Strategy&Future

The US is planning to “fundamentally, not only reevaluate, but take actions that will start to undermine the long term relationship” with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), according to remarks by Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska on 11 April 2020. Senator Kevin Cramer of North Dakota said that the actions of Saudi Arabia – increasing oil supply during a time of negligible demand – “were inexcusable and won’t be forgotten.”

Brothers Karamazov as a geopolitical novel

Perhaps it’s to do with owning and operating the biggest airplane in the world; perhaps it’s to do with the self-deprecating actor-turned-President and his warm-and-fuzzy New Year’s Eve address; perhaps it’s to do with the #KyivNotKiev campaign. “Nation branding” is an important strategic challenge for all the countries of the Baltic-Black Sea Intermarium, including Poland, but in Ukraine’s case there is an added urgency.

To really comprehend the vastness of the Eurasian steppe and the ways of the societies that have long inhabited it, we need to think in terms of the cultural importance of horsemanship and particularly to a polo-like game played throughout the steppe and beyond in which horse-mounted players attempt to drop a beheaded goat’s carcass into the opposing team’s scoring circle or goal. Retired champion jockey-turned-adventurer Richard Dunwoody calls it a “mad, mad sport … like rugby on horseback.”

Aby naprawdę zrozumieć ogrom stepu euroazjatyckiego i sposób życia społeczeństw, które od dawna go zamieszkują, musimy myśleć w kategoriach kulturowego znaczenia jeździectwa, zwłaszcza specyficznej gry trochę jak w polo, rozgrywanej na całym stepie i poza nim. W grze tej – buzkaszi – jeźdźcy próbują wrzucić tuszę kozła, pozbawioną głowy, do koła lub bramki przeciwnika. Emerytowany dżokej, poszukiwacz przygód Richard Dunwoody nazywa to „szalonym sportem… jak rugby na koniu”.

“I believe that what [the Russians] want to do is maintain situations of strategic geographic instability on their flanks, to their benefit … keeping Moldova destabilised, keeping tensions on the border, pretty much will help forestall any joining of NATO. They just do not want NATO that close to them.”

Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy rod and thy staff they comfort me. – Psalm 23, Line 4

Typically I find that those who like to view the world through a prism of the unevenness of geography have very little time for chess, with its flat board and what game theorists and economists might call its “perfect information”. However I wouldn’t be the first person to write about this subject. Former RAND analyst John Arquilla’s short-but-informative essay for Foreign Policy magazine “How Chess Explains the World (And predicts the rise and fall of nations)” was published in 2013 and I’d like to develop some of his ideas here further.

A stay-at-home parent’s attempt to understand the world in 2020

He can perhaps be regarded, alongside Mackinder (1861-1947) and Spykman (1893-1943), as one of the three founding fathers of geopolitics, but Alfred T. Mahan (1840-1914) – remembered mainly as a brilliant proponent and pioneer of modern naval strategy – also drew upon a deep understanding of world history to make some eerily accurate guesses at what the future might hold. This feels like a good time to look back on some of the predictions he made.

Obok Mackindera (1861–1947) i Spykmana (1893–1943) uważany za jednego z trzech ojców geopolityki. Jednakże Alfred T. Mahan (1840–1914) został zapamiętany przede wszystkim jako pionier i krzewiciel nowoczesnej strategii morskiej. Głębokie zrozumienie historii świata umiał wykorzystać w celu jak najdokładniejszego prognozowania tego, co przyniesie przyszłość.

In this S&F podcast Thomas Riley sits down for a chat with Radek Pyffel, a former advisor for AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) and a current plenipotentiary of the Board for Asian markets at Poland’s cargo railway operator PKP Cargo.