Strategy&Future

“And when all Israel heard the judgement which the King had pronounced, they feared the King: for they saw that the wisdom of God was in him, to do judgement.” 1 Kings 3:28 But Jesus knew their hypocrisy. ‘Why are you trying to trap me?’ he asked. ‘Bring me a denarius, and let me look at it.’ They brought the coin, and he asked them, ‘Whose image is this? And whose inscription?’ ‘Caesar’s,’ they replied. Then Jesus said to them, ‘Give back to Caesar what is Caesar’s and to God what is God’s.’ And they were amazed at him.” Mark 12:13-17

Tiers for Rears: A General Classification of Military Logistics in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Part 2

The war in Ukraine is a unique geopolitical event that resembles and combines many previous international and revolutionary wars that changed the course of history. It has every chance to surpass many other wars the West and Russia have faced, both offensive and defensive, since 1945. This is a protracted global war, the winner of which will be defined as the one who is able to sustain social cohesiveness, economic and industrial power the longest and who can most effectively gain friends beyond the system of satellites.

Nic nie wskazuje na to, aby trwająca od roku wojna na Ukrainie miała się szybko zakończyć. Wygląda raczej na to, że wojna nie osiągnęła jeszcze apogeum, a ten rok będzie tylko kolejnym aktem w długim geopolitycznym dramacie na kontynencie europejskim.

Mimo ogromnej pomocy wojskowej, gospodarczej, socjalnej i finansowej z Zachodu ukraińska gospodarka i sytuacja społeczna będą się pogarszać. Jeśli wojna potrwa jeszcze pół roku, a Kreml zdecyduje się kontynuować systematyczne ataki na ukraińską infrastrukturę energetyczną w ramach zimowych operacji wojskowych, istnieje ogromne niebezpieczeństwo, że Ukraina dołączy do grupy państw upadłych, takich jak Syria, Jemen czy Libia, które ucierpiały w wyniku geopolitycznej konfrontacji między Wschodem a Zachodem. Jeśli sytuacja związana z dostawami energii elektrycznej nie ustabilizuje się w najbliższym czasie, największy kryzys humanitarny w Europie od 1945 roku może okazać się nieunikniony.

After the debacle in Kharkiv, the Russian Army forced the Russian leadership to search for the proper answer to the new military challenges. It seems the panacea has been found in mobilisation. Officially it has been called partial mobilisation, but all the evidence points us to believe that it is overwhelming and large in scale. Russia is accumulating more manpower than was officially announced. It looks like Moscow is preparing a considerable force to create full domination on the frontline.

Russia has been forced to cooperate closely with UK and US space companies, more than ever, in achieving their common goal, which is to continue their global dominance in the Earth’s orbit. Maybe, this will spur British and American investors to create one paramount gigantic company that will unite the investors in Washington and London.

ussia is currently using the old strategy of “Artillery is the God of War”. It is often possible to see how Russian experts are discussing the importance of artillery.

Space is the mother of war in the 21st century. Without space technologies, war would immediately be brought back to the first half of the 20th century. Armies would be myopic compared with contemporary armies. Modern logistics, communications and cybersecurity fully depend on the space domain.

The war in Ukraine is study time for military strategists throughout the world, who have been closely observing, learning and examining every move made on both sides of the battlefield. However, the most interesting for all specialists is the integration of the new technologies and capabilities to the principles of the traditional kinetic warfare like satellites, drones, communications, etc.

The situation in the Donbas is not desperate for the Ukrainian Armed Forces but it is very difficult. From one side, logic suggests that they would be better to withdraw to a more secure position and win the time for regrouping and building effective zones of resistance in Central Ukraine. On the other hand, Kyiv is the victim of its own political rhetoric because it is constantly delivering to the public the idea that Ukraine is going to win and the Russian Forces are suffering heavy losses. The only dramatic losses which Russia had were during the “March to Kyiv”. Despite this, Russia recognises that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are a serious threat and enemy.

The Russo-Ukrainian War is historical in many senses but in future, it will likely be known as the war that triggered the space race in the 21st century, just as the war in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 spurred and revealed to the world the drone warfare revolution. More precisely, the Russo-Ukrainian War has revealed to the world new principles of space warfare and has triggered more than even a global space race. A century ago, the great powers struggled for control of choke points and domination in the sea, air and land domains because all-domain superiority was the recipe for success. Today, the war in Ukraine shows that without space superiority, there is no way to think about global domination. It is the genuine beginning of the Astropolitics era in human history.