Strategy&Future

Jacek Bartosiak and Albert Świdziński on ending the Ukraine War, deploying Polish troops to Ukraine, and US ambiguous strategy.

How would the situation in Europe and in the world have developed if Kyiv had been captured by the Russians in the first days of the war? I am of the opinion that despite all the risks associated with posing such counterfactual questions, it is worth asking them. Firstly, because I have the impression that in Poland we are not fully aware of how close we were to a catastrophe in the first days of the war in Ukraine. Secondly, because the war in Ukraine continues, its end result is by no means known and the dangers that Poland would face in the event of a quick victory for Russia in February are still hanging over us.

Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan begins a new era of confrontation between the US and China, and with it, marks the beginning of an already open conflict over Eurasia, this unique place where world history takes place and world wars are fought. It begins an era of war slightly different than the previous world wars, because it is scalable. Each of the subsequent system wars was obviously different from the previous one, so there is no surprise here. This time, in a scalable clash, each side will try to force its interests through various domains of contemporary dependencies in a densely globalised world that will be violently split open before our eyes.

We have long proposed at Strategy&Future to increase Poland’s activity “in the eastern direction”, in particular in Ukraine. We’ve written about the importance of a policy aimed at keeping Russia outside the European system, which Poland would not be able to achieve on its own without Ukraine’s participation. We’ve emphasised the importance of supply chains and control over the flows of goods and commodities.

Jacek Bartosiak talks to Israeli experts on air & space power and perfect model for Poland’s air power.

The war in Ukraine unleashed by Russia represents the most serious challenge that has been faced by the United States since the end of the Cold War, a clear challenge to both the international order and the rules of the road established by Washington during the unipolar moment. In fact, the most important postulate that was part of the list of demands made by Russia against the collective West in December 2021 was the recognition of Russia’s right to have its own sphere of influence – and thus accepting its imperial status.

Now, with the war in Ukraine raging, and an open challenge to the international order being laid down by Russia in a way not witnessed in Europe since the end of the second world war we believe it is critically important to have the perspective of the Intermarium states heard louder than ever before. With that in mind we decided to launch the Intermarium Strategic Survey – a cyclical and in-depth review of key trends and developments affecting the structural balance of power in Central and Eastern Europe, from the Baltic to the Black sea. Intermarium Strategic Survey will take form of a bundle of texts published on Strategy&Future website, both most recent and archival, delivered on a monthly basis via email.

Just as one hundred years ago, the war did not bring about the establishment of a federation, despite the Kyiv expedition, Ukrainian attempts supported by Poland, great victories of the Polish soldiers near Warsaw and on the Niemen River. So now, without a clear break-up of Russian troops and the taking of territories, the war will not eliminate Russia and will not give Ukraine proper breathing space to live. The same applies to us too, because a game for the continental consolidation of France and Germany will soon appear. It could also be different with the Americans if a war with China broke out.

A few remarks on the political strategy of the Polish state in the new European circumstances (theses for discussion)

At the beginning of the 21st century, two main geopolitical visions were formed in the European Union.

Jacek Bartosiak and Nicholas Myers discuss the operational and tactical details of the war in Ukraine, as of afternoon 25 Feb 2022.

The main take-away points from the events in Belarus from the summer of 2020 (the unrest of the pro-Western factions of Belarusian civil society) until the current refugee crisis on the Belarusian border with the EU are the following: