Strategy&Future

How would the situation in Europe and in the world have developed if Kyiv had been captured by the Russians in the first days of the war? I am of the opinion that despite all the risks associated with posing such counterfactual questions, it is worth asking them. Firstly, because I have the impression that in Poland we are not fully aware of how close we were to a catastrophe in the first days of the war in Ukraine. Secondly, because the war in Ukraine continues, its end result is by no means known and the dangers that Poland would face in the event of a quick victory for Russia in February are still hanging over us.

To understand the current course of the war in Ukraine, we must go to the Marxist theory of war, which serves as the foundation for Russian military doctrine. The Marxist school of the war teaches that war is a continuation of politics, a premise taken from Clausewitz.

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Assaf Heller and Omer Dank from Israel on the future of the modern airwarfare.

The war in Ukraine is escalating from one stage of the escalation ladder into another, but much higher than the previous, and no end to the war is feasible on the horizon. Ukraine is a negligible front in the grand game of grand players, but the aftermaths of the Russo-Ukrainian War will have paramount importance to world history.

Usually, when Russian military strategists or statesmen speak about military theories or doctrine, they concern with the global or regional character rather than explaining the theory of the war at the tactical level. In the recent past, this sometimes created the impression that they were preparing for a short, small war or a big nuclear war and almost nothing about the macro-level traditional European war we are witnessing in Ukraine.

According to Forbes Ukraine, TDEK Energo, owned by the largest Ukrainian oligarch, Rinat Akhmetov, is currently worth around $580 million due to the war, while before 24th February it was valued at almost $2 billion.[1] The company lost one of its heat and power plants in Luhansk, but this is not the main reason for the “discount”.

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Israeli experts on air & space power and perfect model for Poland’s air power.

Russia has been forced to cooperate closely with UK and US space companies, more than ever, in achieving their common goal, which is to continue their global dominance in the Earth’s orbit. Maybe, this will spur British and American investors to create one paramount gigantic company that will unite the investors in Washington and London.

Space is the mother of war in the 21st century. Without space technologies, war would immediately be brought back to the first half of the 20th century. Armies would be myopic compared with contemporary armies. Modern logistics, communications and cybersecurity fully depend on the space domain.

ussia is currently using the old strategy of “Artillery is the God of War”. It is often possible to see how Russian experts are discussing the importance of artillery.

The war in Ukraine is study time for military strategists throughout the world, who have been closely observing, learning and examining every move made on both sides of the battlefield. However, the most interesting for all specialists is the integration of the new technologies and capabilities to the principles of the traditional kinetic warfare like satellites, drones, communications, etc.

Just as one hundred years ago, the war did not bring about the establishment of a federation, despite the Kyiv expedition, Ukrainian attempts supported by Poland, great victories of the Polish soldiers near Warsaw and on the Niemen River. So now, without a clear break-up of Russian troops and the taking of territories, the war will not eliminate Russia and will not give Ukraine proper breathing space to live. The same applies to us too, because a game for the continental consolidation of France and Germany will soon appear. It could also be different with the Americans if a war with China broke out.