Strategy&Future

Sergei Korolev (1906-1966) is a legendary figure of the 21st century and is considered one of the “fathers” of space exploration. He was a Soviet scientist and designer of rocket and space systems. Elon Musk, the world’s most prominent space populariser and inventor, has frequently stated that Soviet/Russian space heritage has had a particular impact on his work.

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Dr. Bleddyn E. Bowen (Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Leicester, specialising in space policy and military uses of outer space, the internationally recognised author of War in Space, consulting on space policy for institutions including the UK Parliament, the European Space Agency, and the Pentagon) on his newest book “Original Sin. Power, Technology and War in Outer Space” and on space.

Russia has been forced to cooperate closely with UK and US space companies, more than ever, in achieving their common goal, which is to continue their global dominance in the Earth’s orbit. Maybe, this will spur British and American investors to create one paramount gigantic company that will unite the investors in Washington and London.

Space is the mother of war in the 21st century. Without space technologies, war would immediately be brought back to the first half of the 20th century. Armies would be myopic compared with contemporary armies. Modern logistics, communications and cybersecurity fully depend on the space domain.

The Russo-Ukrainian War is historical in many senses but in future, it will likely be known as the war that triggered the space race in the 21st century, just as the war in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 spurred and revealed to the world the drone warfare revolution. More precisely, the Russo-Ukrainian War has revealed to the world new principles of space warfare and has triggered more than even a global space race. A century ago, the great powers struggled for control of choke points and domination in the sea, air and land domains because all-domain superiority was the recipe for success. Today, the war in Ukraine shows that without space superiority, there is no way to think about global domination. It is the genuine beginning of the Astropolitics era in human history.

Autonomous systems are a dangerous element of future warfare. Especially taking into account the prospect of so-called Lethal Autonomous Weapons (LAWs), controlled by machine learning and AI. And as Michael Horowitz writes, it would be a mistake to focus solely on the drone strike trees and miss the vast military robotics forest.[1] He raises quite an important question for understanding the upcoming military future. [1] Michael C. Horowitz, “The Ethics & Morality of Robotic Warfare: Assessing the Debate over Autonomous Weapons”, Daedalus 2016; 145 (4) // https://www.amacad.org/publication/ethics-morality-robotic-warfare-assessing-debate-over-autonomous-weapons

What’s brewing in the United States is not exclusively only one concept of future warfare based around JADC2, but something more sophisticated and sometimes even more controversial for traditional politicians and militaries that are used to seeing war as something specifically human. This supplementary concept to JADC2 is called Mosaic Warfare, and it is the offspring of DARPA. Accurately speaking, Mosaic Warfare is a branch of JADC2 because within DoD are following programs that are linked to JADC2:

“It may take longer than the visionaries think, but the pilot in the cockpit is already an endangered species.” The Economist, 2011[1] [1] Unmanned Aerial Drones: Flight of the Drones: Why the Future of Air Power Belongs to Unmanned Systems,// Economist, Oct. 8, 2011, available at http://www.economist.com/ node/21531433.

For the first time mankind has reached the frontiers of space, not for glory, but simply to win the war. Now he is also reaching out to space to earn money.

In the near future nobody is going to establish international rules for the different types of UAVs. The proliferation of drone technologies and their decreasing prices on the global market are going to continue.

Israel has responded to the activities of the militants in Lebanon and Palestine by developing a genuinely sophisticated system of UCAVs which encompass strategic, medium-size and tactical drones. In the Gaza sector, Israel is searching for a way to create the right drone for conducting war or tactical special operations in an urban area with minimisation of civilian casualties. The best example so far is the Ninox family of drones, which is produced by the Israeli-American company “Spear”.

“For example, the first thing many people often ask is: ‘What weapon should I use in my operation?’ But the answer to this question – and it’s an important question – is not as difficult as it may seem. The Mujahid Brother Nidal Hasan used firearms in his assault on Fort Hood, but the fact is, today’s Mujahid is no longer limited to bullets and bombs when it comes to his choice of a weapon. As the blessed operations of September 11th showed, a little imagination and planning and a minimal budget can turn almost anything into a deadly, effective and convenient weapon which can take the enemy by surprise and deprive him of sleep for years on end.” Adam Yahiye Gadahn, American spokesperson of al-Qaeda, 2010