“Belar YS” unmanned aerial vehicle at the Independence Day Parade in Minsk, Belarus (wikipedia.org)
Belarus
This week the country was more or less calm and stable. However, everything suggests that the upcoming weeks will show the main picture and the strategy of the authorities towards the opposition leaders, especially when the names of the presidential candidates are officially announced.
Independence Day and Lukashenka’s vision
Belarus celebrated its Independence Day, July 3, with both the regime and the political opposition attempting to gain additional points before the elections by raising the issue of “sovereignty.” As Alexander Lukashenka stressed during the official celebrations, “we constantly have to defend the right to an independent path of development” of contemporary Belarus as a “self-sufficient independent state.” As well as referencing the historical concept that Belarusians are a nation with a one thousand year history, he pointed out that for him and his followers the case of Ukraine is a pattern of what the country and its people should not do, warning his audience of the danger of political perturbations which are able to undermine the political and economic stability of the country, i.e. support me you support social and economic stability, otherwise “if we follow the imposed scenarios of foreign puppeteers, then we will cease to be Belarusians.” Humanity is at a historic turning point and these changes are coming, hence the country must be coherent. The geopolitical situation he described was one in which Belarus has been “torn apart from the West and East.”
Russian „SBERBANK”
The President of Belarus met with the President and Chairman of the Management Board of Sberbank of Russia, Herman Gref, to open a fountain in Minsk. This event seems ordinary and without specific repercussions, but it is not as simple as it looks. “Sberbank of Russia” PJSC is the largest bank and one of the leading global financial institutions, and today it is also the largest technology company in the Russian Federation. Sberbank accounts for about a third of the assets of the entire Russian banking sector; it is a key creditor for the Russian economy and occupies the largest share in the deposit market.
Belarus and the U.S
Belarus will soon complete domestic procedures to agree on a candidate for the post of ambassador to the United States of America. This was announced by Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei. Saying when this could happen, the Foreign Minister suggested that the procedure for sending the ambassador would be completed “in the coming month – one and a half, maximum two.” Furthermore, he added that “the supply of American oil is not a one-time step, but a long-term program. This is necessary for Belarus in order to avoid shocks in case of unforeseen circumstances associated with possible financial and economic crises.” Thus, the supply of American oil to Belarus is not a one-time action, but a long-term program necessary to increase the stability of the country’s economy in the event of possible financial and economic crises. According to the Foreign Minister, Minsk similarly intends to work on the supply of hydrocarbons from other sources and other directions, including from the Middle East and several other states. He recalled the instruction of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenka to ensure the purchase of about 30% of oil from alternative sources. Moreover, Lukashenka – on behalf of the Belarusian people and himself personally – congratulated President Donald Trump and the citizens of the US on their Independence Day. He stated that “Building strong, constructive relations with the United States based on shared values and priorities is one of the main goals of Belarusian foreign policy.”
The Union State
During an online briefing dedicated to Belarusian Independence Day, the country’s ambassador to Russia, Vladimir Semashko, released some fascinating details about the proposals of the Russian side regarding the further development of integration, arguing that it was possible to deepen integration “within reasonable limits, without prejudice to sovereignty.”
“I recall on February 13, 2019, when the first proposal was put in Sochi for me (I will not name the authors from the Russian side). And when we looked and handed it to the President, the President invited me, and I say: well, that’s a complete “white flag”, the ambassador said – “I will not continue further epithets: there was everything to be given upstairs and, in my opinion, a couple of moments remained, such as our police, your police, and so on. But it cannot be.”
Semashko cited the European Union as an example. “When you analyze the functions of national and supranational, I counted only 18% that were given to the supranational level, the remaining functions remained national,” he noted. “And in the document that was offered to us on February 13, 2019, I counted 95% of the functions of supranational.” Speaking about the introduction of a common currency in the Union State, the ambassador emphasized that, regardless of the size of the economies, there should be equality in a single emission center. “If any decision is made on emission, devaluation, then it must be taken by consensus,” he is convinced. “Then the interests of neither side are violated.”
With regard to tax and customs legislation, a priori, due to differences in the economy, they cannot be the same, copied under the carbon copy, they can only be unified, the diplomat emphasized. Thus, Russia wants full incorporation of the country, but from the other side, Belarus has not refused to be part of this Union State if the conditions will be changed in more equal terms.
Belarus and the EU
An agreement on visa facilitation and a readmission agreement between Belarus and the European Union come into force, July 1. The visa facilitation agreement makes it easier for Belarusian citizens to obtain short-term visas to enter the European Union, since the visa fee is reduced to 35 euros and canceled for certain categories of travelers. Belarus and the European Union signed agreements on simplifying the issuance of visas and on the readmission of persons staying without permission on January 8 in Brussels.
Ukraine
Oil to Belarus
On June 30, Ukrtransnafta began unloading an oil tanker at the Pivdennyi port for the needs of Belarus. This is the fifth tanker adopted since the beginning of the year under an agreement with BNK (UK) Limited (Great Britain), a British subsidiary of the Belarusian Oil Company. The ship delivered 85 thousand tons of Azeri Light oil. After unloading, the oil is transported through the Odessa-Brody pipeline and one of the two branches of the Druzhba trunk pipeline to the Mozyr Oil Refinery in Belarus.
Connectivity between Poland, Czech Republic and Ukraine
The Czech Railways (České dráhy), in the context of expanding the route network of its trains in Poland, plans to launch a train to Chełm from December, 25 km from the Ukrainian-Polish border. A direct train will go from Bohumin, on the Czech-Polish border near Ostrava, designed to carry 320 passengers. A corresponding request has already been sent by České dráhy to the Office for Access to Railway Infrastructure of Poland. It is assumed that the locomotive traction will be provided almost throughout the route by PKP Interсity, while České dráhy will be responsible for transportation only over a few kilometers of Czech territory. Recall that from June 2017, the Kovel-Chełm train ran between Ukraine and Poland. Subsequently, his route was extended from Kovel (on the Ukrainian side) to Zdolbuniv, although the service was discontinued June 9 last year. In May 2020, the Volyn Regional State Administration discussed the issue of resuming the Kovel-Chełm service. We also note that at the end of 2020, the largest Czech private railway carrier RegioJet intends to launch trains to Przemysl, where they plan to arrange connections with Ukrzaliznytsya trains.
Connectivity: Ukraine between China and Germany
In early June, Antonov Airlines, in cooperation with KN Airlift GmbH, delivered a unique delivery of two Max Bögl wagons on a magnetic cushion from their place of production in Munich, Germany, to the final consumer in China. Given the size of the cars – 12.6 x 2.8 x 3.7 m per section – and the fact that the total load of the two sections is about 36 tons, such transportation was possible only by AN-124-100 aircraft. On the way to China, the plane landed in Almaty (Kazakhstan), for refueling and crew rest.
The River System of Eastern Europe
Quarantine restrictions prevented Ukraine and Belarus from carrying out joint depth measurements along the Dnieper River to implement a cross-border logistics project, so Belarus expects the Ukrainian side to implement them independently in the near future, said the Belarusian Ambassador to Ukraine, Igor Sokol. In addition, he noted that there are two possibilities for cooperation: a tripartite project together with Poland on the E40 waterway and a bilateral project between Ukraine and Belarus. Belarus is implementing an investment project for the construction of a river port in Nizhny Zhary. It is assumed that river vessels of the “river-sea” class will carry goods in both directions along the Dnieper and Pripyat rivers with transshipment already in Ukrainian ports. The diplomat also emphasized that Belarus sees the readiness of the Ukrainian authorities to implement this project.
Recall that the Kyiv river port plans to transship cargo from Belarus. Now the final stage of negotiations on transshipment with temporary storage of goods from Belarus, namely chemical, agricultural products, as well as reinforced concrete building structures, is underway.
Turkish Drones in the Ukrainian Army
Military drills were conducted in the Rivno Region of Ukraine with the participation of Ukrainian air forces and Turkish “Bayraktar” drones. According to the press service of the General Staff, Colonel-General Ruslan Khomchak noted: “For 6 years we learned how to defend well. A year ago I set the task to prepare the troops for offensive operations, because the Armed Forces of Ukraine should be ready to carry out any tasks under any conditions.”
During the training complex, tactical tasks were solved during the offensive, the creation and use of new elements of the combat order, integrated fire destruction and the use of forces and means of operational support, in particular in overcoming minefields of varying complexity. According to FlightRadar24 airspace monitoring service, the aircraft flew for about half an hour with the transponder turned on over the territory of 233 combined-arms training ground.
Ukraine is planning to build an indigenous striking-drone
The R&D centre “Luch” initiated the development of a new prototype Ukrainian striking-drone. The creation of its own unmanned complex took place in stages. During the development of the Neptune complex, the design bureau gained groundwork – an inertial system, a homing head, radio altimeters, an engine power system. In fact, Neptune is a high-speed low-altitude drone. An optical sighting station was made for a helicopter anti-tank complex. That is, all the components of the UAV are worked out – there are missiles, there is a laser-guided optical sighting station. There is also a control point – a ready-made control system. Most likely, it is planned to use a turboprop or piston engine in the project – it depends on the fuel economy. The UAV will have a platform for hanging missiles and a data transmission system. Planned payload – 4 missiles, 2 on each side, 50 kg., total payload – 200-250 kilograms. The device is already designed in KB, according to international classification, it is close to the American Predator and Israeli Hermes. It has a planned flight duration of about 24 hours at a speed of 150-200 km/h. The R&D is expected to show the layout of the Sokol-200 UAV at the Zbroy and Bezpeka exhibition in the fall of 2020. The real adoption period in the presence of an order from the Ministry of Defense is 1.5 years. Flights will begin in 9 months. Another 8-9 months are needed for testing.
Considering that the cost of manufacturing an aircraft glider accounts for about 10-15% of the work on the creation of UAVs, the design bureau actually already has about 85 percent of the finished complex.
China and Eastern Europe
New railway freight route from China to Europe organized
At the first stage, it is planned to send a container train from Hsinchu to Mannheim (Germany) with a frequency of 2 times a week. A new railway route has been established between China and Europe. A train with containers leaves from the Chinese city of Sinzhu (Xi’an province), after 11 days arrives at the Dzerzhinskaya-Novaya intermodal terminal in Kaliningrad, where the containers are loaded onto platforms with a width of 1435 mm standard and sent to the Polish city of Gdańsk and further to Germany, the city of Mannheim. It is noted that during the first test shipment, containers, with a total volume of 86 TEU, transported clothes, shoes, consumer goods, electronic equipment and auto parts. At the first stage, it is planned to send a container train from Hsinchu to Mannheim with a frequency of 2 times a week. Depending on the results of the test transportation on the new land route, the frequency may be increased. Recall that in May, China sent a record number of freight trains to Europe. The main directions for transportation were Belarus, the Russian Federation, Belgium, Hungary, Spain, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, France, Germany and the Czech Republic.
China (Wuhan) and Ukraine
July 6, the second direct container train from China arrived at the Kyiv-Liski station. As reported at the train meeting ceremony, the train delivered 43 forty-foot containers from the PRC. Magnesium sulfate, all kinds of equipment, aluminum frames, disposable syringes, and light industry products were transported in containers. The length of the train route was 9.5 thousand km. Recall that the train left Wuhan on June 16. Accordingly, it traveled all the way in 20 days. The estimated time to overcome this distance is about 15 days. This is an indicator that will ensure the competitiveness of the land route for transporting Chinese goods in Ukraine in comparison with other logistics solutions. It’s planned that trains from China will run weekly with a subsequent increase in frequency.
Russia is preparing for war with Ukraine
Russia has deployed three military groups on the border with Ukraine, which are able to carry out aggression against Ukraine in the shortest possible time. This was stated by the head of the Main Directorate for International Cooperation and Verification of the Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Leonid Golopatiuk. The Ukrainian general pointed out that Russia continues to increase the number of troops (forces) along the state border of Ukraine. In the ground component in the Western Strategic Direction, the 20th All-Army was created as part of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division and the 144th Motorized Rifle Division. At the same time, the 448th Missile Brigade of the 20th Army is armed with Iskander operational and tactical missile systems (OTRK). In the South-Western strategic direction, the 8th All-Military (Shock) Army was created as a part of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, the 20th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and operatively subordinated 1st (Donetsk) and 2nd (Luhansk) Army Corps.
The Baltic States
American Drones in Estonia
Two United States General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper drones are being temporarily housed at Ämari Air Base. This is the first time the drones, which are unmanned and ground-operated, have flown from Estonia, though they have been used in the Baltic States’ airspace before. Since joining NATO in 2004, the alliance’s air policing duties in the region work on a rotational basis. While a ground-based operator for the drone will be based in Estonia, the control center remains in Miroslawiec in northeastern Poland. They are conducting reconnaissance and surveillance flights for the U.S. European Command. This applies to airspace, sea and land. They previously flew over all three Baltic countries a couple of times a week but can now begin flying on a daily basis. However, this is a temporary measure.
New NATO Infrastructure in Estonia
A new Reception, Staging and Onward Movement (RSOM) area was opened at Tapa base, along with a road suitable for heavy machinery. The new infrastructure creates a base for NATO units to participate in short-term exercises or relocations and enhances both Estonia’s independence and the alliance’s defense capabilities, by creating the conditions necessary for rapid, timely, and effective deployment, the defense ministry says. Minister of Defense Jüri Luik (Isamaa) said that the new infrastructure plays a key role in NATO’s collective defense on Estonian soil. “The better the conditions we create for allied forces, and additional forces arriving during exercises or in crisis situations, the more effective the preparation of NATO collective defense within Estonia’s territory will become,” Luik noted. He added that it was especially gratifying to acknowledge that the RSOM area, meeting NATO requirements, has been completed, the first of its kind in Estonia. Moreover, he stated that the infrastructure for the reception and movement of Allied forces – the road and rail network – has reached an excellent level. However, the completion of infrastructure does not mean that we have reached the end of the journey. It must find active use in Allied training exercises, which will strengthen NATO’s deterrence and security.
Latvia plans to nationalize its three main ports
Latvia’s Transport Ministry proposes founding a special state company to manage Riga Freeport and Ventspils Freeport, as well as Liepaja Special Economic Zone (SEZ), whilst also allowing municipal administrations to acquire shares therein, as provided by amendments to the Law on Ports and Law on the Liepāja Special Economic Zone presented to the State Secretaries Meeting on Thursday, 2 July. Nevertheless, it is nothing more than simply a proposal because it would complicate the relations with the EU and with current investors of these ports.
Latvia bans Russia Today
Following the sanctions imposed by the EU Council, Latvia’s National Electronic Mass Media Council (NEPLP) has decided to ban seven RT (previously known as Russia Today) Group programmes that, according to Latvia’s security institutions, are some of the most influential Russian propaganda channels in the West, the council reports. “RT, RT HD, RT Arabic, RT Spanish, RT Documentary HD, RT Documentary, RT TV have been banned because they are under the actual control of Dmitry Kiselev, who is a person under sanctions imposed by the EU Council for undermining the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine,” NEPLP representatives explained. The council has also concluded that RT, founded in 2005 in Russia, is an international electronic mass media that broadcasts content that is coordinated with the positions of the Kremlin in English, Spanish, Arabic and other languages. Russia will inevitably use this fact to accuse the country of limiting free media.
Lithuanian military cooperation with NATO members (Germany and France)
Lithuania and Germany have signed an agreement, regulating the temporary presence of troops on each other’s territory. Up until now, Lithuania had such a deal only with the United States, hence this is a very important event and can play an additional role in the rise of geopolitical commitments between the U.S. and Germany. The agreement covers environmental protection, telecommunication procedures – including limitations on radio frequencies used for advertising or jamming – and defines terms for humanitarian assistance and rescue operations. It’s part of important legislation laying the ground for hosting troops from partner nations. The German ambassador to Lithuania, Matthias Sonn, stressed that “Today’s signatures represent what has perhaps become one of the most central elements in the Lithuanian-German partnership. We jointly defend our alliances’s collective security together, right here in Lithuania, with German ‘boots on the ground’.” Germany has been the lead nation of the international NATO battalion deployed in Lithuania since 2017, which was established in response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. French troops are also joining NATO’s multinational Enhanced Forward Presence battalion in Lithuania. In total, France will deploy 300 troops in Lithuania for a six-month rotation. This marks the second deployment of French soldiers in the country since 2018.
Additionally this week, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the country stated that a major fire in Lithuania’s southern town of Alytus and the coronavirus pandemic have highlighted the importance of smooth cross-border cooperation at the municipal level, the minister said in a press release after a visit to Sejny and Punsk. The two towns in northeastern Poland have large Lithuanian communities. The minister has stated that “Cross-border agreements should be concluded in the near future to regulate cooperation between special services in crisis situations, border crossings and the transport of equipment across the border. We have to increase the population’s resilience to various threats, carry out joint training, and provide the population with the necessary protective equipment.” Sejny County in Poland and Lazdijai District in Lithuania lie in the so-called Suwalki Gap, a corridor of crucial importance for NATO. The Suwalki gap is a land strip of around 100 kilometers on the Lithuanian-Polish border that is wedged between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad in the west and Belarus in the east. In case of a military conflict, the seizure of the strip would cut NATO allies off from the Baltic countries via a land route. Linkevičius welcomed active cooperation between Lithuanian and Polish education experts in dealing with educational issues important to ethnic minorities in the two neighbouring countries. Poland is home to around 5,000 Lithuanians. Most of them live in the Sejny and Punsk region.
Autor
Ridvan Bari Urcosta
Senior Analyst at Strategy&Future
Strategy&Future
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