The presidential election of Belarus, 2020 – agit-prop (wikimedia.org)
Belarus
The main features of this week are that people started to respond to violence by violence; an oppositional coalition was created; and that Lukashenka allegedly was hospitalized, but it wasn’t true.
On July 14, the disproportionately harsh actions of police officers to detain civilians just for the fact that they were on the streets provoked a response from people, “including, unfortunately, the use of force against representatives of the security forces,” which led to the initiation of criminal cases. During a rally on July 14, security forces detained more than 250 people. Fourteen of them are journalists from various independent publications in Minsk (10 people), Gomel (3), Brest (1). The head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Yuri Karaev had already said that journalists were taking people to the streets and controlling them. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, six policemen from the OMON of the Minsk City Executive Committee were injured, four of them were hospitalized. The Ministry in the statement straightforwardly stated that the rallies had been organized by outsiders, that “…provocateurs from Warsaw and Kyiv led a small but aggressive crowd into the streets of the Belarusian capital.”
Actions of the Regime:
Belarus and the U.S.
US Charge d’Affaires Jennifer Moore completes her work in Belarus. Before the arrival of the US Ambassador to Belarus, Jeff Jook will take her position, Moore said in her farewell video. On July 17, Moore met with Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei on the occasion of the completion of her diplomatic mission. For 12 years, the American diplomatic mission has been working in a reduced composition. The official authorities of Belarus expelled the US Ambassador in 2008 after Washington imposed sanctions on Minsk for human rights violations, and the Belarusian side accused the United States of interfering in the 2006 elections.
On July 20 Lukashenka appointed a new Ambassador to the United States, former Deputy Foreign Minister Oleg Kravchenko, who previously worked for 7 years at the Belarusian embassy in the United States. As a deputy minister, he was involved in strengthening relations with America, so successfully that the Russian edition Lenta.ru claimed that it was Kravchenko’s idea to conduct NATO exercises in Belarus and to place American experts on Internet control in the country. These hypotheses were not confirmed, but Moore asked Lukashenka to send a new Ambassador to the United States as soon as possible. Lukashenka in his parting words stated to the new Ambassador that, “We will need support and help from the United States of America, especially during this period in the financial sphere in connection with the coronavirus. We have good prospects there.”
Belarus and the European Union
The European Union is very actively observing the situation in Belarus. Certain steps are being taken: the European Parliament is preparing a special report on the situation in Belarus, which will include certain recommendations. Last week, a discussion on the Belarusian events took place during the plenary session. More and more voices are being heard in the EP regarding the change in EU policy towards Belarus; it should be more decisive. The Belarusian side has spent the thaw in bilateral relations that we have seen in recent years. The last months, weeks and days have shown that the Lukashenka regime does not respect human rights and the principles of democracy. Most likely, in the near future, EU policy towards Belarus will change, a new strategy will appear. The EP is already working on this, but it completely contradicts the American vision. Washington made serious progress in the direction of improving the relations with Lukashenka and they definitely do have some agreements to show for it. The policy of Brussels will, therefore, be considered undesirable, at least by the Trump Administration. This is the biggest dilemma for the EU – to go as it once did and introduce sanctions against the regime (personal sanctions) and eventually the country or to try to find a solution. The EU is divided over this issue.
Polish European MP Robert Biedron stated that the EU would be forced to change its approach to Belarus. However, he said, MEPs believe that it is the Lukashenka regime that should pay for the violation of human rights, and not the ordinary citizens of Belarus. It’s thought that the EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Josep Borrell will soon take an even more critical position, including sanctions against persons associated with the Lukashenka regime. Biedron also advocates that the EU will undertake support for the democratic opposition in Belarus and civil society. Actually a couple of days ago, Josep Borrell published an official letter to Belarus, in which he says that the EU expects from Belarus an immediate official invitation from the OSCE/ODIHR to observe the upcoming presidential elections because without official invitation it is impossible to take a part in the observation mission. Interestingly, Belarus responded aggressively to this letter. In the response, it was stated that although Belarus is not a country of ideal democracy, it is capable of determining what (and how) the leadership of Belarus should do without prompting from “external managers”.
The EU is thinking about how to reactivate its aid programs, which were carried out after the 2010 elections, when many Belarusians were imprisoned. Then there was a program to support their families. Such a program must be restored.
The Opposition Strategy
Three women from the opposing camps of the three main candidates, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, Valeria Tsepkalo and Victor Babariko, gathered and decided to launch a joint strategy against Lukashenka and his regime and unite around Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Their election headquarters are united on the basis of 5 basic principles:
It should be noted that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya is representing his husband who is in prison. Tikhanovskaya already started her electoral campaign and will try to reach as many people in the country as possible. She is now undermining Lukashenka’s regime by the use of official TV and Radio stations. This is a really great opportunity for the opposition to reveal all the paradoxes of the regime and openly criticize Lukashenka. It was a serious miscalculation by Lukashenka when he allowed even the participation of a “vague” candidate from the opposition, compared with Babaryko and Tsypkalo. It is still early to speak about the unification of all opposition forces against Lukashenka, but it is an unprecedented move from the diverse opposition in the country. Still, the question of the demonstrations is unclear and this “Women Triumvirate” has not solved this problem because Tikhanovskaya cannot openly support the anti-governmental protests and at the same time be an official candidate for the presidency.
Russia and Belarus
On July 14 the Prime Ministers of Belarus and Russia, Roman Golovchenko and Mikhail Mishustin, signed three documents in the field of energy in Moscow. Two documents out of the three concern changes in the intergovernmental agreement on the construction of the nuclear power plant. The third document regulates the terms of delivery of Russian oil to Belarus. These are two protocols to an intergovernmental agreement on the construction of the Belarusian nuclear power plant and a separate agreement regulating conditions for the supply of energy resources, in particular oil, to Belarus. Roman Golovchenko stressed that all the signed documents correspond to the interests of Belarus. “Moreover, both for the construction of the nuclear power plant and for the supply of energy carriers, they are very beneficial for our country. I can say that only through the construction of the nuclear power plant will Belarus receive savings that amount to hundreds of millions of dollars.” It is possible to see that Russia is trying to play its own role and attempting to bring Belarus closer and keep the regime closer to the Kremlin. Strikingly, the nuclear power plant must be launched just a couple of days before the elections and it will be a symbolic element of Russian presence in the country. The essence of the oil supply agreement is still unknown.
On July 17 Mishustin already was in Minsk and met with Lukashenka who participated in a meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council in Minsk. Lukashenka again flirted with Moscow when he stated that Mishustin was in his house, that Belarus was not going anywhere and the peoples of Russia and Belarus were deeply close. He noted that he insists that all agreements between the countries should be implemented, but “exclusively on an equal basis.” Moreover, he added that “Well, times have changed. Today it is impossible, as in the Middle Ages, to capture any country and subjugate it for 100-150 years. The situation is different. Yes and no need. And Russia has enough of its own lands, if we talk about Russia. But if someone thinks outside our country, in turn, about such things and concepts, I think his life is short-lived. We will talk with you in private, exchange some opinions and questions. I will tell you about what is happening with us now during this electoral period. Very strange things are happening. Sometimes I start thinking for a long time, based on my experience, where it comes from. But, everything turns out. Therefore, I will tell you about this later”. Lukashenka is making tremendous efforts to survive and he feels that things are changing and his destiny is unclear, but he will fight. Before the elections Lukashenka hopes once again to meet with Putin. In turn, Mishustin replied that he hopes that this time the two states will make serious efforts for real integration inside the Union State and he added (what actually Lukashenka wants to hear) that it should be without undermining the sovereignty of member-states.
The deputy of the Russian MFA Andrey Rudenko stated recently that, “Unlike foreign players, Russia is not interested in any ‘Maidans’ or in any Kiev scenarios [in Belarus]. What happened in Ukraine became such an inoculation for many states, including for the fraternal, closest to us country – Belarus.”
Ukraine
“Sea Breeze 2020”
The “Sea Breeze 2020” international exercises have started in the Black Sea. This year, due to the coronavirus pandemic, the “Sea Breeze 2020” exercises will be limited to the maritime phase with the involvement of aviation. According to the National Naval Command, one of the Sea Breeze training tools that should be used as effectively as possible is the transition of the Ukrainian Navy to NATO standards. It is expected that in the process of training at sea, the ships of the participating countries will carry out joint tactical maneuvers, train in the organization of communications, mine action, the transfer of cargo on the move. Crews of ships and boats will work out issues of interaction with tactical and naval aviation, will conduct a series of exercises on-air, anti-ship and boat defense at the sea crossing, and will work on the tasks of interception and inspection of offending vessels. In addition, they will perform tasks to strengthen the protection and defense of important marine infrastructure and the maritime complex. It is noted that an important test for military sailors will be the implementation of combat exercises of artillery fire at sea and air targets, as well as conducting exercises to fight for survival and rescue the crew of a ship in distress at sea. The international exercise will last seven days. The exercise is scheduled to involve the Porter missile destroyer and the US Navy’s P-8 Poseidon anti-submarine patrol aircraft.
U.S. and Ukraine: Military Cooperation
The United States has fully approved the sale of up to 16 Mark VI patrol boats and related equipment to Ukraine. It is reported that six boats are already being prepared for Ukraine as part of US security assistance under the relevant programs. Ukraine will be able to buy the rest from the United States at the expense of the defense budget. It is noted that the boats will be equipped with modern equipment, in particular, MSI Seahawk A2 and MK 44 cannon systems, that the Ukrainian Navy has formed a division in the Sea of Azov, it is expected that the combat and numerical composition of the division will increase by introducing new combat units.
Ukrainian Naval Exercises
The Navy conducted interdepartmental and interspecific training to respond to maritime crises. Training of naval-boat tactical groups was carried out in the Black Sea in cooperation with units of the Marines, the Air Force and the State Border Guard Service. The main tactical actions took place on Snake Island, where Special Forces of the Southern Regional Administration also arrived for reinforcements by aircraft and navy. The purpose of the training was to test the forces involved in strengthening the protection and defense of important maritime sites. According to the training legend, the movement of unidentified surface objects in Ukrainian territorial waters was detected. In order to prevent the illegal seizure of elements of Ukraine’s economic infrastructure in the Black Sea, the military was tasked with reconnaissance, deployment of forces and means, landing, strengthening security and repelling a conventional enemy attack. It should be noted that the training took place suddenly, without warnings, which made it possible to actually assess the training of personnel for any situations related to defense. This event is related to military exercises in Russia and in general after losing control of Crimea and the Sea of Azov, the last remnant of Ukrainian sea possessions left in the western part of the Black Sea around Odessa and Snake Island have strategic importance to the country.
Ukraine is increasing its military presence near Crimea
The presence of troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Navy in the Kherson region will increase, according to the head of the Kherson regional state administration Yuri Gusev. He said that, “I am not ready to name the numbers, because this is very sensitive information, but the presence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson region will increase.” A few weeks ago there was a field meeting of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, where this issue was discussed. According to him, the participants of the field meeting visited the administrative borders bordering the areas of the region temporarily occupied by Crimea and discussed, in particular, a set of measures needed to strengthen the position in the south of Ukraine. Gusev said that the region expects both the strengthening of existing military units stationed in the Kherson region, and the deployment of new units – and the ground forces, and the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces. Separately, he focused on strengthening territorial defense. Last year, the Ukrainian and Estonian Defense Ministers signed a document on the implementation of a pilot project of territorial defense of the Kherson region following the example of the Estonian Kaitseliit (volunteer paramilitaries in Estonia). And now the two sides are actively working to conduct training in the fall of this year with the involvement of the reserve and plan a set of measures to strengthen the guerilla defense of the Kherson region.
Ukraine and China: moving to a strategic partnership
Whilst the West is busy with internal events, China is approaching Ukraine. On July 5, in the presence of the Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Vladislav Krikliy and the Chinese Ambassador to Ukraine Fan Xianzhong, the State Enterprise “Ukrvodshlyakh” and China Railway 14th Bureau Group (CRCC14), represented by executive director Li Junqiang, signed a Memorandum of Understanding and Cooperation. It is noted that the parties will cooperate in developing the infrastructure of inland waterways for the development of trade between Ukraine and the People’s Republic of China, with the aim of exchanging experience.
In accordance with the Memorandum, the Ukrainian-Chinese cooperation will cover the following areas: assistance to the development of inland waterways; formation of mutually beneficial logistics solutions for the implementation of goods exchange between Ukraine and the PRC; identification of technical barriers and other obstacles associated with the implementation of transportation between Ukraine and the PRC; attracting investments, technologies and best practices for the implementation of infrastructure projects on inland waterways in Ukraine; promoting the creation of modern innovation infrastructure; as well as identifying possible areas for further cooperation in the field of public-private partnership. However, Ukraine is still waiting from China for completion of the following projects: construction of the M-22 road on the bypass section of Kremenchuk with a bridge over the river Dnieper, the greater ring road around Kyiv and the M-14 road Odesa-Mykolaiv-Kherson.
Strategy&Future
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