Strategy&Future

At the beginning of the 20th century, almost 260,000 Russian troops were stationed in the Polish theatre of war, including 216,000 in Congress Poland itself, of which 170,000 on the right bank of the Vistula, while on the left only 46,000 – mainly cavalry, used to identify the opponent’s direction of the attack. In a situation where the left bank of the Vistula was as densely populated in places as in England and Belgium, and in growing urban centres there was developed industry, the right bank was mainly villages and agricultural areas.

Both orientations of Polish foreign policy – “Piast” and “Jagiellonian” must deal with the problem emanating from the Smolensk Gate towards Warsaw, to the decision-making and dispositional centre of the Polish state. Due to the geographical arrangement, Russia can pull at the door handle to the Polish state from the Smolensk Gate through the Brest Gate and the Przemyśl Gate.

“While other defensive states have fortified ports with water, mountains inaccessible, we have nothing … The fields and roads leading to Poland from all directions are perfect for the enemy, spacious; he will act, give way, enter, leave, get food, and take prisoners as and where he wants. In our very hands, in our breasts and in our throats, our munitions are our mountains, our waters, and the castles, walls and embankments of Poland.” – a certain Grabowski, 16th century

“While other defensive states have fortified ports with water, mountains inaccessible, we have nothing … The fields and roads leading to Poland from all directions are perfect for the enemy, spacious; he will act, give way, enter, leave, get food, and take prisoners as and where he wants. In our very hands, in our breasts and in our throats, our munitions are our mountains, our waters, and the castles, walls and embankments of Poland.” – a certain Grabowski, 16th century

It is now 100 years since the signing of the peace treaty in Riga, which ended Poland’s war in the east with Soviet Russia and established relations in our part of the world for the following 20 years. Then Tehran, Yalta, Potsdam and the end of World War II, closed the chapter of the Jagiellonian foreign policy of Poland. Or so it would seem.

I have had the intention of writing these few sentences for some time, watching the debate around the rapidly changing international scene and the accompanying public debate in Poland and abroad. But let me start with a series of questions?

The Last 21 Years: (2)011

Europe is part of “Western civilisation”, to which, apart from Europe itself, it is customary to include all its (regrettably, usually evolved as a result of rape) “children”: primarily North America, with the United States as a global power, and Latin America, with Brazil growing in importance in the global puzzle, as well as the area of ​​Australia and Oceania.

Michael J. Mazarr, analysing conflicts in the “grey zone” in 2015, as part of a project initiated by the Strategic Studies Institute focusing on the changing nature of contemporary conflicts, attempted to formulate seven hypotheses about the future. It is worth recalling them now.

Poland in Great Power Competition – Jacek Bartosiak, Nicholas Myers and Zbigniew Pisarski debate the video presentation describing the interactions Poland had with US, China and Russia in 2019-2020.

Jacek Bartosiak, Ridvan Bari Urcosta and Gustav Gressel talk about Germany’s foreign policy in the era of great power competition and turbulent times ahead.

The phrase “up in the air” perfectly captures the world at the beginning of 2009 (and, arguably, ever since). So, we have this from Cambridge English Dictionary: “If a matter is up in the air, it is uncertain, often because other matters have to be decided first.” This from Collins Dictionary: “If you say that a decision or a situation is up in the air, you mean that it has not yet been completely settled or planned.” And this from the Macmillan Dictionary: “if a plan is up in the air, you have not yet decided what will happen.”