five main areas: swarm tactics, autonomy, the union of people and machines, in virtual environment and a physical test site. The four companies will address issues such as disruption of enemy swarms, updating dynamic environment maps and maintaining communication between drones indoors. The other five teams will consider how to reduce swarm deployment time, create new navigation sensors, and increase the mobility of robotic wheeled platforms in urban environments. Participants will integrate a technology into the swarm system to demonstrate their solutions. Field tests will be held in December 2020.
Ukrainian Ministry of Defense delegation visited Pakistan this week. According to the media reports, the goal of the visit was to negotiate potential purchase of JF-17 Block III fighters. Ukrainian Air Force is trying to urgently replace the 30-year-old MiG-29 and Su-27, inherited from the former Soviet Union. While the debate regarding potential acquisition is very much still ongoing in Ukraine, JF-17 has some significant appeal, being a product of cooperation between Chinese and Pakistan engineers, that is ultimately based upon Soviet technologies.
Romania
Romania’s Chamber of Deputies has passed tacitly and without debate, a draft bill that offers administrative autonomy to Szeklerland, a region in the center of the country inhabited mainly by Hungarian ethnic minority. The tacit adoption of the bill came after the legal deadline for a vote in the Chamber passed on Tuesday, without the vote taking place. It does not mean that the deputies have actually voted in favor of this bill. Moreover, Romanian Senate rejected the bill.
The tacit adoption of this draft bill has sparked another political scandal in Romania. The Liberal Government and the Social Democrats, who have the majority in Parliament, have blamed each other for this “slippage”, which risks reigniting ethnic tensions in Romania. Romania’s president Klaus Iohannis accused the Social Democratic Party (PSD) of helping the ethnic Hungarian party UDMR to pass this law. He even suggested that PSD and its leader Marcel Ciolacu had a secret deal with Hungarian PM Victor Orban to “hand over Transylvania to the Hungarians.” At the times of future economic depression, the deterioration of political situation inside Romania and between Romania and Hungary can be a serious trigger of regional instability. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has retorted to President Iohannis’ statements on the autonomy of Szeklerland, saying that the Romanian president “had made a rude statement that incites hatred”.
Romania plans to launch a ferry service, which will reduce the route between Ukraine and Romania by 200 km. The Isakcha-Orlovka ferry crossing across the Danube and the state border checkpoint will open immediately after quarantine is lifted. The Orlovka-Isakcha crossing opens the Ukraine-Southern Europe transport corridor. The crossing capacity is about 200 trucks, 500 cars, and its passenger flow is about 1,500 people. In addition, four ferries will service the line, which can be used by passengers traveling without a car. The distance between the Ukrainian and Romanian banks of the Danube in the Orlovka area is about 900 meters. The ferry traverses this distance in just 10-15 minutes. This is the first checkpoint along the Ukrainian-Romanian border on the Danube, and it is of strategic importance for both countries.
Belarus and Lithuania
Alexander Lukashenka’s stubbornness in regards to the COVID-19 pandemic is now causing him a lot of grief. Belarussian strongman insists, that the May 9th victory parade in Minsk takes place as scheduled, irritating both Belarusian public and political opposition. The latter is looking to capitalize on Lukashenko’s slip-ups. The deeper Lukashenka is bogged down into a political deadlock because of his character traits, the more the political opposition hopes to gain in the upcoming elections.. Matter of fact, Lukashenko went as far as to invite world leaders to the parade, to no avail – both Russia and China refused to participate in the event.
Regarding the international humanitarian aid particularly from the West, Lukashenka does not consider it as a bona fide humanitarian aid, and remains weary of the donors. This week he stated that the support provided to Belarus by the international community can be used for destructive anti-Belarussian purposes and is meant to fund dissident civil society activists.
Russia denies any agreements with Minsk regarding reduction of natural gas prices. It is now a tactical task of Minsk to forge a new agreement with Russia regarding new prices for gas and oil because of the recent energy crisis (amending the relevant protocol between the Government of the Republic of Belarus and Gazprom, and in contracts between business entities). In accordance with the signed documents in February, the price is $127 per thousand cubic meters. Evidently, Russia is deliberately preparing economic and political grounds for the future economic pressure on Belarus to further country’s integration with Russia.
The President of Lithuania had a phone conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart. He emphasized the Lithuania’s principled position regarding the safety of the Astravets nuclear plant and Lithuania’s decision not to buy unsafe electricity from third countries. The President turned to Ukraine with a request to reconsider the issue of purchasing electricity from Astrava NPP. Ukraine has avoided any direct commitments, primarily because Belarus is an important provider of Kiev’s electricity. The Lithuanian parliament has called on the government to take even more active steps in trying to block electricity from the Astravets plant from the Lithuanian market.
Baltic States
Lithuania, despite the crisis, will keep defense spending at 2% of gross domestic product (GDP), underscoring Vilnius’ deep commitment to NATO. This was announced on Tuesday by the President of the Baltic Republic, Gitanas Nauseda, during a video conference call with NATO Secretary General Jense Stoltenberg. According to Nauseda, the negative consequences of the pandemic will be felt both in the social and economic life of the country. “This will not affect Lithuania’s principled position to fulfill its international obligations and to devote 2% of GDP to defense.”
Around 200 Lithuanian politicians and public figures sent an open letter to President Gitanas Nausėda earlier in April, asking him to support Taiwan in its dispute with the WHO and advocate for the country’s international recognition. The letter to support Taiwan’s independence is “an open provocation to the principle of one China,” the Chinese ambassador to Lithuania stated this week. At the same time, 42 companies from Latvia have registered for the “China – CEEC Online Expo 2020”, planned to take place in June in the city of Ninbo, China. Participation is free of charge, said the Latvian Investment and Development Agency (LIAA). Latvia has participated in every edition of the China-CEEC expo since 2015. Unlike in the previous years, the 2020 exhibition will take place in a digital format to prevent the spread of Covid-19.
The strategic infrastructural project „Rail Baltic” is facing some political opposition in Estonia, where it became a victim of political confrontation between opposition and ruling party. Estonian Interior Minister Mart Helme voiced his opposition to the project, stating that the Rail Baltica will not be built. The Helme Conservative People’s Party (EKRE) has always opposed construction of the railway, meant to link Baltic states with Scandinavia and Central Europe. If the Helme government were to be successful, abandoning the Rail Baltica would mean cancelling one of the largest infrastructure projects in the post-Soviet history of the Baltic States – one important not only for fostering commercial links, but also indispensable asset from the military mobility standpoint, and making NATO action in the Baltics exceedingly difficult.
Moreover, abandoning the project by Tallinn could mean that the European Union would withdraw further funding for the project. Paralyzing the project would result in claims for damages from the European Union and Estonia’s southern neighbors over early termination of valid employment contracts.
Nevertheless, the Estonian Minister of Economic Affairs and Infrastructure Taavi Aas stated, that there was no indication that the construction of Rail Baltica has been halted. Rather, argues Aas, the project is building momentum, with the planning stage almost completed; this should be followed by full-scale construction work.
Autor
Ridvan Bari Urcosta
Senior Analyst at Strategy&Future
Strategy&Future
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