Strategy&Future

Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan begins a new era of confrontation between the US and China, and with it, marks the beginning of an already open conflict over Eurasia, this unique place where world history takes place and world wars are fought. It begins an era of war slightly different than the previous world wars, because it is scalable. Each of the subsequent system wars was obviously different from the previous one, so there is no surprise here. This time, in a scalable clash, each side will try to force its interests through various domains of contemporary dependencies in a densely globalised world that will be violently split open before our eyes.

The war in Ukraine is escalating from one stage of the escalation ladder into another, but much higher than the previous, and no end to the war is feasible on the horizon. Ukraine is a negligible front in the grand game of grand players, but the aftermaths of the Russo-Ukrainian War will have paramount importance to world history.

Usually, when Russian military strategists or statesmen speak about military theories or doctrine, they concern with the global or regional character rather than explaining the theory of the war at the tactical level. In the recent past, this sometimes created the impression that they were preparing for a short, small war or a big nuclear war and almost nothing about the macro-level traditional European war we are witnessing in Ukraine.

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Hugh White about global implications of war and how it is viewed in Australia.

The war in Ukraine unleashed by Russia represents the most serious challenge that has been faced by the United States since the end of the Cold War, a clear challenge to both the international order and the rules of the road established by Washington during the unipolar moment. In fact, the most important postulate that was part of the list of demands made by Russia against the collective West in December 2021 was the recognition of Russia’s right to have its own sphere of influence – and thus accepting its imperial status.

Russia has been forced to cooperate closely with UK and US space companies, more than ever, in achieving their common goal, which is to continue their global dominance in the Earth’s orbit. Maybe, this will spur British and American investors to create one paramount gigantic company that will unite the investors in Washington and London.

ussia is currently using the old strategy of “Artillery is the God of War”. It is often possible to see how Russian experts are discussing the importance of artillery.

The war in Ukraine is study time for military strategists throughout the world, who have been closely observing, learning and examining every move made on both sides of the battlefield. However, the most interesting for all specialists is the integration of the new technologies and capabilities to the principles of the traditional kinetic warfare like satellites, drones, communications, etc.

The situation in the Donbas is not desperate for the Ukrainian Armed Forces but it is very difficult. From one side, logic suggests that they would be better to withdraw to a more secure position and win the time for regrouping and building effective zones of resistance in Central Ukraine. On the other hand, Kyiv is the victim of its own political rhetoric because it is constantly delivering to the public the idea that Ukraine is going to win and the Russian Forces are suffering heavy losses. The only dramatic losses which Russia had were during the “March to Kyiv”. Despite this, Russia recognises that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are a serious threat and enemy.

The Russo-Ukrainian War is historical in many senses but in future, it will likely be known as the war that triggered the space race in the 21st century, just as the war in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 spurred and revealed to the world the drone warfare revolution. More precisely, the Russo-Ukrainian War has revealed to the world new principles of space warfare and has triggered more than even a global space race. A century ago, the great powers struggled for control of choke points and domination in the sea, air and land domains because all-domain superiority was the recipe for success. Today, the war in Ukraine shows that without space superiority, there is no way to think about global domination. It is the genuine beginning of the Astropolitics era in human history.

Albert Świdziński and Ridvan Bari Urcosta talk to Samuel Bendett (adviser with CNA Strategy, Policy, Plans and Programs Center (SP3), a member of the Russia Studies Program, an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) on the role of drones vs tanks in the Russo-Ukranian War.

Just as one hundred years ago, the war did not bring about the establishment of a federation, despite the Kyiv expedition, Ukrainian attempts supported by Poland, great victories of the Polish soldiers near Warsaw and on the Niemen River. So now, without a clear break-up of Russian troops and the taking of territories, the war will not eliminate Russia and will not give Ukraine proper breathing space to live. The same applies to us too, because a game for the continental consolidation of France and Germany will soon appear. It could also be different with the Americans if a war with China broke out.