Strategy&Future

Structural issues, i.e. a set of conflicting interests between the United States and China, prevent them from getting out of the spiral of growing rivalry in the summer of 2023. The political imbalance in and around Eurasia is growing, and with it more and more tensions and disputes, and the mutual perception of both these powers, both in terms of mutual intentions and, perhaps above all, the possibility of harming the other side in the globalised flows of the world economy and not only there. Now or in the near future. This begs the question of the leadership of both countries, and how the leaders are coping in a dynamic situation of growing distrust with a large number of contentious current issues. But also in the context of events and decisions that may be taken or will occur in the future: from the embargo on semiconductors and bans on cooperation in the development of artificial intelligence, through the ban on the export of machines for the production of new technologies.

Weekly Brief 17–23.06.2023

Jacek Bartosiak o sojuszu AUKUS, globalnym przemyśle motoryzacyjnym, skalowalnej wojnie i sankcjach na Japonię przed II wojną światową.

It may sound like a paradox but the primary beneficiaries of the multipolar world are the countries of the Global South. The Central Asian republics and many other former colonial states (including those states who suffered due to neocolonialism) have finally found the panacea, which is multipolarity.

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Adm. (ret.) William McRaven (retired United States Navy four-star admiral who served as the ninth commander of the United States Special Operations Command (SOCOM) (2011-2014), commander of Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) (2008-2011), commander of Special Operations Command Europe (SOCEUR) (2006-2008), chancellor of The University of Texas System (2015-2018)) on the evolution of modern battlefield.

W 1799 r. jeden z ojców założycieli Stanów Zjednoczonych, ówczesny wiceprezydent północnoamerykańskiej republiki (a w latach 1801–1809 jej trzeci prezydent), Thomas Jefferson w jednym ze swoich listów napisał: „Handel ze wszystkimi narodami, sojusz z żadnym to powinno być nasze motto” („Commerce with all nations, alliance with none, should be our motto”).

Weekly Brief 3–9.06.2023

Jacek Bartosiak i zespół S&F rozmawiają o przemówieniu Macrona, Blinkena, planach polskich wobec Litwy i konferencji w Shangri-La.

Italy’s invasion of Ethiopia before World War II was the first serious opportunity to test the effectiveness of economic sanctions, the economic weapon of the then “international community” — the League of Nations. Specifically, how these sanctions worked in practice against a large state with an industrial base and a real army. Previously, sanctions had been applied only to weak states: Yugoslavia and Greece. The parallels between that situation and the current state of world affairs are amazing. Then, it concerned the balance in Europe and its surroundings: today, it concerns the balance of the entire global system. Then, it ended in a kinetic world war: today, we’ll see how it ends. For now, we have a fierce rivalry that some time ago I called a scalable world war, which stems from an imbalance of the international system. The parallels between the situation 85 years ago and now, which I will draw on in this and subsequent articles in our new series on sanctions, are very instructive.

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Captain James „Kimo” Fanell, Former Director of Intelligence and Information Operations for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, US Navy, on the war over Taiwan (Video)

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Captain James “Kimo” Fanell, Former Director of Intelligence and Information Operations for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, US Navy, on the war over Taiwan (Video)

Weekly Brief 13–19.05.2023