Strategy&Future

Jacek Bartosiak of Strategy&Future, Warsaw and Velina Tchakarova of AIES, Vienna debate the great power competition in Eurasia, connectivity supply chains, EU-China deal and the future of Europe.

“The numbers tell us this was a debate between change and experience, and change won.” CNN’s Bill Schneider was referring to the Iowa Democratic Primary on 3rd January 2008 won by Barack Obama (38%), followed by John Edwards 30% and Hillary Clinton 29%. On the Republican side, the winner was Mike Huckabee (34%), followed by Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%) and Ron Paul (10%). “People really are more important than the purse,” said Huckabee (in reference to Romney’s well-funded campaign), “and what a great lesson for America to learn.” But there was still a long way to go in both races.

“There is only one god – Poseidon – god of the sea; there is only one legitimate church confessing this god – and that is the United States Navy, ruling the waves of the World Ocean. And Alfred T. Mahan is the true prophet of this god and this church”. Film by Hubert Walas.

I repeat, because this is an important mental exercise – Russia is needed by the Western powers because of:

This is actually not a report yet, but rather an account of what we have already done and indeed where we are going. From the very beginning of S&F’s existence, we wanted to implement the idea of dealing with Russian pressure against the interests of the Polish Republic, thus responding to the needs of the present, increasingly troubled times. Dealing with the broad spectrum of instruments of the new generation of Russian warfare from a strategic point of view, not only a strictly military one. I think we have already done a lot at S&F. In the coming year 2021, we want to heat up the Poland’s public debate on this topic.

The theory of global free trade is fashionable now, just as it was before the First World War. According to it, different parts of the world develop differently, depending on the possibilities and resources. But at the same time, by specialising in a given field of industry or service, they naturally produce a division of tasks over time. It was once believed that in this way the peace, development and brotherhood of mankind would be ensured.

Ihor Kabanenko is a retired admiral with the Ukrainian Navy. From 1983 to 1990, he served in the Soviet Navy in various positions up to Commander of the ship and Chief of Staff of Missile Ships Division. Since 1993, he served in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He was appointed to the positions of Chief of Operations and Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Navy, the Military Representative of Ukraine to NATO, Chief of Operations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the First Deputy Chief of Defence. He retired in 2013, with the rank of Admiral. From May to August 2014, Admiral Kabanenko served as the Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense, and from August to October 2014—as Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine for European Integration. Currently, he is the president of UA.RPA (Ukrainian Advanced Research Project Agency), which focuses on high-tech solutions and products for defense.

As I wrote earlier, we are worried on the Vistula River about American security guarantees under the new administration in Washington. But this is not everything. Even if the US involvement in relations with Poland is maintained, it is necessary to answer a question that has long been troubling us: Does the formula of the “light” US footprint (as is currently the case) support the basic interests of Poland in the face of the reconstruction of the world order?

The Baltic Sea “turns” near the mouths of the Vistula and the Niemen to the north at the very length in which the Black Sea as the most distant outlet of the Mediterranean Sea extends far to the north. The Baltic-Black Sea Bridge (aka Intermarium) is located here. Our place in the world. (film by Hubert Walas)

Opened in December 2005, the Donghai Bridge — connecting mainland Shanghai with a new deepwater container port on the islands of Yangshan in Hangzhou Bay 32.5km away — was not the world’s longest cross-water bridge. The Lake Pontchartrain Causeway in New Orleans, completed in the 1960s, was longer. But Donghai (meaning East China Sea) Bridge was a very concrete symbol of China’s ambitions to dominate world trade.

And again, on the Vistula River, we are worried whether our security guarantees will not change after the US elections. Politics is indeed a dynamic, not a static condition. The competition never ends.

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Peter Zeihan on the chaotic times that are coming and will last for another generation, on decoupling, deglobalization, and on the need for consolidation in Europe.