Strategy&Future

The Ukrainian-Russian War: An Assessment of Risks, Scenarios and Theatres of War. Part 5 of 5

The Ukrainian-Russian War: An Assessment of Risks, Scenarios and Theatres of War. Part 4 of 5

The Ukrainian-Russian War: An Assessment of Risks, Scenarios and Theatres of War. Part 3 of 5

The Ukrainian-Russian War: An Assessment of Risks, Scenarios and Theatres of War. Part 2 of 5

2021 will be the anniversary of Ukrainian independence and 30 years since the fall of the Soviet Union. It will be a time to bring to the table some achievements that have occurred since the declaration of independence.

The American President W. Wilson touched upon the problem of Odessa: “I was struck by the words in the telegrams we read: The population of Odessa is hostile to us. If this is so, then you can ask a question: why keep this island surrounded and almost submerged by communism? This strengthens me in my policy, that Russia should be left to the Bolsheviks, and we should limit ourselves to the fact that we will prevent Bolshevism from penetrating into other European countries.”

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Nicholas Myers on the Russian deployments around Eastern Ukraine and military options Russia could consider.

The Euromaidan protests in Kyiv started on 21st November 2013 after President Viktor Yanukovich announced Ukraine’s suspension of an association agreement with the EU, meaning the East European country would instead seek closer ties with Moscow. This was a post-colour revolution.

Ridvan Bari Urcosta and Marek Budzisz (Strategy&Future, based in Warsaw, Poland) talk to Sergiy Gerasymchuk (the Deputy Executive Director, Regional Initiatives and Neighborhood Program Director of a network-based non-governmental analytical center “Ukrainian Prism”) on Moldova, Ukraine and Polish-Ukrainian relations.

Ukraine’s Search for security: from NATO and PESCO to bipartisan relations with independent players (the US, the UK, Turkey). Part 2

The United Kingdom has approached the final stage of Brexit. London is thinking about the post-Brexit period of its history and is searching for a new post-Brexit grand strategy, both in terms of its economy and in terms of its defense. Ukraine and the Black Sea are of great strategic importance to the UK. Since 2014, the Black Sea has become one of the most militarized and dangerous seas in the World Ocean along with the South China Sea and the Eastern part of the Mediterranean. Finally, the Great Britain is returning to the Black Sea region. As once during the Crimean (Eastern) War, The British warships and British soldiers will be present in the Northern Black Sea region. Again, the Crimean Peninsula has become a bone of contention.

The main geopolitical imperative of Ukraine is to find a way to maintain its social and political resilience together with the territorial integrity of the country. Ukraine faces internal and external challenges and all these challenges are deeply intertwined among one another. The main external challenge is the possibility of upcoming Russian aggression, both military kinetic and non-kinetic. As a solution, the Ukrainian leadership sees that the only exit from this geopolitical equation is NATO membership.