Strategy&Future

Last week brought a slew of diplomatic activity in the Eastern Europe. Mike Pompeo visited in Minsk and while there promised to cover all of Belarus’ oil demand. In Ukraine, Turkish President Recep Erdogan tightened Ankara’s relations with Ukraine and its new President Vladimir Zelensky against the Russian Federation as retaliation for Russian actions in Syria against rebels in Idlib. In Poland was Emmanuel Macron arrived in Warsaw, something which by both sides considered as to be a breakthrough.

Pompeo travels to Kiev and Minsk; Germany and Turkey seek closer economic ties with Ukraine; Moldova slowly re-orientates itself towards the East. Minsk unexpectedly orders a comprehensive combat readiness of the Armed Forces of Belarus, and an answer to the Collective Security Treaty Organization under the leadership of Russia preparing own its exercises in Belarus.

The first global geopolitical events of 2020 were rapid and alarming. The consequences for the entire year are still unknown. Last week, the world was occupied with the Middle East – the events were happening so fast and unpredictably, that nobody knew what would come next and many expected the worst scenarios. The escalation strangely coincided with Putin’s visit to the Middle East.

In the opening statement at Strategy&Future we articulated last summer the desire to share with our subscribers the Central & Eastern European aka European Intermarium perspective on world affairs, permanently influenced by the fluid balance of power in Eurasia and elsewhere in an increasingly volatile and fragile security environment that badly needs to be understood, not only by political and military leaders but also by individuals and business leaders.

The West is witnessing a new challenger in the Middle East that does not comply itself with the traditional Western hegemony to the region that had been lasting for decades.

Zapisy konwencji z Montreux znacznie ograniczyły sowieckie ambicje w drugiej połowie XX wieku, kiedy w latach 60. Sowieci mierzyli się z 6 Flotą.

The Montreux Convention deeply undermined the Soviets’ ambitions in the second half of the XX century, when the priorities had changed and the Soviet assets had to cope with the US Sixth Fleet.

If we assume that Russia had any geopolitical obsession, consequently we would not be able to find many of them that have survived throughout the centuries of Russia’s imperial rise.