Strategy&Future

When Putin stated in July that Moscow had barely started its campaign in Ukraine, daring the west to try to defeat it on the battlefield, it was considered a sign of Russia’s readiness to continue its military campaign in Ukraine and its grand strategy concentrated on the bigger geopolitical game than Eastern Europe.

How would the situation in Europe and in the world have developed if Kyiv had been captured by the Russians in the first days of the war? I am of the opinion that despite all the risks associated with posing such counterfactual questions, it is worth asking them. Firstly, because I have the impression that in Poland we are not fully aware of how close we were to a catastrophe in the first days of the war in Ukraine. Secondly, because the war in Ukraine continues, its end result is by no means known and the dangers that Poland would face in the event of a quick victory for Russia in February are still hanging over us.

To understand the current course of the war in Ukraine, we must go to the Marxist theory of war, which serves as the foundation for Russian military doctrine. The Marxist school of the war teaches that war is a continuation of politics, a premise taken from Clausewitz.

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Julian Lindley-French on the war in Ukraine, future of the West and Europe, evolution of the battlefield.

Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan begins a new era of confrontation between the US and China, and with it, marks the beginning of an already open conflict over Eurasia, this unique place where world history takes place and world wars are fought. It begins an era of war slightly different than the previous world wars, because it is scalable. Each of the subsequent system wars was obviously different from the previous one, so there is no surprise here. This time, in a scalable clash, each side will try to force its interests through various domains of contemporary dependencies in a densely globalised world that will be violently split open before our eyes.

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Velina Tchakarova on Taiwan, Ukraine, new Cold War and future of Europe.

The war in Ukraine is escalating from one stage of the escalation ladder into another, but much higher than the previous, and no end to the war is feasible on the horizon. Ukraine is a negligible front in the grand game of grand players, but the aftermaths of the Russo-Ukrainian War will have paramount importance to world history.

We have long proposed at Strategy&Future to increase Poland’s activity “in the eastern direction”, in particular in Ukraine. We’ve written about the importance of a policy aimed at keeping Russia outside the European system, which Poland would not be able to achieve on its own without Ukraine’s participation. We’ve emphasised the importance of supply chains and control over the flows of goods and commodities.

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group, on the war in Ukraine and tensions across the entire Eurasia.

Usually, when Russian military strategists or statesmen speak about military theories or doctrine, they concern with the global or regional character rather than explaining the theory of the war at the tactical level. In the recent past, this sometimes created the impression that they were preparing for a short, small war or a big nuclear war and almost nothing about the macro-level traditional European war we are witnessing in Ukraine.

According to Forbes Ukraine, TDEK Energo, owned by the largest Ukrainian oligarch, Rinat Akhmetov, is currently worth around $580 million due to the war, while before 24th February it was valued at almost $2 billion.[1] The company lost one of its heat and power plants in Luhansk, but this is not the main reason for the “discount”.

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Hugh White about global implications of war and how it is viewed in Australia.