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Russian reaction to the idea of nuclear weapons in Poland
Russian Senator Alexei Pushkov suggested that American and Polish politicians recall the history of the 1962 Caribbean crisis. Then the deployment of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba led to one of the most dangerous aggravations of relations between the USA and the USSR during the years of the Cold War. “Most likely, they don’t know about it or forgot about it. Placing such weapons in Poland is the right way to bring things to the same crisis,” said Pushkov. The Russian and Belarusian experts consider this announcement part of a bigger strategy. The US and NATO are building military facilities in Poland (Powidz). A few points on this:
Russia feeling “threatened” by the West
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu addressed a military collegium on 20th May to say that around 2,000 units of new and modernised equipment would be arriving in the Western Military District meaning that its share of equipment would exceed 65%. The Russian Ministry of Defence will seek to increase the level of cooperation with their Belarussian counterparts on the basis that “the Western strategic direction presents the largest threat for the military security of the Russian Federation.”
Escalatory rhetoric is also coming from the American side. For example, US Presidential National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien called the Kaliningrad Region of Russia “a dagger in the heart of Europe.” Kremlin’s apparent refusal to permit fly overs of the US aircraft above the Kaliningrad exclave was one of the reasons why the White House justified the US decision to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty.
Lukashenko: plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko admitted that the first five months of 2020 have been the most difficult in his long political career. He sees Belarus as a unique country in so far as it did not “give up” and maintained a normal rhythm of life despite the virus. Lukashenko has also mused on the topic of war – and peace: “It would be nice,” he said, “if all states have abolished war, once and for all.” But for him this is an illusion and therefore, “unfortunately, it is necessary to prepare for [war] in peacetime. You won’t get anywhere if you don’t prepare. If you don’t prepare then you reap the bitter fruits later.”
According to Lukashenko, the strategic task in the field of defence is “…to cause unacceptable damage to the enemy.” The way to do this is to develop the rocket industry. This week Belarusian president visited the military R&D centre which has recently developed a missile that is able to strike targets from a distance of 300 km (built with Chinese tech). He outlined that Belarus must develop its own rocket industry and he heavily criticised Russia for it’s refusal to permit testing in Russia of the new Belarusian rocket. Russia has previously turned down Belarussian request to test the missile in one of it’s proving grounds, and explained that testing missiles of this kind usually takes place in Kazakhstan.
Thus, Lukashenko wants to develop Belarussian missile industry with the help of the Chinese, and has announced plans to discuss the prospects of a joint missile –building industry with China’s president Xi Jinping. For Belarus, China is becoming an alternative centre of power and practical leverage to play against the Russians and the Americans.
Belarus is thinking about building its own drones and creating a fully-fledged drone industry, incorporating institutions, R&D centres and military academies. It is worth noting, however, that the current industry has deeply Russian roots. Again, future cooperation with China could give Minsk an advantage, given that the leaders in the field of combat drones are the US, Turkey and China. As the experience of military operations in Syria (the use of Turkish UAVs) and Libya (Turkish and Chinese) has shown, such UAVs are an effective means (especially in combination with electronic warfare and air defence) of deterring and destroying enemy forces, as long as they are deployed on a limited basis.
Belarus will try to push ahead with plans to open its first nuclear power plant before Presidential elections take place on 9th August 2020, despite strong and continued opposition from neighbouring Lithuania. The site is located just a few kilometres from the border between the two countries. Transportation of the first batch of nuclear fuel from Siberia has been completed and it is ready to be loaded into the reactor.
Ukrainian Air Force planning fifteen years ahead
The US embassy in Ukraine congratulated President Volodymyr Zelensky on his first year in office and added that the US will continue their support of Ukraine and its people in their ongoing fight for territorial integrity.
Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili visited Ukraine’s state-owned aircraft builder Antonov, which has played an integral role in terms of NATO strategic air delivery. “Ukraine retains the chance to remain a developed country of the first world and not go into the echelon of third world countries as long as there are Antonov, Yuzhmash, Motorsich, Kharkiv Aviation Plant. As soon as we lose these enterprises, the return path will be very long and will be possible only after several generations.” It should be noted that during his presidency in Georgia, all industrial connections with Russia were stopped and the structure of the Georgian economy subsequently shifted to the tourism and agricultural sectors.
The Ukrainian Defence Ministry adopted the program document “Air Force Vision 2035” with a particular focus on the importance of air reconnaissance. Somewhat controversially, the Ukrainian Air Force is to be decreased in size. As a practical expression of the “2035 Vision” this week in the Western and Central military districts of Ukraine, the Air Forces have conducted command and staff training together with command and control centres. The exercises involved tactical and transport aviation, air defence units operating SAM’s, and air and missile warning systems, reconnaissance and unmanned aircraft. Air Force units intercepted small-sized targets flying at low speed at low altitudes. Tactical aircraft delivered simulated missile and bomb strikes on enemy units. Protocols for protecting airspace outside of the combat are were defined and practiced, with a pair of fighters escorting a civilian aircraft towards an airport away from the area of operations.
A report about the future of Ukraine’s grain market was published, which indicates that within the next five years the harvest of grain will have reached a record point – 113 million tons. The figure for 2019 was 98 million tons. Ukraine usually exports about 70% of its grain harvest, and this year will export around 60 million of tons. Taking this new forecast into account we can definitely say that in the near future Ukraine can become an “agrarian superpower.” However, the political instability in the country and climate change are playing against this forecast; for example Southern Ukraine has faced serious problems with water shortages in the recent years.
Following protracted negotiations with the Ukrainian Government, the IMF has agreed on a shape and size of it’s financial assistance package. Ukraine will receive a loan of $5 billion under the stand-by program, designed to last for 18 months. The funds will be used to maintain the balance of payments and support the budget. Ukraine will be expected to resume important structural reforms once the crisis and pandemic will be over. The IMF is not the only international organisation which is preparing financial assistance for Ukraine. Following ratification of the Memorandum between the EU and Ukraine by the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine will be able to receive the first tranche of €600 million, which is unconditional. Ukraine is among the ten partner and neighbouring countries, which will receive a total of up to €3 billion in aid. At the same time, Ukraine will receive the largest part of these funds, with Albania set to receive€180 million, Bosnia and Herzegovina – €250 million, Georgia – €150 million, Jordan – €200 million, Kosovo – €100 million, Moldova – €100 million, Montenegro – €60 million, Northern Macedonia – €160 million, Tunisia – €600 million. Macro-financial assistance will be provided for 12 months in the form of loans on very favourable terms to help these countries meet their most urgent financing needs.
Antwerp-based Sibelco, one of the leading minerals and materials companies in Europe, bought two Ukrainian clay producers this week – Euromineral LLC and the Kurdyumovsky Plant PrJSC.
Military cooperation between the Baltic States
According to the NATO website, troops from NATO countries’ enhanced Forward Presence Battlegroup in Lithuania are training together with British and Spanish pilots from the Alliance’s Baltic Air Policing mission. The training, which began on Monday (11 May 2020) and wraps up this week, provides an opportunity to improve close air support and air crew procedures and skills. It involves the battlegroup’s German and Norwegian Joint Terminal Attack Controllers – specialised soldiers who guide fighter aircraft to targets on the ground – conducting air-to-ground support missions with British Eurofighter Typhoons and Spanish F-18s. The British and Spanish air force contingents operate from Šiauliai Air Base and help guard the skies over the Baltic region as part of NATO’s Air Policing mission. NATO’s battlegroup in Lithuania is composed of around 1,200 personnel from Germany, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Iceland, Luxembourg, Netherlands and Norway. The battlegroup is part of the biggest reinforcement of the Alliance’s collective defense in a generation.
Cooperation in the military sphere between Baltic States was extended this week towards Sweden. Latvia’s National Armed Forces, together with the Estonian Armed Forces, has placed an order with Swedish company Saab Dynamics AB for the supply of new ‘Carl-Gustaf M4’ anti-tank weapons. It is planned that the weapons ordered for approximately 1.3 million euros will be delivered to the National Armed Forces by 2022. The number of units was not specified. New grenade launchers will be used in parallel with the M2 modification weapons previously received from Sweden and Norway. The order is based on a joint agreement between the Swedish Defence Equipment Administration, the Estonian Defence Investment Centre and Saab Dynamics AB, which was signed in 2018.
Bulgarian minority voices concerns in Odessa
Ukraine is planning to modify the administrative structure of the Odessa region. The Bulgarian Parliament reacted to these plans this week and adopted a declaration that criticised a planned reform to divide the Bolgrad region in Ukraine’s southern Odessa district into five sections. The area is home to a large ethnic Bulgarian community. The Ukrainian foreign ministry rejected Bulgarian claims that the decision would undermine the rights of the country’s ethnic Bulgarian minority. “The protection of the rights and freedoms of representatives of all national minorities is among the fundamental priorities of Ukraine,” the ministry said. Ukraine Foreign Minister held a telephone conversation on the issue with Bulgarian Deputy Prime Minister. Bulgaria’s parliament unanimously adopted a declaration voicing concern about the Bulgarian community in Ukraine. The Odessa region is home to a large community of Bulgars (more than 200,000 people) that moved from Ottoman Empire to Russia in XIX century. After the collapse of the USSR they found themselves living in the Ukrainian Odessa Region. For Kiev, this community always presented a problem because of their commitment to more amicable relations with Russia. It is noteworthy to state that Bulgarian nationalists are claiming that there are more than 400,000 Bulgarians living in the Odessa region, and Ukraine purposefully is decreasing their numbers. Now, Ukraine is facing problems with the representatives of ethnic minorities from the entire neighborhood: Russia, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia (a tiny minority) and Turkey (Crimean Tatars). Now it seems Bulgaria will be added to this group of countries that are concerned with the rise of Ukrainian nationalism.
The geopolitical rhythm of China in Eastern Europe
China is trying to establish stable influence in the region by implementing infrastructure projects. One of the most symbolically important projects for the European Union closer logistical integration and NATO security in the Eastern Flank is the Rail Baltica project. For example China works with Estonia and Sweden on creating a Northern Silk Road. Recently, the Estonian Minister of Economic Affairs and Infrastructure, Taavi Aas (Centre Party), discussed increasing cargo activity on the so-called Northern Silk Road with political delegations from China, Russia, Kazakhstan and Sweden. According to the minister, Sweden and Norway currently lack a railway corridor into China, which provides an opportunity to Estonia. Estonian Reform Party MEP and former foreign minister Urmas Paet commented that Tallin’s position is that Europe must conduct a common policy regarding China. He also pointed to control over infrastructure: “A decisive factor is that infrastructure would not be given up to investors connected to China or Russia.” The Estonian political establishment is divided over the future of relations with Russia and China. The Centrists are more prepared for pragmatic relations than the far-right.
Autor
Ridvan Bari Urcosta
Senior Analyst at Strategy&Future
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