Strategy&Future

The Great Game of the XXI century is not only about Afghanistan anymore. This time, it is about a struggle by the Land Powers to bite into the World Ocean and to undermine the West’s monopoly over it and the Freedom of Navigation concept. The task of the West is to keep them inside their landmasses. It is certain now that whoever wins this episode of history, will define history until the next leap of Humanity into the new Space domain. The Black Sea (with the Eastern Mediterranean) and the South China Sea are only small episodes of the global rivalry; yet, they are the epicentres of this rivalry in Eurasia and the outcome will have global repercussions.

The Southern Caucasus is one of the most dangerous hotspots on the Eurasian continent. For centuries, the region has attracted regional and global players. Its small nations exist constantly under the pressure of three crucial Eurasian powers: Russia, Turkey and Iran. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the presence of the European Union and the United States was visible in the region.

Many know of Andrei Sakharov (1921-1989) as a Soviet dissident, a Nobel laureate, an activist for disarmament, peace, and human rights. Of course he was also a nuclear physicist and the designer of the first two-stage hydrogen bomb, first tested on 22 November 1955 with a nominal yield of approximately 3 megatons. However, almost unknown in the West are his philosophical visions on humanity, history, the Cold War, and the future of humanity. His visions, concepts and theories he presented in 1968 in the short book, “Thoughts on progress, peaceful coexistence and intellectual freedom” and in some other shorter works.

(Fot. Wikimedia Commons)

Tajwan i Krym mają wiele interesujących podobieństw, zarówno w kwestii znaczenia geopolitycznego oraz geostrategicznego dla Chin i Rosji, jak roli w historyczno-kulturowych narracjach tych krajów. Wygląda na to, że przywódcy obu państw są oddani idei „odzyskiwania ziem utraconych”.

Taiwan and Crimea have many interesting similarities both in terms of their geopolitical and geostrategic importance and in terms of historic and cultural narratives for China and Russia. It seems that the leaders of both countries are committed to the idea of “collecting lost lands.”

In the near future nobody is going to establish international rules for the different types of UAVs. The proliferation of drone technologies and their decreasing prices on the global market are going to continue.

Drone Guerilla Warfare in the Middle East: Part 4 of 5

“It seems Israel will never leave Gaza. It is always here, even if its soldiers are not visible, patrolling the streets as they did not so long ago. The occupation is now truly twenty-first century—the best drone technology in the world is being deployed up there, just to keep us occupied. Our lives are dictated by the rhythm of war and truce, war and truce; it’s like a dance, you have to follow it. War decides for us when we go to bed and when we get out of bed. It teaches us to be fully occupied with every detail of daily life.”

Israel has responded to the activities of the militants in Lebanon and Palestine by developing a genuinely sophisticated system of UCAVs which encompass strategic, medium-size and tactical drones. In the Gaza sector, Israel is searching for a way to create the right drone for conducting war or tactical special operations in an urban area with minimisation of civilian casualties. The best example so far is the Ninox family of drones, which is produced by the Israeli-American company “Spear”.

It has become popular to refer to Turkey as the main drone “superpower” in the region, but it would be a grave mistake to think that in the Middle East only Israel and Turkey have developed sophisticated UAV industries.

“For example, the first thing many people often ask is: ‘What weapon should I use in my operation?’ But the answer to this question – and it’s an important question – is not as difficult as it may seem. The Mujahid Brother Nidal Hasan used firearms in his assault on Fort Hood, but the fact is, today’s Mujahid is no longer limited to bullets and bombs when it comes to his choice of a weapon. As the blessed operations of September 11th showed, a little imagination and planning and a minimal budget can turn almost anything into a deadly, effective and convenient weapon which can take the enemy by surprise and deprive him of sleep for years on end.” Adam Yahiye Gadahn, American spokesperson of al-Qaeda, 2010