Strategy&Future

March 2021

March 2021

In 2013 Russia’s Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov jointly announced the creation of a Special Operations Forces. Already back in 2008, during the tenure of Shoygu’s predecessor Anatoliy Serdyukov, it had been decided to establish an SOF under the Special Operations Forces Command of the General Staff with its HQ on the outskirts of Moscow.

War Vs Peace Missile Report #61

It is now 100 years since the signing of the peace treaty in Riga, which ended Poland’s war in the east with Soviet Russia and established relations in our part of the world for the following 20 years. Then Tehran, Yalta, Potsdam and the end of World War II, closed the chapter of the Jagiellonian foreign policy of Poland. Or so it would seem.

Ridvan Bari Urcosta and Nicholas Myers (Strategy&Future, Warsaw) talk to Michael Kofman (a Senior Research Scientist at CNA, a Fellow at the Kennan Institute, Wilson International Center and a Senior Editor at “War on the Rocks”) on the Russian military thinking, drones, Suwalki and the possibility of war in the Baltic region.

From the very beginning of S&F’s existence, we wanted to implement the idea of dealing with Russian pressure against the interests of the Polish Republic. Thus, responding to the needs of the present, increasingly troubled times, in line with what Jerzy Giedroyć, who was speaking from a pedestal in Poland wrote in his “Message”. Film by Hubert Walas.

Ridvan Bari Urcosta and Marek Budzisz of Warsaw based Strategy&Future talk to Sergei Guriev, Professor of economics at the Instituts d’études politiques in Paris (Sciences Po), about the future of Russian economy, on Alexei Navalny and Sputnik V.

Egypt in the Russian agenda plays the most important role for the Middle East and Africa, and the cooperation seems to be increasing in 2021. During the Cold War, Egypt was the most precious diamond in the Middle East for Moscow. It was lost after the death of Nasser and the Yom Kippur War in 1973 and finally in 1978 when the Camp David Accords were signed. Since then, Moscow has had to be satisfied in the company of the marginal regimes in Syria and Libya. Only in recent decades has the situation significantly changed due to the geopolitical events in 2011, the Arab Spring, and its titanic implications to the region.

Michael J. Mazarr, analysing conflicts in the “grey zone” in 2015, as part of a project initiated by the Strategic Studies Institute focusing on the changing nature of contemporary conflicts, attempted to formulate seven hypotheses about the future. It is worth recalling them now.

Poland in Great Power Competition – Jacek Bartosiak, Nicholas Myers and Zbigniew Pisarski debate the video presentation describing the interactions Poland had with US, China and Russia in 2019-2020.

“The numbers tell us this was a debate between change and experience, and change won.” CNN’s Bill Schneider was referring to the Iowa Democratic Primary on 3rd January 2008 won by Barack Obama (38%), followed by John Edwards 30% and Hillary Clinton 29%. On the Republican side, the winner was Mike Huckabee (34%), followed by Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%) and Ron Paul (10%). “People really are more important than the purse,” said Huckabee (in reference to Romney’s well-funded campaign), “and what a great lesson for America to learn.” But there was still a long way to go in both races.