Strategy&Future

How would the situation in Europe and in the world have developed if Kyiv had been captured by the Russians in the first days of the war? I am of the opinion that despite all the risks associated with posing such counterfactual questions, it is worth asking them. Firstly, because I have the impression that in Poland we are not fully aware of how close we were to a catastrophe in the first days of the war in Ukraine. Secondly, because the war in Ukraine continues, its end result is by no means known and the dangers that Poland would face in the event of a quick victory for Russia in February are still hanging over us.

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Nicholas Gvosdev (a professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College, editor of “Orbis” at Foreign Policy Research Institute and co-host of the “Doorstep” podcast at Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs) on Russia and the future of Eurasia.

To understand the current course of the war in Ukraine, we must go to the Marxist theory of war, which serves as the foundation for Russian military doctrine. The Marxist school of the war teaches that war is a continuation of politics, a premise taken from Clausewitz.

Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan begins a new era of confrontation between the US and China, and with it, marks the beginning of an already open conflict over Eurasia, this unique place where world history takes place and world wars are fought. It begins an era of war slightly different than the previous world wars, because it is scalable. Each of the subsequent system wars was obviously different from the previous one, so there is no surprise here. This time, in a scalable clash, each side will try to force its interests through various domains of contemporary dependencies in a densely globalised world that will be violently split open before our eyes.

The war in Ukraine is escalating from one stage of the escalation ladder into another, but much higher than the previous, and no end to the war is feasible on the horizon. Ukraine is a negligible front in the grand game of grand players, but the aftermaths of the Russo-Ukrainian War will have paramount importance to world history.

Usually, when Russian military strategists or statesmen speak about military theories or doctrine, they concern with the global or regional character rather than explaining the theory of the war at the tactical level. In the recent past, this sometimes created the impression that they were preparing for a short, small war or a big nuclear war and almost nothing about the macro-level traditional European war we are witnessing in Ukraine.

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Hugh White about global implications of war and how it is viewed in Australia.

The war in Ukraine unleashed by Russia represents the most serious challenge that has been faced by the United States since the end of the Cold War, a clear challenge to both the international order and the rules of the road established by Washington during the unipolar moment. In fact, the most important postulate that was part of the list of demands made by Russia against the collective West in December 2021 was the recognition of Russia’s right to have its own sphere of influence – and thus accepting its imperial status.

Russia has been forced to cooperate closely with UK and US space companies, more than ever, in achieving their common goal, which is to continue their global dominance in the Earth’s orbit. Maybe, this will spur British and American investors to create one paramount gigantic company that will unite the investors in Washington and London.

ussia is currently using the old strategy of “Artillery is the God of War”. It is often possible to see how Russian experts are discussing the importance of artillery.

The war in Ukraine is study time for military strategists throughout the world, who have been closely observing, learning and examining every move made on both sides of the battlefield. However, the most interesting for all specialists is the integration of the new technologies and capabilities to the principles of the traditional kinetic warfare like satellites, drones, communications, etc.

The situation in the Donbas is not desperate for the Ukrainian Armed Forces but it is very difficult. From one side, logic suggests that they would be better to withdraw to a more secure position and win the time for regrouping and building effective zones of resistance in Central Ukraine. On the other hand, Kyiv is the victim of its own political rhetoric because it is constantly delivering to the public the idea that Ukraine is going to win and the Russian Forces are suffering heavy losses. The only dramatic losses which Russia had were during the “March to Kyiv”. Despite this, Russia recognises that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are a serious threat and enemy.