Strategy&Future

Jacek Bartosiak and Albert Świdziński talk to Jacob Shapiro on the unfolding global geopolitical turmoil and disruptions of supply chains.

The battlefield for superiority has always been value chains and the resulting global division of labour. They determine new technology and investment cycles that give money and power to those who enter the market first or in a better structural position.

For centuries, the World Ocean has successfully held back continental powers and dictated the rules on which the world trading system should operate. It therefore held the keys to the prosperity and future of all mankind. The people responsible for the politics of the World Ocean powers made sure that this was never going to change.

The Great Game of the XXI century is not only about Afghanistan anymore. This time, it is about a struggle by the Land Powers to bite into the World Ocean and to undermine the West’s monopoly over it and the Freedom of Navigation concept. The task of the West is to keep them inside their landmasses. It is certain now that whoever wins this episode of history, will define history until the next leap of Humanity into the new Space domain. The Black Sea (with the Eastern Mediterranean) and the South China Sea are only small episodes of the global rivalry; yet, they are the epicentres of this rivalry in Eurasia and the outcome will have global repercussions.

The Southern Caucasus is one of the most dangerous hotspots on the Eurasian continent. For centuries, the region has attracted regional and global players. Its small nations exist constantly under the pressure of three crucial Eurasian powers: Russia, Turkey and Iran. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the presence of the European Union and the United States was visible in the region.

The Euromaidan protests in Kyiv started on 21st November 2013 after President Viktor Yanukovich announced Ukraine’s suspension of an association agreement with the EU, meaning the East European country would instead seek closer ties with Moscow. This was a post-colour revolution.

Some years are more memorable than others: the terror attacks of 2001, the Iraq invasion of 2003, Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the birth of the smartphone era in 2007, the financial crisis of 2008, the ‘Arab Spring’ in 2011, the annexation of Crimea and the war in the Donbas in 2014. And although we might not have thought so at first, 2016 would turn out to be another “one of those years”!

The Last 21 Years: (2)012

On 4th January 2010, the Burj Khalifa opened in Dubai. At 828 metres, it was the world’s tallest building. In fact, all of the world’s seven-tallest buildings were now located in Asia: Taipei 101 (508 metres, 2004); World Financial Center, Shanghai (492 metres, 2008); International Commerce Centre, Hong Kong (484 metres, 2010); Petronas Towers 1 and 2, Kuala Lumpur (452 metres, 1998); and Zifeng Tower, Nanjing (450 metres, 2010). “We are entering a completely new era of world history,” said Kishore Mahbubani at a lecture at the St. Gallen Symposium. “You’re seeing the end of what I call Western domination of world history but I hasten to add that the end of Western domination of world history is not the end of the West.

Jacek Bartosiak of Strategy&Future, Warsaw and Velina Tchakarova of AIES, Vienna debate the great power competition in Eurasia, connectivity supply chains, EU-China deal and the future of Europe.