Strategy&Future

Jacek Bartosiak and Albert Świdziński talk to Louis-Vincent Gave on the structural imbalance in world economy and about the coming future.

Tiers for Rears: A General Classification of Military Logistics in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Part 2

Australia has entered into an alliance with the US and UK called AUKUS, which we at S&F refer to as the alliance of the nations of the World Ocean, aimed at preventing the consolidation of the Eurasian landmass under the sceptre of China. Australia concluded this alliance despite the obvious risk of its geopolitical location — as an unsinkable “guardian” of China’s oceanic communication route to Africa, Europe and the Middle East, just behind the “moat” of the Indonesian straits and the protruding Anglo-Saxon border in the southern hemisphere, remaining in communication through the South Pacific with US bases in the Carolinas, Guam and Hawaii. The risk for Australia is high: its position has changed from comfortable — when Europe was the source of wars, to quite difficult, when China has become the factory of the world in the era of globalisation, and the American hegemon of the ocean is letting the world know that China’s road to hegemony does not find the slightest approval in Washington.

Jacek Bartosiak and Albert Świdziński of S&F on the observations from Munich Security Conference.

The war in Ukraine continues. Its course emphasises the very significant influence of the USA on the political system of Europe. At the same time, a “rebellion of the periphery” is being carried out through an attempt to reduce the power of Germany and France in the European Union by Central and Eastern Europe with Poland at the forefront. In this combined context, we (in Poland) are not reaching out enough to the Scandinavian countries with joint initiatives: in particular, to Sweden, Finland and Norway – let’s skip Denmark as an insignificant player in the political game in Europe. These countries are a multiplier of the potential of our region, which wants to be supported by the Anglo-Saxons, through liaison with the Atlantic policy of the USA. The Scandinavians unanimously share this geostrategic orientation and have real troops and real importance in the clash with Russia.

Jacek Bartosiak and Albert Świdziński of S&F – View From Poland: World in Turmoil, part 2. 01/2023. Russian plans and future of Europe.

Jacek Bartosiak and Albert Świdziński of S&F – View From Poland: World in Turmoil, part 1 (January 2023).

Albert Świdziński and Patty-Jane Geller discuss the Biden Administration 2022 Nuclear Posture Review.

Despite receiving enormous military, economic, social, and financial assistance from the West, the Ukrainian economy and social situation is going to deteriorate. If we see a continuation of the war for the next half a year and the Kremlin decides to continue its systematic attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure as part of its winter military operations, there is a great danger that Ukraine is going to join the group of disaster zones that have appeared in Syria, Yemen and Libya as a result of the geopolitical confrontation between East and West. If the situation with electricity does not stabilize in the near future, the greatest humanitarian crisis in Europe since 1945 might be inevitable.

Ukraine and Russia are facing a completely new stage in the escalation of hostilities. The war is gradually changing its shape, form and perspective. It has become more aggressive and unpredictable – towards total war with total mobilisation of the entire economy, society and technological power of the belligerent states and their global allies. One of the realistic scenarios which will implement the whole belligerence of a fight between two sides is the possible upcoming battle of Kherson.

Almost exactly sixty years ago, in October 1962, the Cuban crisis took place. Speaking on Thursday 6th October, at a meeting with donors supporting the Democratic party’s campaign for the Congressional by-elections, President Biden stated that “For the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis, we have a direct threat to the use of nuclear weapons, if in fact things continue down the path they’d been going.” It is worth noting that Biden was referring not to situations where a nuclear weapon could be used in the course of an unintentional escalation (i.e., for example, during the Able Archer ’83 exercise), but as a result of structural factors.

After the debacle in Kharkiv, the Russian Army forced the Russian leadership to search for the proper answer to the new military challenges. It seems the panacea has been found in mobilisation. Officially it has been called partial mobilisation, but all the evidence points us to believe that it is overwhelming and large in scale. Russia is accumulating more manpower than was officially announced. It looks like Moscow is preparing a considerable force to create full domination on the frontline.