Strategy&Future

This report presents a strategic simulation of a future crisis centered on the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad/Królewiec and explores whether an informal regional coalition — the “Baltic Axis” of Poland, Sweden, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, working closely with Ukraine and in strategic partnership with Turkey — could functionally isolate the oblast through a political-military “quarantine"...

For a long time, the Turkic World formed a continuous historical and cultural space from China to Europe without the capacity to be a real geopolitical player in Eurasia, but under the leadership of Turkey, the Turkic World is today shaping a new geopolitical reality in Eurasia.

The Southern Caucasus is one of the most dangerous hotspots on the Eurasian continent. For centuries, the region has attracted regional and global players. Its small nations exist constantly under the pressure of three crucial Eurasian powers: Russia, Turkey and Iran. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the presence of the European Union and the United States was visible in the region.

Ret. Rear Admiral Assoc. Prof. Cihat Yayci (Turkish author, former rear admiral, chief of staff of Turkish Naval Forces and the Father of Turkish concept Blue Homeland) talks with Strategy&Future about Turkish Geopolitics, Montreux Convention, the Black Sea and his Blue Homeland Doctrine.

“For example, the first thing many people often ask is: ‘What weapon should I use in my operation?’ But the answer to this question – and it’s an important question – is not as difficult as it may seem. The Mujahid Brother Nidal Hasan used firearms in his assault on Fort Hood, but the fact is, today’s Mujahid is no longer limited to bullets and bombs when it comes to his choice of a weapon. As the blessed operations of September 11th showed, a little imagination and planning and a minimal budget can turn almost anything into a deadly, effective and convenient weapon which can take the enemy by surprise and deprive him of sleep for years on end.” Adam Yahiye Gadahn, American spokesperson of al-Qaeda, 2010

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Arda Mevlütoğlu on the Poland’s acquisition of Turkish drones, and on the transformation of Poland’s and Turkey’s grand strategies.

Poland has joined the list of countries that are going to operate the Turkish Bayraktar UAVs. In the near future, Turkish drones are going to fly in the skies of Poland and the Baltic countries along with the other countries that have already bought the Bayraktar TB2: Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Qatar and Tunisia (Anka-S). However, the Drone Deal between Poland and Turkey was regarded in Turkey as historic because it was the first ever the NATO-member and EU-member state to decide to buy Turkish drones. This is consequently viewed as a recognition of the high-level of technological advancement Turkey has made.

Turkey’s drive for military technological independence has shown tremendous results. Turkish arms exports increased by 170% during the period 2014-18, compared with the period 2009-13. By 2018, Turkey was the 14th largest arms exporter in the world, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Turkmenistan the main destinations.

“This is true for countries like us, which struggle for survival on different fronts at the same time. We are a country that has suffered a lot of foreign dependency in terms of weapons, ammunition and military equipment in our recent history. We remember the embargoes we faced due to our Cyprus Peace Operation just like yesterday. In this period, we could not even take back the F-35 aircraft we sent for periodic maintenance, let alone receive the aircraft we paid for in advance. In fact, we had to pay a storage fee for aircraft that were not delivered to us for years.” Recep Tayyip Erdogan January 2021

Jacek Bartosiak and Ridvan Bari Urcosta talk to Arda Mevlütoğlu on the Turkey’s strategy in its vicinity and on the region.

Egypt in the Russian agenda plays the most important role for the Middle East and Africa, and the cooperation seems to be increasing in 2021. During the Cold War, Egypt was the most precious diamond in the Middle East for Moscow. It was lost after the death of Nasser and the Yom Kippur War in 1973 and finally in 1978 when the Camp David Accords were signed. Since then, Moscow has had to be satisfied in the company of the marginal regimes in Syria and Libya. Only in recent decades has the situation significantly changed due to the geopolitical events in 2011, the Arab Spring, and its titanic implications to the region.

The main geopolitical imperative of Ukraine is to find a way to maintain its social and political resilience together with the territorial integrity of the country. Ukraine faces internal and external challenges and all these challenges are deeply intertwined among one another. The main external challenge is the possibility of upcoming Russian aggression, both military kinetic and non-kinetic. As a solution, the Ukrainian leadership sees that the only exit from this geopolitical equation is NATO membership.