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The United States and China are in the close fight engaging resources to increase activity in areas and places that have certainly not yet been high on their list of priorities.
The American Dream in the former Soviet republics
An example of such involvement can be seen in the recent visit of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Belarus and his assurance of the possibility of support this country in the field of oil supply. It was the first visit of the US Secretary of State to Belarus in over 25 years. Given that until now both countries had maintained rather cold relations, and Belarus – it would seem – had almost naturally entered the sphere of influence of Russia, the words of Mike Pompeo quoted by the international media sounded surprising: “We’re the biggest energy producer in the world, and all you have to do is call us”.
The uniqueness of Pompeo’s meeting with Lukashenko meant that the Polish media slightly overlooked the fact that it was just one of several stops on the route of an Eastern tour by the US Secretary of State, during which at the turn of January and February he visited Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. This is a signal that the US is attempting to review its existing policy of limited involvement in the affairs of Russia’s informal protectorate.
This policy is even more palpable in the light of the declaration of February 15 at the Munich Security Conference on US support to the Three Seas countries with a billion (for now) of dollars in energy investments in the region.
So far, focusing on strengthening ties with Western countries, European integration and taking advantage of the benefits of global market we (here in Poland) have not been able to develop a coherent Eastern policy. In the popular imagination, the former Soviet republics are still seen as unattractive areas.
In the new era that is upon us the relations with our eastern neighbors can constitute a strong “bargaining chip” and translate into the strengthening of the international position of Poland and of the entire region. Consequently, the somewhat forgotten doctrine of Mieroszewski and Giedroyc is gaining new significance (as it needs revision, as well), as has been outlined here recently at Strategy&Future.
In the arms of Russia
Due to the orientation of Warsaw more to the west there may be an unjust tendency in the public consciousness to belittle Ukraine’s position as only “Western Europe, Russia and US matter”. This simplification may prove harmful in the long run, although it is now accepted as a rule in wide circles.
It should not be forgotten, however, that in terms of area, Ukraine is our largest neighbour (second in terms of population and third in terms of GDP – not including the Russian Federation).
At the same time, the gravitation to the core area of Russia naturally meant that the eastern part of Ukraine was developing much more dynamically and constituted the economic strength of the state. Nevertheless, this negatively affected the economic growth of the western regions neighbouring Poland. Recent events, however, show that Ukraine – perhaps for evaluating concessions towards Russia – will seek to strengthen relations with its partners abroad, including Warsaw.
Suffice to mention that just after the US Secretary of State’s visit to Kiev, President Zelensky of Ukraine met the President Recep Erdogan of Turkey. As reported in official communications, as a result of this visit, an agreement was signed in which both countries committed themselves to further deepening the strategic partnership and doubling the value of mutual trade to $10 billion by 2023. Zelensky emphasised the strategic importance of economic exchange with Turkey, and at a press conference he concluded that he had talked with Erdogan about virtually everything – roads, housing and broadly understood business. Military support in the amount of $36 million, which Turkey has declared it would provide to Ukraine, is also significant. It is difficult to estimate whether these types of activities carried out by Ankara are more pro-Ukrainian or rather anti-Russian, but they fit perfectly – perhaps accidentally, into the US policy of support for Ukraine initiated in 2014.
In view of Ukraine’s resolute position regarding local elections in Donbas, which, according to Zelensky’s declaration, will take place only after Kiev regains full control over the border with Russia, the search for military and economic allies is understandable. Tensions around the implementation of the Steinmeier Formula were also evident during the December meeting of the Normandy Format.
Only in Lviv …
The city of Lviv can play a special role in this puzzle, due to its strategic geographical location. The city is situated exactly on the great European watershed between the catchment area of the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. The waters of the central and north-eastern part of the city through the Poltva and the Bug flow into the Vistula, and its western and southern part lies in the Dniester basin. The key urban organisms of continental Europe have historically arisen in the valley of large navigable rivers, which was to ensure the growing city constant access to water, protection and communication. Lviv – breaking away from this pattern – was located on the small river Poltva, which in the face of the dynamically growing number of inhabitants even caused some complications with the supply of drinking water.
As can be seen from the example of Lviv, communication and the economic potential following it allowed the dynamic development of the city, despite its unfavourable geographical conditions. Referring to its historical traditions, in view of the changes taking place in the world, the unique position of Lviv allows us to look at this city as a new locomotive of the Ukrainian economy, based on international trade and commodity exchange services.
At that time, 2.217.400 passengers used air transport in Lviv. The most popular travel destinations were: Warsaw, Istanbul and Munich. The number of flight operations performed also increased from 15,430 to 18,963 (an increase of 22.9%). For comparison, a total of 1,129,604 passengers used the nearest international ports on the Polish side of the border – Rzeszów and Lublin – in 2019, i.e. twice as few. The dynamics of passenger growth is even more impressive because only four years ago, in 2015, Rzeszów airport could boast of better statistics. At that time, the capital of the Podkarpackie region served 645,214 travelers, while Lviv served only 570,570. Reacting to the development of the airport in Lviv, the Ukrainian infrastructure ministry is currently considering the possibility of transforming it into an intermodal communication hub, whose main goal is to provide convenient connections for business.
This huge increase in the popularity of air travel also indicates the increased mobility of Ukrainians.
Connectivity, you fool!
The effects of increased mobility of Ukrainians are also felt in rail transport in the immediate vicinity, just behind the western border. In 2019, out of 624,000 passengers leaving Ukraine to the European Union and back, more than half a million traveled through the Central Station in Przemyśl (pop. 70,000). This is just one of many examples where the current infrastructure does not meet the requirements of the new circumstances. In response to this demand, grass-roots initiatives have been created, such as a group of residents promoting the idea of the Przemyśl Passenger and Rail Interchange Hub.
New directions of population migration and capital flows within Central and Eastern Europe undoubtedly require thoughtful solutions. These needs were perfectly identified by the Czech carrier Leo Express, which at the end of last year received the approval of the Office of Rail Transport to launch a connection from Prague to Terespol. The second Leo Express application for a passenger connection from Prague to the Polish-Ukrainian border in Medyka is also under consideration. One can only hope that Polish carriers will also benefit from these new opportunities appearing just beyond our eastern border. A certain answer to the new communication challenges are planned public investments, e.g. the construction of a new border crossing in Malhowice (which has a planned budget of PLN 100 million), the expansion of the multimodal terminal in Małaszewicze and road investments in the east, supplemented by non-governmental initiatives in that region, such as the activities of the Galician Iron Road Foundation or the 102 Line Association.
In the context of changes in the communication system in the east, Ukrainian media has recently received information about plans to build a double-track railway line with a “European” wheel base from Lviv to the Polish border.
Although plans for this type of investment have been discussed many times in the past 10 years, the circumstances for its implementation have never been as favorable as they are today. For Polish interests, it would certainly be beneficial to “connect” Lviv to our transport system, but it should be borne in mind that as a consequence of such a maneuver, some Polish towns, which until now have been major destination stations, would change their function becoming purely transit points.
In light of this information, last year’s declaration by the Turkish Minister of Transport about Ankara’s interest in building new logistics hubs in Ukraine and Georgia is gaining new significance. As Minister Kemal Guney said at the time, the development of connections in the Black Sea will bring tangible benefits in the transport sectors of both countries. Thus, cooperation between Turkey and Ukraine will most likely tighten as the connections on the New Silk Road route develop, and the expansion of these connections seems to be only a matter of time.
It was CRCC that built – among other things – the famous super-fast Beijing-Shanghai railway line with a length of 1,318 kilometers with trains reaching speeds of up to 350 km/h. The construction of this technical miracle lasted only 3 years. Working with CRCC, Ukrainian Railways are to acquire knowledge and support in developing their own infrastructure.
The purpose of cooperation is to prepare for the Ukrainian Railways principles of strategic management and technical support in the field of passenger transport, cargo and development of railway infrastructure. The potential for the development of the transport industry in Ukraine is also attracting companies operating in the logistics sector. In mid-February, information was confirmed that a company managing transshipment terminals and owned by one of the world’s richest tycoons – DP World, based in Dubai – will acquire a 51% majority share in the TIS Container Terminal located in the Port of Yuzhne, near Odessa. Approximately 219,000 TEU were transhipped at this terminal in 2019, which represented a 75% increase from the 2018 result. After closing the transaction, Ukraine will become the 51st country in which DP World operates.
Finale
For every tourist visiting Lviv, one of the most important points of the visit is the building of the Lviv Opera House. This building was built at the turn of the century, and was built with great impetus by the outstanding architect prof. Zygmunt Gorgolewski. After the construction of the new building, the first director of the Lviv Theater was Tadeusz Pawlikowski, who, by the way, was born and raised in my hometown – Medyka.
The Lviv Opera House is a special place for Polish culture and national heritage. For me personally, it is the greatest symbol of this city – it combines all the qualities that Lviv has itself – beauty, culture, art and virtuosity. The situation in the world of geopolitics is developing very dynamically and in order for Poles to better understand the changes taking place in it, it is worth listening to the signals coming from just behind our eastern border. Perhaps, the development of events will mean that the sounds of the new concert of powers will reach us – purely metaphorically but extremely loudly – from the majestic edifice of the Lviv Opera House.
Autor
Marcin Kulaszka
Attorney-at-law, a University of Warsaw graduate, a keen observer of existing correlations and adjustments being applied in the global economy and societies. He specializes in business legal support, with particular emphasis on international entities, and a broadly defined law of contracts. Marcin was involved in numerous non-standard projects, including those of cross-border nature, requiring „outside the box” legal solutions. In Amsterdam he worked for one of the largest American corporations managing a global logistics real estate portfolio. Currently, working for a state-owned company established to develop one of infrastructural projects of strategic economic importance.
In Marcin’s view, the key for the growth of societies and wealth creation is care for quality of interpersonal communication, promotion of interdisciplinary knowledge and continuous development.
Strategy&Future
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