(flickr.com)
Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Kremlin has initiated unprecedented infrastructural projects that have already had tremendous geopolitical consequences for Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region, and definitely for Russia itself. Russia almost succeeded in completing all three enormous projects: the “Tavrida” highway; the Kerch Bridge and the Thermal power stations. Thus, Russia despite the negative prognoses has managed to develop energy independence for Crimea, a sophisticated system of communications and logistics (gas, electricity, railways, airports) and the restoration of the status of Crimea as a military bastion of Russia in the Black Sea (A2/AD). Total Russian investments to Crimea from 2014 to 2022 are approximately $15 billion. However, the biggest problem that Russia inherited with the annexation is the shortage of water that can have more than serious consequences to Russia in her plans to build “a paradise” in Crimea. In all likelihood, this will remain a main strategic goal for the next five years.
In 2013, the total amount of water withdrawn from natural sources amounted to 1553.78 million cubic meters, including: water of the North Crimean Canal – 86.65% of the total water intake); local stock – 8.7%; groundwater 4.41%; seawater 0.16% (December 2013). The most affected part of Crimea after the cut of water from the Dnieper was Eastern Crimea, because it supplied water to such major cities as Feodosia, Kerch, Sudak, the Leninsky district, as well as partially Simferopol and Sevastopol. The total length of the canal is 465 km, including 375 km in Crimea and the biggest weakness of the canal for Crimea was ecological, because after having passed through the industrial centers of Ukraine, water quality became very low. As a supplementary subsystem, a net of all-Crimean nine water reservoirs was created, with a total volume of 150 million m3. Additionally, Crimea has fourteen indigenous river reservoirs in the Crimean Mountains. This immediately killed Crimean agriculture, with farmers having to abandon rice cultivation and reduce the area of other crops, primarily corn and soybeans. Moreover, it caused an ecological disaster in Armyansk in the largest manufacturer of titanium dioxide pigment in Eastern Europe the “Crimean Titan.” In September 2018, because of the lack of water, chemical waste began to evaporate into the atmosphere. As a result, occupational authorities evacuated about four thousand children and adolescents from Northern Crimea. As a solution, Russia is establishing a sophisticated system of Artesian wells, but they cannot be considered as a panacea. Scientists say that frequent use of water from underground sources can lead to soil salinization. Plus, Crimean farmers have altered their tactics from the system which existed prior to 2014, and are changing grain varieties to those that are able to survive under harsher conditions.
For a clear picture of how the water shortages are harming the Crimean economy, it is possible to make a simple comparison of the irrigated lands in Crimea: during the Soviet period, it reached 402 thousand ha; before annexation in 2013, the area of had been reduced to 140 and consequently in 2014 – 17; 2015 – 10; in 2017 – 14; 2018 -17. By the end of 2020, Russia plans to reach 20 thousand hectares. According to the Crimean Ministry of Agriculture, farmers and companies in Crimea have made losses exceeding 14 billion rubles per year due to lack of water. Concurrently, Russia allocates around 300 million Rubles for the restoration of irrigation lands in Crimea every year.
In order to somehow restore the agrarian sector in Northern Crimea (part of the Pontic-Caspian steppe), Russia is taking serious measures yet they are not enough. Strategically speaking, the main concern of Russia is stabilizing the situation with water for civil consumption and preventing water shortages in the upcoming tourist season that will start at the end of May. Crimean authorities are convinced that the region will have enough reserves of natural flow in the reservoirs to last until June, and these reserves are now only 37% full. The situation may become dramatic, because after launching a full-fledged railway connection, there are huge hopes that a record number of tourists are going to come to Crimea. According to Russia’s plans, the full water independence of the Crimean Peninsula has to be achieved by 2025. According to the official document “Crimean Strategy 2030”, 2.34 million people will reside in the peninsula by 2030 (not including Sevastopol). Interestingly, the biggest concentration of indigenous peoples – the Crimean Tatars – are concentrated precisely in the steppe zone of Crimea and their agrarian businesses are the most affected.
The water crisis in Crimea has received attention from both Ukraine and Russia. For example, right after visiting Turkey, Vladimir Putin criticized local officials for the lack of attention towards solving the issues of water supply during a meeting on the socio-economic development of Crimea and Sevastopol. Crimean authorities have repeatedly offered to buy water from Ukraine, but Ukraine has refused such offers. However, recently some Ukrainian politicians from Zelensky’s party “Servant of the People” have expressed a readiness to sell water to Crimea. The head of the budget committee of the Ukrainian Parliament, Yuriy Aristov, stressed that Ukraine can sell the Dnieper water, as Israel does to belligerent countries. For the Crimean Tatar Mejlis, the only option of restoring the water supplies to Crimea is de-occupation. Even speaking about such an opportunity “means to surrender from the de-occupation of the peninsula”. Another representative of Zelensky’s party, the head of the parliamentary majority, Davyd Arakhamia, has admitted the possibility of resumption of the water supply to Crimea in exchange for concessions related to Russia’s involvement in the Donbas. According to him, same Ukrainian citizens are living in Crimea. Additionally, some Crimean Tatars in Ukraine have proposed the exchange of water for Crimean Tatar prisoners.
The situation in Crimea is extremely reminiscent of Cyprus, where both communities are living under a constant threat of drought and are counting every drop of water. Plus, Turkey completed an unprecedented project in 2014, named the Northern Cyprus Water Supply pipeline. Russia has a similar project to deliver water from the Kuban River to Crimea. The main conclusion is that Crimea is able to survive without water from Ukraine, but it will be impossible to restore the agrarian sector to the level prior to 2014, while the Crimean tourism sector in particular will face a huge challenge. Strategically speaking, the issue of water can take on a military aspect, if Russia is not able to find the solution inside the Crimean Peninsula. Especially, a week ago when the SBU has found nearby the Canal the cache of weapons and explosives.
Autor
Ridvan Bari Urcosta
Senior Analyst at Strategy&Future
Strategy&Future
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