Intermarium Weekly 13-20.05.2020
(goodfon.ru)
Romania seeks to continue flattening the curve
Restrictions are being gradually eased in Romania after what amounted to a 60-day State of Emergency (a 30-day State of Emergency renewed in mid-April) ended 15th May and was replaced with a State of Alert. Having managed to keep their 7-day death toll at around 25 maximum with the peak coming about two weeks ago, the approach seems to have been successful. It remains to be seen, what effect this will have on the economy. We know that industrial production decreased 6% in Q1.
Viral video threatens to bring down Dodon
A YouTube video has been doing the rounds in which the President of Moldova, Igor Dodon, is seen meeting secretly with (and perhaps being bribed by) Moldovan oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc. Talk of impeachment has begun swirling around Dodon, who faces re-election in November 2020.
Covid-19 impacts Ukraine’s nuclear power sector
As the result of another emergency stop to one of Ukraine’s nuclear power units, total operational capacity of Energoatom (the National Nuclear Energy Generating Company of Ukraine) has fallen to an unprecedented 6,780 MW, less than 49% of the country’s installed capacity. The sector was in a state of slow decline even before the pandemic but with demand for electricity now dropping sharply, it has been hit hard. This situation is compounded by a recent raft of green energy regulations.
Chinese investments in Eastern Ukraine
Oleksandr Yaroslavsky’s DCH Group signed a Memorandum of Cooperation with the Chinese telecoms equipment manufacturer ZTE Corporation who will become the first business resident at Ecopolis HTZ, a “next-gen multi-industry business park” in Kharkiv. The city’s infamously pro-Russian mayor Hennadiy Kernes attended the meeting (which was held online due to the restrictions that are in place because of the pandemic). Like Huawei, ZTE Corporation has been subject to a range of US sanctions and import bans.
Elsewhere in Ukraine…
UNICEF offers a conservative estimate (based on macro forecasts by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine) that a further 6 million people may fall below the poverty line (i.e. the number of people living in poverty would increase by this much) as a result of the economic crisis caused by Covid-19. Such figures may help the Ukrainian government in terms of seeking international financial aid. The EU has earmarked 1.2 bn EUR for the Eastern Partnership countries and it’s thought that Ukraine will take the lion’s share. Georgia, for example, will receive only 150 mln EUR.
Bayraktar TB2 Ukrainian-Turkish drone conducted a training flight on May 19, 2020. The United States has provided military assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine totaling more than $25 million for use in the Donbas. The help includes night vision devices, thermal imagers, walkie-talkies and medical equipment.
Struggling state-owned aircraft builder Antonov are hopeful for cooperation with and future investment from US giant Boeing. This comes amidst – potentially painful – reforms being undertaken at defence conglomerate UkrOboronProm. Keeping ex-Soviet tech out of Chinese hands during a major recession ought to be a key strategic priority for the US. The question is, do they realise this?
The State Space Agency of Ukraine appointed a new director late January. 36-year-old Volodymyr Usov was founder and CEO of ceramic 3D-printing startup Kwambio and has ambitious plans for the Agency, which we will be keeping track of at S&F.
Changing Belarus-EU dynamics?
Belarus continues to develop its various international relationships on several fronts: (1) within the Eurasian Economic Union; (2) with Russia directly, especially concerning a potential re-negotiation of gas prices; (3) with the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia, concerning oil deliveries; (4) with the Chinese, concerning a major trade park project on the eastern outskirts of Minsk; (5) with the European Union, concerning an easing of VISA regulations. Is the EU now moving towards a more pragmatic approach when it comes to dealing with its eastern neighbour?
US-Polish joint exercises to take place next month
Delayed US-European (essentially US-Polish) joint military exercises will take place in the Drawsko Pomorskie training area, Poland, Jun 5th-19th, with a focus on developing an airborne operation and the forcing of a water barrier. Around 4,000 US troops and 2,000 Polish troops are expected to take part. A further 4,000 Polish troops will probably carry out a separate military exercise – Anakonda-20 – at the same time. Russia may try to insist on the right to send an inspection team, enshrined in the Vienna Document of 2011, however given the situation in Eastern Europe since 2014, there is no guarantee that such a request would be approved.
German political opposition to the hosting of US nuclear warheads on German territory is gathering momentum from within the Green and SPD parties, the latter of which is part of the country’s governing coalition. American diplomats have intimated that these weapons may instead be moved to Poland. Poland gave no official reaction to such speculation and it appears the Polish expert community is divided over the issue.
Autor
Ridvan Bari Urcosta
Senior Analyst at Strategy&Future
Strategy&Future
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