The Theaters of Greco-Turkish War: a geostrategic projection. Part IV

TCG Anadolu (L-400) amphibious assault ship (LHD) of the Turkish Navy during its construction at Sedef Shipyard in Istanbul (source: Wikimedia Commons)

 

An analytical comparison of the military might of Greece and Turkey

The Military Balance 2020 provides the following information regarding the military forces of Turkey and Greece. In 2019, Turkey possessed the biggest army in Europe with 355,200 active military personnel and 378,700 reserves (Army: 258,700; Navy: 55,000; Air: 65,000). Greece possessed 143,850 (sixth in Europe after the UK with 148,450). It is possible to add the Cyprus capabilities of around 15,000 people (with 50,000 reserves). Usually, during the Cold War the armies which were fighting against each other had military equipment and materiel from various Soviet origins or from the West. This time, the situation is completely different – both armies are entirely equipped with NATO standards equipment. This can create a situation of misunderstanding or miscalculation; in which the armies can be embarrassed because they would be able to understand where their own army is and that of the enemy.

 

Source: Global Power: Comparison Result (Turkey and Greece) // https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.asp?form=form&country1=turkey&country2=greece&Submit=COMPARE

 

 

S-400 Triumph (source: Wikimedia Commons)

 

Air-Defense Systems

While previously only Greece and Cyprus held Soviet- and Russian-origin surface-to-air-missile systems which are still in service, now the situation is changing. Greece has long-range: S-300 (SA-10 Grumble); short range: K33 Osa (SA-8 Gecko) 9K331 Tor-M1 (SA-15 Gauntlet). They can relocate them into the Aegean islands which are very close to Turkey and this can definitely create a significant obstacle to Turkey.

Nevertheless, the situation can alter tremendously in Turkish favor owing to the fact that Turkey has purchased the Russian system S-400. It seems that Ankara bought these systems for one particular purpose – to keep its airspace safe from the Greek aircrafts in case of war. Now, Turkey has to put them into the operation as soon as possible and masterfully use these systems. Turkey received two S-400 divisions, more than 120 anti-aircraft missiles, as well as auxiliary equipment, spare parts and tools. The agreement provides for a 20-month warranty service by Russia of the transferred military complex. It is impossible to exclude that during the war the Russian specialists will assist Turkish operators as was the case during the Cold War. In July 2020, Turkey tested these systems.

 

Greek submarine S-120 Papanikolis (214 type) at HDW at Kiel (source: Wikimedia Commons)

 

Navy and Submarines

The role of submarines will be very important in the mid-scale and full-scale war. Therefore, the two sides are actively working in this direction. In the Greek fleet, there are the newest German submarines of project 214 (these are better than the Turkish “209”) and Soviet amphibious air-cushion ships of project 12322. But there are only four of those and others, and this is not enough to turn the situation in their favor. France can deploy four Rubis-class submarines, thereby providing the French-Greek side with a certain superiority underwater. Egypt has a new type 209/1400mod submarine (S43) in its fleet. Actually, the hybrid underwater type war has already started in August between Greek and Turkish submarines, when the Turkish submarine “Type 209” wanted to navigate very close to the Greek mainland to test the Greek reaction, but they were detected.

The Turkish Fleet is formidable and makes Turkey a true stakeholder of the Eastern Mediterranean in the group of riparian states and it is possible to see them projecting power in case of Libya, but two external powers can challenge this status or a combination of middle-level countries like Greece-Egypt-Israel. Turkey tries to build its own original vessels, for example the Ada-class corvettes which specialize in anti-submarine and anti-aircraft tasks or the modernized-by-Turkey Gabya-class guided-missiles frigates (ex—U.S. Navy Oliver Hazard Perry-class). In the near future, Turkey will possess the flagship the TGG Anadolu which can be configured as a light aircraft carrier, but now it is a landing helicopter dock.

Greece’s Navy is based upon the doctrinal principle that the country in every aspect must balance the Turkish Army and its military capabilities. Greece possesses nine Elli-class frigates armed with RGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles and RIM-7M Sea Sparrow surface-to-air missiles. In addition to this, Greece has four German Hydra-class frigates and a different type of gunboats, but what is more important is that the Hellenic Navy has the most precious part, which are the submarines. The Greek Navy currently employs a flotilla of eleven Type 209/1100, Type 209/1200, and Type 214 vessels, all of which were ordered from Germany’s Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW). Cyprus has only patrol boats and is not sufficiently capable to face the Turks on the sea. Israel has a small fleet but with a high level of maneuverability, agility and firepower. Very new German-build Dolphin I and II type submarines belong to Tel Aviv. But a real challenger to Turkey is Egypt, and an old rival for control over the Eastern Mediterranean. Under Sisi, Egypt also procured some powerful warships from France. They consist of two Mistral-class landing helicopter docks (LHD), four Gowind-class corvettes, and a FREMM Aquitaine-class multi-purpose frigate. Egypt also has four former Oliver Hazard Perry-class guided-missile frigates armed with SM-1MR Standard surface-to-air missiles and Harpoon missiles along with two older Knox-class frigates.

 

Air Forces

The two countries own more or less equal numbers of aircraft. Moreover, the types and the market source of the aircraft is more or less the same. For instance, Lockheed Martin Corporation is the main company which serves the Greek and Turkish F-16 Viper jets. The possibility of a big conflict puts the corporation into a very difficult position and actually pushes Turkey to search for alternative sources of weaponry, not only aircraft. From 1989 to 2010, Greece received about 170 F-16s which were then extensively modernized. All HAF F-16 squadrons maintain a full air-to-air capability and undertake a quick reaction alert (QRA) readiness duties to counter potential Turkish airspace violations, despite the fact that some are specialized air-to-ground squadrons. In addition to these aircraft, the 36 Mirage 2000 multirole fighters belong to Greece for primary task air defense and anti-ship operations. Later Greece bought 25 that were more advanced ones, and may have been to match the beyond-visual-range capabilities of Turkey’s F-16s and important conventional strike role.

The Turkish Air Forces are stronger than the Hellenic ones, they possess about 270 F-16s with all possible modernized configurations. The modernization of these aircraft is carried out with the cooperation of Lockheed Martin. Greece and Turkey are still operational in terms of the old F-4 Phantom II which underwent a serious modernization. While Greece is going to get rid of these old jets for the new F-35 in the near future, Turkey has been deprived of the right to participate in the Joint Strike Fighter program because of its purchase of the Russian S-400 and its geopolitical confrontation with the West. The types of aircrafts: Turkey has 245 operational F-16; F-4E – 48; Greece: F-16 – 153; Mirage 200o – 42; F-4E – 33.

The Greeks traditionally claim that their pilots are much better than the Turkish ones. Recently, despite the economic recession Athens decided to undertake immediate measures for the enforcement of its own air forces. They are going to buy a squadron of new 18 RAFALE fighter jets which replace older MIRAGE 2000 fighters. The same proxy war is happening in the Aegean air, where for example there was an incident with six Greek F-16 fighters which were supposedly warded off by Turkish Vipers.

 

Airborne early warning and control (AEW) and Electronic Warfare

Again, the situation is similar because two countries belong to the same military bloc and they are well-aware about the capabilities of the other side. The only thing that matters in such a situation is how skillful the operators are, leadership talents and the numbers of equipment. The two countries are part of NATO’s E-3A Sentry Component. A single E-3A can constantly monitor the airspace within a radius of more than 400 km and can exchange information – via digital data links – with ground-based, sea-based and airborne commanders. By using pulse Doppler radar, an E-3A flying within NATO airspace can distinguish between targets and ground reflections and is therefore able to give early warning of low- or high-flying aircraft operating over the territory of a potential aggressor. To Greece belongs four Embraer EMB-14H and to Turkish Air Forces four Boeing 737 AEW&C which are more advanced than Greek.

 

Drones and Satellites 

Within the last year, Turkey presented itself as a country which belongs to the high league of countries which have perfected the use of drones and UAVs, as an excellent military tool for achieving political and military goals. For the limited-war, drones and UAVs are going to be a perfect instrument in the process of fighting against the Greek Army in the mainland islands close to Turkey.

Turkey would need to use its aircrafts for local operations, instead it would prefer to use them in order to counter Greek Air Forces with the operational task of blocking the islands from Greece, but simultaneously Turkish drones would conduct online fights against Greek Army formations in the islands. Greece until now possesses some numbers of Heron UAVs which only serve for reconnaissance. This is impossible to say about Turkey, as Ankara in recent months accelerated the process of creating a group of attack drones specifically designed for operations in naval theaters of war.

 

Morale, Readiness and Experience

It should be noted that after the failed coup in 2016, the regime conducted an attack on the high-level military personnel which affected the most experienced and educated part of the Turkish Army, but at the same time it opened a path to Recep Erdogan to make the army an instrument of the big governmental and clientelist regime. The army is now loyal to Erdogan. After the coup in 2016, the Turkish Army had some time to learn contemporary warfare in Syria and Libya. Compared with the Greek Army, the Turkish one is already significantly mobilized and ready for combat, due to its constant engagement in military operations in Syria, Iraq and Libya. Particularly, it is important to indicate the recent experience of the Turkish Army against the regular army of Syria. This was one of the most valuable experiences which any army in the world would like to achieve. Regarding the moral readiness to fight, Greek and Turkish Armies live on the old narratives of homeland and if they are going to fight, all the old historical grievances will immediately appear in the national memories of the two nations.

 

Autor

Ridvan Bari Urcosta

Senior Analyst at Strategy&Future

 

Komentarze (0)

Trwa ładowanie...

Załaduj więcej komentarzy