(pixabay.com)
From the XVIII century until the present day, this dominance has remained and the dynamic of the global situation manifests that this overarching dominance will remain over the next decades. After the Second World War, the United States committed themselves to the principles of the freedom of navigation for ensuring maritime security and safety. Possibly, the United State would try to be the main leader establishing almost the same regime, but this time in space. The commitment to freedom of navigation was demonstrated by the U.S. when President Theodore Roosevelt sent the Great White Fleet in 1907 to journey around the globe. Since then, there has been a continuity of this policy and it’s likely they will extend this in space. In these regards, Trevor Brown from Auburn University suggests that “…in the process of protecting these assets, which enable highly sophisticated modes of war and activities in society, the United States should be careful to not appear belligerent to other nations around the globe. If the United States engages in cavalier and arrogant moves to weaponize space in an effort to protect its critical assets, it could spark a backlash, which could damage its soft power and, in turn, its comprehensive national power, which includes all aspects of power. There can be little doubt that these assets need to be protected, but the provision of this protection will require a significant amount of political skill. In this regard, it would be wise for American space strategists to consult classic sea power strategists.”[1]
Geopoltics operates and tries to understand human history and the future through the reflections and examination on the planet Earth. Consequently, in order to understand the next environment where great power rivalry is going to happen, which has nothing in common with our Earth, the term “Astropolitics” was introduced. The subject is the same as Geopolitics, but the difference is the domain – this time it is Outer Space or, more precisely, our Solar System.
In his work “De revolutionibus orbium coelestium” (On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres), Copernicus proposed the heliocentric theory, where the planets pivot around the sun. Given the next space of competition of the great powers will be our Solar System, it is also possible to use the term “Heliopolitics”. Whenever the label ends up becoming commonplace, people will need to differentiate the politics on Earth and politics in space. The Heliopolitics is both about traditional geopolitical competition and about the system of economic relations between the different colonies on the planet and satellites, space stations, the policy of competition for the minerals, or even about the social and political order which is one day is going to occur. This term is closer to the “International Relations” than to the Geopolitics/Astropolitcs but definitely includes the elements of them, as the International Relations do as a science. The nature of the Space will force intellectual tradition to divide the theory of International Relations from the future political relations in the Solar System.
The frontier of humanity in Solar Space will be slowly moving from the following stages:
1. Earth Orbit as part of the traditional geopolitics;
2. Moon policies and moon colonies with the developed economic system of the extraction of minerals. For a certain period, it again will be part of the geopolitics;
3. The situation is going to change when humanity will reach Mars and its satellites. It would mean that humanity reached the highest level of technological development and is able to maintain human existence in these objects. Gradually the settlements will develop the economic and social order that is adjustable for living in the space;
4. How long it is going to take is unknown but for sure that all the above-mentioned stages are going to take in the first “sphere” known as – “Asteroid Belt” or Terrestrial planets system. This belt is dividing the first four planets from the rest of the planets of the Solar System.
5. The next stage is the stage of highest development because in order to reach Jupiter it will require greater efforts of humankind that it was before. For example the distance between Mars and Jupiter 342,012,346 miles (3.68 AU) or between Earth and Mars 48,678,219 (0.52 AU);
6. Jupiter and Saturn have several highly attractive objects for humankind it is the satellites of these enormous planets. The Jupiters have so-called Galilean Moons (Ganymede and Calisto) and Saturn possession Titan which is very close to Earth, where clear evidence of stable bodies of surface liquid has been found;
7. The destiny of the Uranus and Neptune with their satellites will be a matter of the time if humanity will reach the stage which we analyzed above;
8. The final stage of the epopee of colonization of the Solar System will be when people would able to have stable access to the Pluto, Haumea, Orcus, and Ixion. After these objects, only the Kuiper Belt Objects which is defending as placenta our Solar System from the astronomical disturbances of the Outer Space. As deeply as we are going to explore the Solar System, in the same shape, we are able to witness the development of the Astropolitics and Heliopolitcs. How long everything is going to take, it is hard to predict, but it is certain that if on our planet there will be a stable situation, it is the issue of the century when the spaceships or fully operational drones are going to able to reach the beyond the Asteroid Belt. The first three stages are imminently going to become a step up within the next three-four decades.
Without Space Ideology, there is no Space Power
The strategic culture or ethos of the colonial nations derives from religious zealotry, curiosity and men’s adventurism. Maybe it is always important to indicate that people simply wanted to become richer, hence often reasons were very merchant and mercantilist. But for the state as a political animal, it was beyond primitive enrichment. It was about prestige and power. John Hickman, for instance, writes that it is a question of prestige – “International prestige is only one of the possible reasons that Beijing may attempt to annex territory on the Moon. States are motivated to annex new sovereign territory and acquire new client states when these territories offer power and resources that may be useful in other potentially violent encounters in the international arena.”[2] It was a combination of factors but on the other hand, they were events of human courage and adventurism. Europeans were hungry and aggressive for science and endeavors in the world. The main instruments which made such a revolution possible were vessels and ships that brought our ancestors to all the corners of this planet. The global civilization is amazing only thanks to these people. They had unity among the leaders and peoples to implement such an expansionist policy. Thus, for centuries it became a deeply rooted element of the strategic culture of the Europeans and their descendants.
For example, Thomas Cremins and Paul Spudis even provided valuable research regarding the geopolitical and strategic implications of the Cislunar Space[3]. They see both geopolitical and economic drivers of humanity control the communicational lines between the Earth and Moon (400,000 km) and again they found inspiration from the maritime strategy and especially from Mahan’s intellectual heritage. They call on the U.S. establishment for the development of a strategic and comprehensive Cislunar Strategy. For these purposes, they have proposed Rear Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan’s postulates: to display the flag, open new markets to U.S. commerce, protect commerce, aid vessels in distress, extend the bounds of oceanography (and other scientific research), clear the seas of pirates, and project power.[4] One of those who implemented these postulates according to its authors was President Theodore Roosevelt, who made a shift outwards in a manner that unified the nation beyond the frontier of the American West to the new oceans and frontiers of the world and became the national ethos of the United States.
Nowadays humanity is in front of a new military domain and a new frontier that can transform our entire social order of European and other civilizations. However, I have huge doubts that European civilization or merely the West has this potential. It is possible to witness currently the type of cultural expansion into human nature and destroy all foundations that actually enabled the Age of Discovery and we see that the heritage of it is arising from the European cultural memory. Strikingly, the strategic cultures of Russia and China still possess these foundations. Apparently, it is a result of the fact that our society has found the mental and geographical “fence” on this planet and a crisis has commenced due to this. The end of the frontier and the end of the process of expansion negatively affects countries. The West is, therefore, facing existential challenges that must eventually be overcome.
New frontiers open up to those nations who possess an aggressive strategic culture and a strong national ethos, and the maritime history of the Europeans is its direct evidence.
War in Earth’s Orbit and Outer Space
A space war in Earth’s orbit (mesosphere-thermosphere-exosphere) is different in nature and in logic than war and competition in outer space. As I already pointed out, space wars in Earth’s orbit are going to be a part of traditional geopolitics, because it is not going to be simply fully independent warfare from Planet Earth. It will be nothing more than a more sophisticated war on our planet between belligerent states where a new additional domain was attached. The Persian Gulf War (1991) was the first pattern for such future wars and the space factor was included. Another important example from the Cold War was when Soviet engineers carefully analyzed the pictures of the Space Shuttle and came out with the following conclusion, that: “An American shuttle with a carrying capacity of 30 tons, if loaded with nuclear warheads, is capable of flying outside the radio-visibility zone of the Russian missile attack warning system. Having performed an aerodynamic maneuver, for example, over the Gulf of Guinea, it can release them through the territory of the USSR.”[5] James Clay Moltz from the Naval Postgraduate Institute is critically wondering if it is not clear how orbital space would be controlled. Although analysts cite predominance in space-based platforms and an ability to overwhelm potential adversaries with lasers and kinetic-kill weapons, the viability of “control” remains questionable in a situation where defenses are extremely costly from space, weapons systems are highly transparent (and in predictable orbits), and existing ground systems can be used to attack space assets.[6] He provides many interesting arguments against the “naval control” theory, but in our case, he is asking objective questions and the only answer to this is that theory once becomes practice and practice is changing theory.
The war in the Outer Space again brings an analogy with sea power and the theory of naval warfare. Let us create a theoretical model that helps us understand the similarities between sea and space power. Model: two or three great powers succeed to obtain true space power status (with the elements of space control and command of space) that permits them to the projection of power, both military and political in the areas beyond Earth’s orbit and they established on the Moon or between the Moon and Earth, their own sovereign space stations that can defend themselves and handle independent military operations. This immediately creates a system of geopolitical competition in the entire area of human activities in space.
Projection of the power in Outer Space will certainly require from them the creation of a sophisticated system of space stations (fortresses) and a space fleet or even fleets if we speak about the later future. The air power element will appear when the flagship or space type aircraft carrier will have different types of drones and warships for direct military engagement with the enemy. However, I would agree with Howard Kleinberg who overwhelmingly supports the concept that in a direct hot war in space, the closest to space realities is airpower: “Space shares more parallels with air than it does with any other medium. From the foregoing analysis, it can be seen that while naval warfare theory has a great many critical aspects in common with those of space warfare, most of the attributes of space warfare actually find greater commonality with those of air warfare. Given these fundamental differences in the nature and paradigms of naval warfare compared with that of space, theories of naval warfare provide an inadequate basis upon which to formulate a space warfare theory.”[7]
The stations and fortresses are a very important asset in Outer Space, due to the fact that in space, the strategic rear (closer to the sea) is absent, but in the space situation, it is much more difficult because space allows the use of an additional dimension; as in the air dimension, it is possible to operate with rotating ships as aircrafts do in the air. It is possible to achieve the rear if systems of space stations or fortresses were created. If it is possible to classify future wars, they can be in the following order:
One small but interesting analogy is space mines. If to compare the use of mines in sea and land, we would definitely agree that sea mines by the concept of use are closer to the space mines. Mine warfare will be necessary for space warfare as at sea or on land. Mines will have the same tasks as they have on the Earth: protect from the perimeter, vital installations, important areas, military camps, essential resources, and networked infrastructure from surprise intrusions by the enemy.[8]
Commerce and Navy
Initially, the Age of Discovery was not started by the militaries and soldiers. It was started for commercial purposes, as the state tried only to encourage or partially to support them financially. The state as an institute arrives slightly later to the process of colonization. The role of private enterprises on the space direction is only increasing in the world. The evidence of it is possible to be found in the United States, Russia or in China, the last two having publicly voiced their interest in commercial mining on the Moon. The space industry in the minds of ordinary people still remains the prerogative of the state but this is changing. It’s enough to mention Elon Musk, who is making serious progress in developing the space industry, but again as the King was supporting Christopher Columbus, similarly the U.S. government supports Musk’s adventures.
Law of the Sea and Space Law
Interestingly, and understandably, most specialists on Space Law have derived their theories from air law. This happened due to the nature of the current status quo, in which space policy is totally linked to the Earth and its orbit. The force connecting space and humankind is the air force, therefore it was a basic foundation for space law, but the more advanced space programs become, the closer they will be to the law of the sea. Prof. Armel Kerrest, a specialist on space law from the European Space Agency, highlights the following similarities between the sea and space:[9]
It is important to note that the commercial use of the Moon and Mars will require more serious juridical elaboration and development than at present. The issue of ownership, mining and drillings must be tackled, especially to establish the most comfortable regime for all international participants. Andrew Brearley from the University of Southampton adds to this that a lunar mining activity only needs to avoid inconveniencing other states and to be open to the consultation as to the nature of the activities.[10]
Spaceship vs. Spacecraft
A lot of aeronautical terminology comes from the nautical world. Currently, humanity possesses nothing except spacecraft, but it seems that in the nearest future we will witness the first spaceships of their kind. What is the difference between these two machines? Nowadays our humankind space technology allows us to use vehicles that are able to bring only a limited number of pilots to space. Moreover, it is impossible to consider the perfect example of a spaceship in the International Space Station; hence it has a name “station” because it is fixed to the Earth’s orbit and does not move from this orbit. Definitely some principles will be taken from the experiences which humanity learned during the 21 years of operation of this station in construction of future spaceships. We can apply the term “spacecraft” to those crafts that countries use to deliver astronauts to the International Space Station or in the near future for touristic trips to the Earth’s orbit.
However, if we speak about lunar trips or trips to Mars, here the technology will be closer to the concept of the spaceship. The spaceship runs similarly to a naval vessel because it requires having the Captain and his crew. For future warfare in space, we can indicate that superpowers will need vessels which are similar to aircraft carriers in terms of their functions because these types of vessels are able to undertake autonomous tasks for a long time and are able to conduct political, scientific, and military functions. The First step in the building of a new technological revolution will happen when humanity creates a true spaceship and abandons rockets. For a space revolution, superpowers need reusable low Earth orbital spacecraft, as once we had the Space Shuttle and Buran.
***
This research was a humble attempt to examine space power from different angles in its comparison with air and sea powers. The majority of scientists and theoreticians are keener on supporting those analogies between space power and sea power, being the most relevant for understanding the future of humanity in space. Every technological or social leap in our history was undertaken through extensive reflection of previous experiences. Nothing has come from zero; any new creation has evolved from previous ideas and experiences. This time in the new frontier we are going to use an old matrix of conduct, but how successful it will be is unclear.
I am inclined to finish this research with one striking historical example. In 1630, a group of British puritans known as the Winthrop Fleet arrived in the Massachusetts Bay Colony in New England. These people were looking for a new world and they found it, but this event tremendously changed the history of the world. The world ahead of us is fascinating and unknown, but it seems that humanity is ready to conquer the new frontier.
[1] Trevor Brown, “Space and the Sea: Strategic Considerations for the Commons,” Astropolitics: The International Journal of Space Politics & Policy, 10:3, 2012 p. 246
[2] John Hickman How Plausible is Chinese Annexation of Territory on the Moon?, Astropolitics, 10:1, 2012 p. 86
[3] It is the area around the Earth extending out to just beyond the Moon’s orbit, and including all of the five Lagrangian points that are stable in position in reference to the Earth and Moon as they rotate about each other.
[4] Thomas Cremins, Paul D. “Spudis Viewpoint: The Strategic Context of the Moon Echoes of the Past, Symphony of the Future,” Astropolitics: The International Journal of Space Politics & Policy, 5:1, 2007 p.100
[5] https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/208758
[6] James Clay Moltz, “The Politics of Space Security Strategic Restraint and the Pursuit of National Interests,” Second Edition, Stanford California, 2008 p.19
[7] Howard Kleinberg, “On War in Space,: Astropolitics: The International Journal of Space Politics & Policy 5:1, 2007 p.14
[8] Sachdeva G. S. Space Mines: Dialectics of Legality, Astropolitics: The International Journal of Space Politics & Policy, 7:2,2009 p.136
[9] Armel Kerrest, “Space law and the law of the sea,”in Christian Brunner Alexander Soucek (eds.) “Outer Space in Society, Politics and Law,” SpringerWienNewYork, 2011 pp. 248-253
[10] Andrew Brearley, “Mining the Moon: Owning the Night Sky?,” Astropolitics: The International Journal of Space Politics & Policy, 4:1, 2006 p.59
Autor
Ridvan Bari Urcosta
Senior Analyst at Strategy&Future
Strategy&Future
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