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Belarus
The political situation in Belarus is increasingly volatile, and the election process is developing in an increasingly unpredictable fashion. Both the opposition and Lukashenko administration are preparing sophisticated strategies in order to gain political capital before this Sunday’s presidential elections. Needless to say, the peculiar case of Wagner Group has been the most striking example of the turmoil Belarus is currently witnessing. At the same time, Lukashenka is preparing to deliver his pre-election address this Tuesday. Lukashenko hopes this will be another step towards final victory and might create a platform for a belligerent attack on Russia and the West. Ahead of the elections, Lukashenko went on a spending spree; pensions and child benefits are to be raised; likewise, financial support to law-enforcement agencies and the Army was promised.
According to one poll, 89.5% of the population are planning to take part in the voting (up from 87.3% two weeks ago). 72.3% of Belarusians are ready to vote for Lukashenka, only 7.5% of respondents were ready to vote for Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.
Minsk is continuing its policy of building energy independence. For example, a tanker carrying Azerbaijani oil will arrive at the port of Odesa on August 4-5; oil will then be delivered to Belarussian refineries via rail. Of more strategic interest is the decision to build a very important Gomel-Gorki oil pipeline in record time. The project should be completed in 2023. The construction of the Gomel-Gorki oil trunk pipeline will make it possible to unite the existing pipeline system on the territory of the country by connecting the two existing trunk pipelines Unecha-Polotsk and Unecha-Mozyr-Adamovo. Currently, the Sokar Construction Company of Azerbaijan is actively negotiating its participation in the construction of the Gomel-Gorki pipeline and hopes to continue the implementation of long-term projects in the Republic of Belarus.
The Minsk Wagner festival
Last Thursday, 33 mercenaries employed by the Wagner Group were arrested in the suburbs of Minsk, amid accusations of attempting to stir up chaos in the country. Soon after, the Election Committee organized an emergency meeting with all the candidates and provided the latest information about this incident, while at the same time informing of additional safety precaution. State Secretary of the Security Council Andrei Ravkov said that according to operational information gathered, there are about 200 militants on the territory of Belarus, but the remaining 167 have not yet been found. He told reporters that a criminal case had been opened; arrested men stand to be indicted on charges of plotting a terrorist attack.
Lukashenko’s announcement, amounting to nothing less than openly accusing Russia of terrorist ploy has been as unexpected as it is potentially consequential. It should be noted that for Russia the best scenario is to engineer a situation in which Lukashenka is forced to use violence against protesters. In such a situation, the West will react by introducing sanctions and there will be a new period of isolation towards the regime. Thus, the Wagner Group is a very useful tool to create provocations. However, there are still many questions and it is impossible to ignore the fact that the regime is linking the “Wagner Group” to the court trials against the blogger Sergey Tichanovsky (whose wife she is the main opposition candidate). According to Tikhanovskaya, her husband was shocked by this allegation. Given the new charges, Tikhanovsky faces up to 12 years in prison.
Opposition leaders are traveling around the country with their rallies gathering thousands and thousands of people, which is an unprecedented level of participation in the country’s history.
The Ukrainian Factor in the row between Belarus and Russia
The fact that Minsk has welcomed Ukraine to the current confrontation with Moscow is a source of irritation for Moscow. Right after publishing the information about the arrests of Wagner Group mercenaries, Belarus almost immediately sent personal data of the arrested militants to Kyiv allowing it to link it with their participation in the Ukrainian Civil War. The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) announced that it will ask Minsk for the extradition of soldiers from the Wagner Group who participated in the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. According to preliminary data, some of the detainees are Ukrainians who are wanted by the police, some of them associated with the highly controversial website “Mirotvorec”. At the same time, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia does not recognize their Ukrainian citizenship and considers them Russian nationals. The most intriguing question now is whether or not Lukashenka will allow these soldiers to be extradited to Ukraine. If he allows it to happen, his relationship with Moscow may suffer irreparable damage. Moreover, Belarus and Ukraine discussed strengthening border controls by foreign citizens and the countries discussed the opportunity of a visit by Vladimir Zelensky to Belarus in September.
However, it should be noted that the Ukrainian scenario in Lukashenka’s viewpoint is nothing other than a “scarecrow” because, according to his statements, revolution and subsequent economic and geopolitical consequences is the most undesirable scenario for his country. If the protests are suppressed particularly harshly, the EU could extend personal sanctions against Belarusian politicians. There is reason to believe that Ukraine will join these restrictive measures – as it has done in previous years.
The Polish Factor in Belarus
“Solidarity” for Belarus
14 former leaders of the Polish trade union Solidarity, which led the movement to overthrow communism in Poland in the late 1980s, sent an open letter to Belarusians, which noted, that “Remembering the personal experience of many generations who fought for freedom, we say clearly that the citizens of Belarus are not alone and cannot be left alone in the struggle. Supporting an independent, free and democratic Belarus is a moral obligation of modern democratic leaders.
Polish-Belarusian diplomatic contacts
Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz and Belarusian Foreign Minister Uladzimir Makei held telephone talks. The conversation took place at the initiative of the Polish side. According to the Polish Foreign Ministry’s Twitter account, Czaputowicz “drew attention to the need to release political prisoners, and also stressed Poland’s support for the independence of Belarus and its development, a condition for which is a real dialogue between the authorities and society.” The press release of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry does not say that the topic of political prisoners was touched upon during the talks. However, we note with interest the section on “Belarusian and Polish proposals for the implementation of a number of regional initiatives.” Most likely, this will have involved discussion on the recent geopolitical initiative between Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine: the Lublin Triangle.
More on the Wagner Group: What do Belarus and Russia make of the whole situation?
Right after the news about the “Wagner Group” an emergency meeting of the Belarussian Security Council was held with all security institutions present. Lukashenka was quite careful in phrasing his position vis a vis Russia, but at the same time, he made it known that Minsk would not tolerate such behavior from Moscow. In Russia, the situation is framed as a “provocation” and Kremlin most likely will attempt to use it for political purposes. Konstantin Zatulin, First Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration and Relations with Compatriots, stressed that “Lukashenka risked relations with Russia for his own interests in order to re-impose himself as president when the protest movement started gaining momentum. Russia has not the slightest relation to this.” The position of the Russian side is that this group arrived in Belarus in transit and was heading for Istanbul. Vladimir Putin chaired a meeting of the Security Council, during which he expressed hope that the Russians would soon be released and that ‘baseless charges’ would be dropped. The Russian Foreign Ministry, in turn, called the information of the Belarusian authorities an “odious interpretation” of the situation. On August 1, representatives of the consular section of the Russian Embassy visited the detainees. Now both sides have increased controls on the Russian-Belarus border.
After the first statements from both sides, active diplomatic negotiations began. Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Andrei Rudenko invited the Ambassador of the Republic of Belarus Vladimir Semashko “for a detailed discussion of the state and prospects of bilateral Russian-Belarusian relations.”
Interestingly, most Russians have a positive attitude towards President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. Data from a study published by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center shows that the attitude towards the President of Belarus corresponds to the attitude towards the country: positive or neutral. Every second Russian (52%) has a positive attitude towards the head of the Belarusian state. A third (35%) reported an indifferent attitude towards the country’s leader, and only 9% have a negative attitude towards him.
Bulgaria
In the past few weeks Sofia and other major Bulgarian cities saw a number of protests erupt, but the end of July brought these expressions of discontent to a new level. Protesters are now more organized and their aim is clearly to undermine the influence of current Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and Prosecutor General Ivan Geshev. The protesters established camps in Sofia and are determined to continue their protests, blocking the main government buildings. The nature of the protests is the same as seen elsewhere in Eastern Europe: people protesting against rampant corruption, long-standing ties between the government and over-influential oligarchs, massive over-construction on the coast and other environmental problems. In his attempt to calm down the protests Borisov dismissed several ministers (including the finance and interior ministers), but this appears not to have worked and the appetite of the opposition is now growing.
The protesters’ leadership does not represent a traditional format of opposition, as it is composed of three representatives of the liberal opposition. All three have a background in journalism, art, or law. Partial leadership of the protests was additionally taken by the organization “BOEC” (the fighter). BOEC was formed in 2013, during the previous big anti-government protest wave. The demand of the protesters to overthrow the current government was several times called by the leadership. According to one of the trio of protest leaders, the number of active supporters may be close to 100,000, though most estimates are closer to 20-30,000.
U.S. Troops in Eastern Europe
American troops became the most desirable “pie”(price?) for Eastern European countries. The competition over who is going to host US assets is heating up, every country is struggling to reach the best conditions for its own people in terms of the number of troops and the headquarter of a future U.S. military base in Eastern Europe.
The Balkans
Washington may send troops to Bulgaria and Romania as part of the redistribution of US forces in Europe. This was reported by the Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the Pentagon’s plans. According to the newspaper, a relocation of Stryker brigades to Bulgaria and Romania is possible as a result of President Trump’s decision to withdraw 12,000 troops from Germany, nearly half of which will be sent elsewhere in Europe, including the Black Sea region. The process could take years and cost at least $6 billion. Stryker Brigades are combat teams of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of vehicles, ready to be transferred by transport aircraft and deployed within 96 hours.
Lithuania
The United States will deploy a battalion of troops to Lithuania this autumn for a rotation of more than half a year, said Defence Minister Raimundas Karoblis. A battalion is coming from Poland in mid-September for two weeks of training in Pabradė. After a break of several weeks or a month, there are plans to deploy most of the battalion to Pabradė again until late June next year. Hundreds of American troops were stationed in Pabradė, close to Vilnius, between October 2019 and June 2020 as part of the first US battalion rotation. According to Karoblis, the deployment was considered by the Americans to be a “complete success”, and formed the basis for further work. The defence minister’s comment came shortly after US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said “there are opportunities” to send additional American forces to Poland and the Baltic states as the United States are slashing its military presence in Germany. Without going into detail on specific capabilities, Karoblis said that US troops are already present in Lithuania, but the country is seeking a larger presence in order “to have a greater deterrence and defence effect”. Lithuania must invest in its infrastructure to be able to host American troops, Karoblis noted. US officials also say that American troop deployments to Lithuania have been made possible by the country’s investment in the military.
Ukraine
Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine
Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine Valery Kondratyuk this week wrote an article in a Ukrainian newspaper where he presented his agency’s forecast regarding the future of Ukraine. Let me present the main point of his article:
These units will become fully operational in the near future.
Egypt and China the main importers of Ukrainian grain
Ukraine – in the 2019/2020 season (July-June) – carried out grain shipments to 58 countries of the world. Egypt is the largest importer of Ukrainian grain with an indicator of 7.09 million tons. According to the published research “Export of grain from the ports of Ukraine” by Stark Shipping (which displays the period from July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020), Egypt in the 2019/2020 season increased grain imports from Ukraine by 2.3 million tons compared to the 2018/2019 season. According to the research, China is the second-largest importer of Ukrainian grain. Last season, China purchased 6.2 million tons, which is 1.8 million tons more than in the previous season. Spain and the Netherlands are the main importers of Ukrainian grain among European countries. Spain in the 2019/2020 marketing year purchased 4.63 million tons of grain, 4.5 million tons – the Netherlands. The results of the study showed that Kernel became the largest shipper of grain in the 2019-2020 season with an indicator of 7.98 million tons, which is 13.29% of the market. At the same time, the company increased shipments by 1.9 million tons over the year. The increase in shipments was facilitated by the launch of the Transgrain terminal in the port of Chornomorsk.
Ukraine and Romania
The international ferry crossing point of the Romanian-Ukrainian state border between Isakcia (Romania) and Orlovka (Ukraine) will open on August 10, as soon as freight traffic is allowed. It is noted that the Orlovka-Isakcha crossing will allow carriers to shorten the road by almost 200 km.
U.S. financial support for military purposes
The US Senate has introduced a bill that proposes to provide Ukraine with $300 million a year in military assistance to counter Russian aggression. This was reported by the press service of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The $300 million in military aid includes the supply of lethal weapons. The project also proposes to allocate $4 million for the training of Ukrainian officers and accelerate the transfer of surplus US military property to Ukraine. One of the sponsors of the bill, Senator Jeanne Shaheen, noted that supporting Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia is extremely important for global security. It is also recommended that a special group be set up with European allies on Ukraine and that a special envoy be appointed for Ukraine to act as a US liaison in the Normandy peace talks and to facilitate dialogue between Black Sea countries.
The Black Sea
U.S. Navy Conducts Joint Operations with U.S. Air Force in the Black Sea (U.S. 6th Fleet, headquartered in Naples, Italy).
The Arleigh Burke-class, guided-missile destroyer USS Porter (DDG 78), a P-8A Poseidon Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA) from Patrol Squadron VP-47, four F-16 Fighting Falcons from the 31st Fighter Wing, Aviano Air Base, Italy, KC-135 Stratotankers from the 100th Aerial Refueling wing, Mildenhall, England, and an MQ-9 Reaper assigned to the 52nd Expeditionary Operations Group Detachment 2, Miroslawiec Air Base, Poland, conducted a joint training mission in the Black Sea, Aug. 2, 2020. The training mission occurred in international waters and airspace within the Black Sea and was designed to train U.S. forces to integrate, operate and communicate while executing surface and air operations. Participating units conducted training scenarios that included tactical maneuvering and communications.
“The purpose of this training event was to exercise command and control in a joint training environment with our U.S. Air Force brothers and sisters to increase our tactical proficiency, and Porter’s crew did just that,” said Cmdr. Craig Trent, Porter’s commanding officer. “This training enabled us to continue to build on our combined capability to quickly and effectively respond to any threats in the complex maritime environment.” Porter and the P-8A Poseidon are currently operating in the Black Sea following participation in the 20th iteration of Exercise Sea Breeze, an annual, multinational maritime exercise co-led by the U.S. and Ukraine and designed to enhance interoperability among participating nations and strengthen regional security in the Black Sea. Joint training missions like this are vital to the readiness of U.S. military forces and demonstrate the capability to integrate platforms across multiple domains.
Autor
Ridvan Bari Urcosta
Senior Analyst at Strategy&Future
Strategy&Future
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