Strategy&Future

Earlier this month, I participated in a debate at a fairly large event, which is the annual Warsaw Security Forum. The debate concerned the shape of the new strategic concept of the North Atlantic Alliance, which would be a document navigating us through increasingly turbulent times. Apart from the moderator and me, the debate was attended by representatives of the NATO bureaucracy and a very famous expert-analyst of international affairs from Germany. In the course of this discussion, something became clear to me and it was ultimately a very sad observation.

The Russo-Georgian War in 2008 was not a challenge for the Georgian Armed Forces exclusively, but also for Russia. In fact, the consequences of the war triggered the process of the modernisation of the Russian Armed Forces. Moscow found many mistakes and operational malfunctions in the actions of its army against the Georgian Army. However, one Russian military community insider is particularly proud of the operation that was conducted during the war in the Georgian cities of Poti and Senaki. This operation was accomplished by the 45th Guards Spetsnaz (Special Purpose) Brigade.

Forming new alliances like AUKUS or the QUAD does not mean creating new blocs. “Inter-epoch” alliances, for the time in which we find ourselves, will be less formalised and more loosely structured. “Old” blocs such as NATO or the European Union noticeably lose their maneuverability. They are slow to react and difficult to reform. New alliances, on the other hand, may be less durable despite their flexibility and suddenly end their lives. We must therefore be ready for many sudden twists and turns in world politics.

The New Generation Warfare (NGW) revolution is not only exclusively about warfare but is about the comprehensive revolution inside the entire military realm and in the supplementary sectors. In history, we have witnessed at least several NGW revolutions and every revolution had its own historical, social, and technological specificities.

“Ministers come and ministers go, even dictators die, but mountain ranges stand unperturbed.” „Since the Red Sea parted for Moses and the sun obligingly paused for Joshua, the human will have been unable to recapture the control over topography and climate exhibited by those forceful gentlemen, and it is probably safe to say that it was by Russian geography rather than by men that the diminutive Corsican was finally defeated.” Nicholas Spykman, 1938

Just as art arises from the meeting of culture with circumstances, and just as great art arises from an encounter with extraordinary circumstances, the way of waging war is a meeting of the strategic culture of a state with extreme circumstances, bringing death and destruction, sometimes even the end of that state.

The Great Game of the XXI century is not only about Afghanistan anymore. This time, it is about a struggle by the Land Powers to bite into the World Ocean and to undermine the West’s monopoly over it and the Freedom of Navigation concept. The task of the West is to keep them inside their landmasses. It is certain now that whoever wins this episode of history, will define history until the next leap of Humanity into the new Space domain. The Black Sea (with the Eastern Mediterranean) and the South China Sea are only small episodes of the global rivalry; yet, they are the epicentres of this rivalry in Eurasia and the outcome will have global repercussions.

The Southern Caucasus is one of the most dangerous hotspots on the Eurasian continent. For centuries, the region has attracted regional and global players. Its small nations exist constantly under the pressure of three crucial Eurasian powers: Russia, Turkey and Iran. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the presence of the European Union and the United States was visible in the region.

Mental maps for the Polish elite in 2021

(Fot. Wikimedia Commons)

Taiwan and Crimea have many interesting similarities both in terms of their geopolitical and geostrategic importance and in terms of historic and cultural narratives for China and Russia. It seems that the leaders of both countries are committed to the idea of “collecting lost lands.”

War Vs Peace Unit Update Report #10. May 2021