(wikimedia.org)
A challenging week for Ukraine…
It can be observed that, in general, Kharkiv during the last several months has been demonstrating more markedly pro-Russian tendencies; for example, the name of the Marshal of the Soviet Union Georgy Zhukov was restored to one of its streets. Nevertheless, Zelensky stated this week that the issue of the return of Crimea is an integral part of the national idea of Ukraine.
Recently one of the most experienced politicians of Ukraine, Yulia Tymoshenko, stressed that Ukraine as a country is falling into the abyss. Additionally, the influential Russian politician Vladislav Surkov, known as “a curator of Ukraine” in the Kremlin, in his recent interview posed questions whether the future of Ukraine as a state might be over. He did not rule out the appearance on the European political map several separate post-Ukrainian states. Surkov stated that the only chance to return Ukraine to Russia is through “coercive integration.” [Lukashenka has spoken of just such an option being threatened by Russia, the “forced integration” of Belarus.]
British newspaper the Guardian has reported that British and American leaders are planning to visit Ukraine on 8th May, and the next day to go to Moscow to 9th Victory Parade on the Red Square. The Ukrainian MFA has not yet confirmed these reports, but the logic of European leaders is clear – they want to appease Ukrainians before going to Moscow.
Belorussian battle for energy independence…
It is clear now that Vladimir Putin under pressure from Lukashenka is ready to make some serious compromises over the oil issue. The only path of energy and economic stability of the country is reaching energy independence by the diversification of gas and oil supplies. At the same time, Russia is diversifying its own supplies to Belarus. According to Dmitry Peskov, the idea regarding the conditions for the supply of Russian oil to Belarus will continue at the intergovernmental level with the participation of Russian oil companies. It was reported that this year the number of Russian oil companies which deliver oil to Belarus, is going to be increased. In addition to the companies of the Safmar group of Mikhail Gutseriev, oil in the pipeline system in March will be delivered by five more Russian companies that have not previously been engaged in oil supplies to Belarus.
Belneftekhim also concluded a deal with the Azerbaijani company SOCAR for the supply of two oil tankers with a total volume of 160 thousand tons via the Odessa-Brody pipeline in March. In January-February, oil was supplied to Belarus only by Russian companies belonging to Mikhail Gutseriev. They planned to supply 950 thousand tons of oil in the first quarter. Belarus also purchased 86 thousand tons of Norwegian oil.
So, the Belarusian oil refineries lasted two months of trading without supplies of the “Big Five” oil – the five largest oil companies that traditionally supplied oil to Belarus. In 2019, Rosneft delivered 8.8 million tons of oil to Belarus (including Bashneft), Lukoil – 2.8 million tons, Surgutneftegas – 2.6 million tons, Gazpromneft – 1.64 million tons, Tatneft 1.15 million tons, all independent oil companies supplied less than 1 million tons.
Poland is making concrete moves
The decision to prepare the pipeline for transportation of oil in the eastern direction was announced on February 27 by the Polish operator “Druzhba”. According to Polish company PERN, oil is now being transported through the Eastern part of the Druzhba pipeline only in the western direction – from the base in Adamowo to the base in Płock. The Polish operator decided that the pipeline should be able to pump oil in the opposite direction – from Płock to Adamowo.
PERN said that the purpose of reverse deliveries was to “increase the flexibility of the company’s logistics network and improve Poland’s energy security.” The Polish company has already started the search for a contractor for this project. Belneftekhim welcomed PERN’s decision to launch Druzhba in reverse. The general director of the Belneftekhim has stressed that Belarus is opening “another door to the world of alternative sources of oil supplies”.
Autor
Ridvan Bari Urcosta
Senior Analyst at Strategy&Future
Strategy&Future
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